Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC

Little to no moisture = COLDER



Also a 1062 MB High near the US/Canadian border

[Iceresistance]

Every Gefs member shows ice for TX at some point by hour 192

Can I see what all of the GEFS members at +192 Hours show?

[InfernoFlameCat]

If they keep this around in the next run, it might not be a fantasy. I can see this scenario as plausible then.

[Quixotic]

1061 mb would be close to the contiguous US record of 1064 during the December 83 outbreak.

I don't think Feb has a 1060+. If there was you would need to go back to Feb 1899.

Yep. DFW February pressure record is from 1899 at 1049.78

[InfernoFlameCat]

CMC shows something very similar to the GFS at hour 192. If they are on the same page ...

[Haris]

Every Gefs member shows ice for TX at some point by hour 192

Can I see what all of the GEFS members at +192 Hours show?

Go under Cod meteorology. Free site

[Iceresistance]

CMC shows something very similar to the GFS at hour 192. If they are on the same page ...

Only difference is that the GFS barely gets below Zero while the CMC goes 5 Below Zero.

[Iceresistance]

Every Gefs member shows ice for TX at some point by hour 192

Can I see what all of the GEFS members at +192 Hours show?

Go under Cod meteorology. Free site

Thanks for the site!

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is my favorite run this winter for GFS.

[Iceresistance]

Good news: GFS-Para is now running! Let's see what this model says about this potental "Central US Storm of the Century" . . .

[gpsnowman]

Man these maps are insanely cold. Maybe we are due for an epic outbreak. Wowzers. Let's see what the Euro says in a bit.

[Quixotic]

For reference, DFW hasn't been in the single digits since February of 1996.

[rwfromkansas]

Brr. While I usually hate cold without snow (post-chemo from 8 years ago I still get really cold hands very easily even if it's only 40-50 degrees)...but if it's going to get that cold, I don't mind if it's cold awhile before it snows just to experience it. Also, cold ground helps make even a minor snowstorm have bigger impacts. I will need to get some heavy-duty gloves. Lol.

[Iceresistance]

For reference, DFW hasn't been in the single digits since February of 1996.

It got down to 11 in 1996, last time it was in the single digits was in the December 1989, when it got down to 1

[Iceresistance]

Man these maps are insanely cold. Maybe we are due for an epic outbreak. Wowzers. Let's see what the Euro says in a bit.

GFS-Para also recently started

[gpsnowman]

For reference, DFW hasn't been in the single digits since February of 1996.

It got down to 11 in 1996, last time it was in the single digits was in the December 1989, when it got down to 1

December 23 1989 it got down to -1 in DFW. And the Feb 1996 temp was 8 I believe.

[Cpv17]

I would imagine we see a few more runs of the models showing this significant cold only to see them start slowly trending warmer with each passing run because we’ll be approaching the middle range soon and then slowly dropping back down again as we get within 3 days but they’ll probably never get back down to as cold as what they’re showing now. This is just from experience watching models over the past few years and that’s how they like to handle these Artic blasts. I’d put the chances of that actually verifying or come close to verifying at maybe 20% right now.

[Iceresistance]

For reference, DFW hasn't been in the single digits since February of 1996.

It got down to 11 in 1996, last time it was in the single digits was in the December 1989, when it got down to 1

December 23 1989 it got down to -1 in DFW. And the Feb 1996 temp was 8 I believe.

The 11 Degrees in 1996 & 1 Degrees in 1989 was recorded at the Airport

[Iceresistance]

I would imagine we see a few more runs of the models showing this significant cold only to see them start slowly trending warmer with each passing run because we’ll be approaching the middle range soon and then slowly dropping back down again as we get within 3 days but they’ll probably never get back down to as cold as what they’re showing now. This is just from experience watching models over the past few years and that’s how they like to handle these Artic blasts. I’d put the chances of that actually verifying or come close to verifying at maybe 20% right now.

Same for me, I put those chances at around 25% because I classified the model runs as 'Aggressive'

[Texas Snow]

The 11 Degrees in 1996 & 1 Degrees in 1989 was recorded at the Airport

it was -1 at the airport, not that 2 degrees is that big of a difference but getting to the other side of zero was kinda cool.

No chance the actual temps will be this cold but I can just hope they are directionally accurate and then we can get some precip which is hard down here with temps that cold.