Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just got the 9 Day forecast from KWTV-News 9 at 9 AM.

Once the Temperatures get down to the 20s as highs next week, it STAYS like that for a while.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-03-at-9.51.17-AM.png

Should be a similar forecast for me as I could throw a rock from my property and pretty much land it in OK.

[wxman22]

12z GFS PARA while not as cold as the operational run has most of the state below freezing for 72+ hours with wintry precip across the eastern half of the state.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro showing Sub 500MB Polar Vortex entering lower 48 mid-week next week...this one could be the real deal ladies and gentlemen!

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS-Para in the same general area for snow, calling for winter weather from 2 systems in the Southern Plains



1054 MB High over Montana.



Also nasty cold in the same time period. (Note: Only as far as 240 hour because it gets onto 12 hour intervals after that hour.)

[Quixotic]

For reference, DFW hasn't been in the single digits since February of 1996.

It got down to 11 in 1996, last time it was in the single digits was in the December 1989, when it got down to 1

Please read what I said and recheck. DFW hit 8 degrees with snow and sleet on the ground on February 4th of 1996. The last time it was below zero was December of 1989. First time I ever drank coffee because I had no heat in the car and my window was busted out.

[Iceresistance]

For reference, DFW hasn't been in the single digits since February of 1996.

It got down to 11 in 1996, last time it was in the single digits was in the December 1989, when it got down to 1

Please read what I said and recheck. DFW hit 8 degrees with snow and sleet on the ground on February 4th of 1996. The last time it was below zero was December of 1989. First time I ever drank coffee because I had no heat in the car and my window was busted out.

Checked, & yes, it was 8 in Feb. 1996 & Below Zero in December 1989.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro isn't particularly interesting or surprising, coldest air is associated with the TPV swinging through the northern and NE US and lower heights through that same are preventing anything coming out of the Pacific from amping up.

[txtwister78]

Many members show frozen precip on Wednesday as well (lighter amounts then).

[txtwister78]

The models will flip on precip/cold as it relates to timing but right now you have to like the general consensus being shown among all models regarding the potential for significant cold and some precip around. I still think ice is probably more likely with these airmasses unless we get a strong enough arctic high cold shot that doesn't modify as much with a combination of an upper low out of the SW and then you're looking at more snow potential (lower odds of that combo occurring). Put the prolonged cold signal on the map first and then let the rest play out. Ensembles still the best bet until we get into the weekend.

[WinterMax]

It's a perfect crash and burn scenario. Not trying to be debbie downer here, but that's like a once in my lifetime kind of cold, lol

[txtwister78]

It's a perfect crash and burn scenario. Not trying to be debbie downer here, but that's like a once in my lifetime kind of cold, lol

Throw the extremes out and find the in between. Why ensembles are better more than 5 days out. They tend to adjust better (colder/warmer) as you get closer to the time period in question (not as many wild swings).

[Portastorm]

It's a perfect crash and burn scenario. Not trying to be debbie downer here, but that's like a once in my lifetime kind of cold, lol

Throw the extremes out and find the in between. Why ensembles are better more than 5 days out. They tend to adjust better (colder/warmer) as you get closer to the time period in question (not as many wild swings).

Bingo!

BTW, mark me down as one who does not want that 12z GFS cold in Texas. Friends, that is pipe-busting cold the likes of which we have not seen in a long time. I still have bad memories of it getting down to 4 degrees here in Austin in 1989 and the misery that caused.

[WinterMax]

It's a perfect crash and burn scenario. Not trying to be debbie downer here, but that's like a once in my lifetime kind of cold, lol

Throw the extremes out and find the in between. Why ensembles are better more than 5 days out. They tend to adjust better (colder/warmer) as you get closer to the time period in question (not as many wild swings).

Bingo!

BTW, mark me down as one who does not want that 12z GFS cold in Texas. Friends, that is pipe-busting cold the likes of which we have not seen in a long time. I still have bad memories of it getting down to 4 degrees here in Austin in 1989 and the misery that caused.

Yeah, could be very expensive, dangerous and perhaps life threatening for some, count me as a no on that.

[orangeblood]

Really good agreement b/w every Global Ensemble Suite for later next week...Mean Temp Anomalies for next Friday Feb 12th. Confidence level increasing for a Major Arctic Outbreak into the lower 48!!

ENS


GEFS


GEPS

[Iceresistance]

The AO is going to be INSANELY Negative next week.



The PNA is mostly neutral by the same week.

[Iceresistance]

Really good agreement b/w every Global Ensemble Suite for later next week...Mean Temp Anomalies for next Friday Feb 12th. Confidence level increasing for a Major Arctic Outbreak into the lower 48!!

ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612353600/1613152800-PhDFlnDIXTs.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612353600/1613152800-qlYLAYh1cyc.png

GEPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612353600/1613152800-Cld9v487peY.png

My odds are now up to 40%!

[Cerlin]

Good discussion here on the forums recently! Just remember—trends, trends, trends!! No model is going to have it down perfectly right now but every model and ensemble is showing a cold arctic outbreak with plenty of chances for wintry weather. When looking at more than a week out I like to use my own 10° rule...whatever temperature the models are outputting, I assume it’ll run around 10 degrees cold than what it should be (i.e. if the GFS shows 30 I assume 40). That’s what has increased confidence for me about this pattern—even if the temperatures busted by 10-15°, it’d still be likely below freezing! So take all of these runs with a massive grain of salt, focus on the trends, and allow yourself to be excited without taking things as fact! Winter is my favorite season because we have all these storms to track and cold weather to break up the monotony of life—and these models are providing us with thrills they haven’t genuinely provided in half a decade.

[lrak]

Looks like I will be planting new tropicals later this spring and digging up all the dead ones after Valentine's Day.

And friends with fish ponds will be buying industrial aquarium heaters to keep their expensive fish alive.

[txtwister78]

Another encouraging signal (if you like cold)...MJO could be headed into phase 8 (much colder phase for our region than current 7).

[rwfromkansas]

Lots of good info here. Very interesting how things are playing out. I am glad to see the MJO cooperating. Is 8 typically wet?