Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has Storm #1 in the Southern Plains next weekend aided by a very strong High (1054 MB in North Dakota)



24-hour Snowfall


Nasty cold for a long while



(Also, the Polar Vortex has trended westward since 6z)

Storm #2 (The cold from Storm #1 is still there when Storm #2 arrives)

Quick-moving system with some snow in Oklahoma, Panhandle & Northern Texas.



Not much snow (Totals are glitched right now from the GFS after hour 324)

[Ntxw]

Much similar in the GFSv16. Typically in February if you are getting a 1048mb or greater HP system you're going to drive cold down into Mexico and the Gulf.

[harp]

Much similar in the GFSv16. Typically in February if you are getting a 1048mb or greater HP system you're going to drive cold down into Mexico and the Gulf.

I can't get it to run.

[BigB0882]

I leave for Florida early in the morning on Friday the 12th so I feel pretty sure this will happen. Lol

[Cpv17]

12Z Euro showing Sub 500MB Polar Vortex entering lower 48 mid-week next week...this one could be the real deal ladies and gentlemen!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1612353600/1613001600-ZS2Sb1ZZf7s.png

I feel like that’s a little too far east for Texas to get significant cold. Shouldn’t that be more over Montana and ND if we want significant cold down here?

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS-Para is further south with the snow . . . (Yes, Ice in Houston, TX)



Not as cold as 18z GFS, but still very cold.




Total Snowfall

[Iceresistance]

WPC is saying extremely cold temperatures is possible in the CONUS next week.

[TheProfessor]

Man, if this southeast snowstorm verifies, I may need to go chase it.

[Ntxw]

Snow cover won't be a problem for the cold to ooze right in. Not going to lie, as a weather geek this draconic -AO plummet is one for study that will manifest the NAO/PNA. Not since 2010 can we even buy a -2SD AO sustained and west based for a week! Only handful of times in your life will you witness such a feature -AO, that is not isolated this was building from December. Defying all forecast and each time going more and more negative. Anthony Masiello (one of the smartest brains imo) mention of the SSW-> lag result on this case situation was almost perfect.

Dr. Cohen's brief take.

 https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1357008033512116234

[Iceresistance]

Confidence level for Feb. 2021 Polar Vortex: 70%

Factors:

All models are consistent for this Polar Vortex to come into the Midwest next week & cause extremely low temperatures not seen since 2015.
The polar vortex is only 3-6 days away, the odds for this is increasing every day.

Confidence level for Winter Storm in the Southern Plains on the 2nd weekend of February: 40%

Factors:

Most models is showing a potent winter storm across the Southern Plains & into the Southeast fueled by a very strong High Pressure zone across the Northern Plains & into Canada.
The only reason why it's lower is because the trend for that potent storm is in the last 2 model runs (12z & 18z)

[Ntxw]

Confidence level for Feb. 2021 Polar Vortex: 70%

Factors:

All models are consistent for this Polar Vortex to come into the Midwest next week & cause extremely low temperatures not seen since 2015.
The polar vortex is only 3-6 days away, the odds for this is increasing every day.

Confidence level for Winter Storm in the Southern Plains on the 2nd weekend of February: 40%

Factors:

Most models is showing a potent winter storm across the Southern Plains & into the Southeast fueled by a very strong High Pressure zone across the Northern Plains & into Canada.
The only reason why it's lower is because the trend for that potent storm is in the last 2 model runs (12z & 18z)

Yes the polar vortex, Arctic Airmass, coldest air in the Northern Hem, however you want to call it is already pooled in Canada and moving south/southeast. A spoke will dip into the US late this weekend. As it continues to sit and pinwheel the -AO/NAO domain will shove the whole mass more and more south as it retrogrades. Each spoke sending a stronger front until the big HP system delivers.

[Lagreeneyes03]

18z GFS-Para is further south with the snow . . . (Yes, Ice in Houston, TX)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021020318.prateptype_cat.us_sc5c56184e37486572.gif

Not as cold as 18z GFS, but still very cold.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021020318.sfct.us_sc.gif


Total Snowfall
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

If the snow misses Northern DFW AGAIN I swear I'm going to spit nails.

[Iceresistance]

Confidence level for Feb. 2021 Polar Vortex: 70%

Factors:

All models are consistent for this Polar Vortex to come into the Midwest next week & cause extremely low temperatures not seen since 2015.
The polar vortex is only 3-6 days away, the odds for this is increasing every day.

