Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4, yes I know, is showing "Arctic Air" graphic for Monday with highs in the lower 40's Tuesday and Wednesday.

Taking it very conservative I guess?

So far the OP guidance take us down below freezing by Monday night and stay close or below. And that's the outer perimeter of the cold air mass.

Oddly enough the graphic he showed has us in the Arctic Airmass, almost along three lines of the percent of below temp graphic someone posted a page or two back. I'm expecting some heavy adjustments.

[Texas Snow]

0z going all in on frigid cold next weekend (16* Sat, 8* Sun, and 12* Monday mornings at DFW) and I’m all in. I just know that when I wake up I’ll see the Euro said 70.

[Brent]

0z going all in on frigid cold next weekend (16* Sat, 8* Sun, and 12* Monday mornings at DFW) and I’m all in. I just know that when I wake up I’ll see the Euro said 70.

Way too dry for me lol

[Texas Snow]

Oh for sure it’s dry as expected when that cold here. But 1) this forecast would likely moderate some and 2) the longer the cold sticks around at some point a shortwave has to come by to squeeze out something. We usually don’t stay cold enough to find out but it has happened.

[InfernoFlameCat]

New models are not quite as vigorous with the cold but most of Texas does still go well below freezing.

[Iceresistance]

Got the forecast for KWTV-News 9 at 6:50 AM, still calling for highs in the 20s & lows in the single-digits.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I looked at the current storm over the US and essentially this is the one that will force the cold air to materialize over Canada as it forces the warm air up into the Arctic from the states. Check out the North American region in the GFS 06z run 2m temperature anomaly to get my meaning. Point is that this is much more of a lock in than I first anticipated.

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS 1062 MB High near the US/Canada border!



Snow in Oklahoma & winter mix in NE Texas next week



24-hour Snowfall


Nasty cold for several days to come

[bubba hotep]

Slight 12hr temp moderation by the Canadian from 12z yesterday to 00z for Valentine's weekend lol

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS-Para is similar to the 0z GFS except that there is more snow in Texas. (Especially the SW part)

Note: The final amount of snow is uncertain because the model for total snowfall only goes out to 240 hours. And there is going to be no animation from this model run.

[txtwister78]

That's pretty darn cold folks for a 5 day window on an ensemble output for next week. The trend btw has been colder with each each run. That's why I prefer using this method overall in terms of measuring the "validity" of what the general operational models are showing. The 06z GFS ENS members continue to be bullish on the chances for frozen precip (mostly sleet/freezing rain) Thursday into Friday (perhaps some light frozen precip as early as Wednesday).

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS similar to 0z run except that the 2nd wave of snow suddenly disappears

[Iceresistance]

Most of the GEFS Esembles have winter weather in Texas at Hour 186.



And some for a 2nd round of winter weather at Hour 270.

[bubba hotep]

That's pretty darn cold folks for a 5 day window on an ensemble output for next week. The trend btw has been colder with each each run. That's why I prefer using this method overall in terms of measuring the "validity" of what the general operational models are showing. The 06z GFS ENS members continue to be bullish on the chances for frozen precip (mostly sleet/freezing rain) Thursday into Friday (perhaps some light frozen precip as early as Wednesday).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612418400/1613347200-yQfciPSA5uA.png

Interesting ensemble battle setting up with the GEFS being much more aggressive with winter wx prospects across TX over the next 10 days than the EPS.

[wxman57]

Models do seem to be backing off on the extreme cold next weekend. Still a lot of differences in the models. Won't be more confident until maybe next Tue-Wed. By the way, I have a beef with that groundhog. It was clearly overcast and snowing when he came out of his hole on Tuesday. How did he see his shadow? The whole thing is rigged!

If the cold air does get in place by next Fri/Sat, then the pattern in the Euro would be a quite favorable one for snow across TX.

[Iceresistance]

I have a question:

Where do I find a site that covers all the Ensemble member model runs for the GEFS, GEPS & EPS?

Can't do WeatherBell, must be a subscribed member there to access all of the models there.

Tropical Tidbits only has One.

EDIT: Forgot to say that TT has one member run for all 3 versions

[Iceresistance]

Models do seem to be backing off on the extreme cold next weekend. Still a lot of differences in the models. Won't be more confident until maybe next Tue-Wed. By the way, I have a beef with that groundhog. It was clearly overcast and snowing when he came out of