Confidence level for Winter Storm in the Southern Plains on the 2nd weekend of February: 40%

Factors:

Most models is showing a potent winter storm across the Southern Plains & into the Southeast fueled by a very strong High Pressure zone across the Northern Plains & into Canada.
The only reason why it's lower is because the trend for that potent storm is in the last 2 model runs (12z & 18z)

Yes the polar vortex, Arctic Airmass, coldest air in the Northern Hem, however you want to call it is already pooled in Canada and moving south/southeast. A spoke will dip into the US late this weekend. As it continues to sit and pinwheel the -AO/NAO domain will shove the whole mass more and more south as it retrogrades. Each spoke sending a stronger front until the big HP system delivers.

There is always a chance that will change, I usually keep crazy winter predictions lower in La Nina winters. And how crazy Oklahoma weather can be.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS-Para is further south with the snow . . . (Yes, Ice in Houston, TX)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021020318.prateptype_cat.us_sc5c56184e37486572.gif

Not as cold as 18z GFS, but still very cold.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021020318.sfct.us_sc.gif


Total Snowfall
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

If the snow misses Northern DFW AGAIN I swear I'm going to spit nails.

The first DFW snow in the 2020-2021 Winter was oofed by subborn dryness in the northern part & less snow than expected in the Dallas Metro.

[Ntxw]

Confidence level for Feb. 2021 Polar Vortex: 70%

Factors:

All models are consistent for this Polar Vortex to come into the Midwest next week & cause extremely low temperatures not seen since 2015.
The polar vortex is only 3-6 days away, the odds for this is increasing every day.

Confidence level for Winter Storm in the Southern Plains on the 2nd weekend of February: 40%

Factors:

Most models is showing a potent winter storm across the Southern Plains & into the Southeast fueled by a very strong High Pressure zone across the Northern Plains & into Canada.
The only reason why it's lower is because the trend for that potent storm is in the last 2 model runs (12z & 18z)

Yes the polar vortex, Arctic Airmass, coldest air in the Northern Hem, however you want to call it is already pooled in Canada and moving south/southeast. A spoke will dip into the US late this weekend. As it continues to sit and pinwheel the -AO/NAO domain will shove the whole mass more and more south as it retrogrades. Each spoke sending a stronger front until the big HP system delivers.

There is always a chance that will change, I usually keep crazy winter predictions lower in La Nina winters. And how crazy Oklahoma weather can be.

It could. One way being a drastically under-forecasted bad Pacific, which hasn't shown up yet. The fluctuations are due to the models nudging the cold slightly in this direction or that direction with drastic outcomes. In early 2017 we got down to the low teens with a much weaker pattern and even less cold air mass. It wouldn't take much for this to deliver.

[Iceresistance]

Yes the polar vortex, Arctic Airmass, coldest air in the Northern Hem, however you want to call it is already pooled in Canada and moving south/southeast. A spoke will dip into the US late this weekend. As it continues to sit and pinwheel the -AO/NAO domain will shove the whole mass more and more south as it retrogrades. Each spoke sending a stronger front until the big HP system delivers.

There is always a chance that will change, I usually keep crazy winter predictions lower in La Nina winters. And how crazy Oklahoma weather can be.

It could. One way being a drastically under-forecasted bad Pacific, which hasn't shown up yet. The fluctuations are due to the models nudging the cold slightly in this direction or that direction with drastic outcomes. In early 2017 we got down to the low teens with a much weaker pattern and even less cold air mass. It wouldn't take much for this to deliver.

I remember that cold blast, down to 1°F in town, -3°F in OKC.

Yes, it could change, I'm keeping the odds under 100% until I know for sure that it's going to be here for sure, especially how unpredictable Oklahoma weather is.

[Quixotic]

Snow cover won't be a problem for the cold to ooze right in. Not going to lie, as a weather geek this draconic -AO plummet is one for study that will manifest the NAO/PNA. Not since 2010 can we even buy a -2SD AO sustained and west based for a week! Only handful of times in your life will you witness such a feature -AO, that is not isolated this was building from December. Defying all forecast and each time going more and more negative. Anthony Masiello (one of the smartest brains imo) mention of the SSW-> lag result on this case situation was almost perfect.

Dr. Cohen's brief take.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1357008033512116234

Of course the SSW is looking like it’s going to dump on this side for once. After all, this is the first time I went on a rant about it never working out in our hemisphere

[Ntxw]

Arctic front comes through 0z GFS and ICON Monday night. ICON has an ice storm brewing late in the run.

You can definitely see the shallow nature of cold air in the first spoke.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4, yes I know, is showing "Arctic Air" graphic for Monday with highs in the lower 40's Tuesday and Wednesday.

Taking it very conservative I guess?

[Ntxw]

Fox 4, yes I know, is showing "Arctic Air" graphic for Monday with highs in the lower 40's Tuesday and Wednesday.

Taking it very conservative I guess?

So far the OP guidance take us down below freezing by Monday night and stay close or below for the days you mentioned above. And that's the outer perimeter of the cold air mass.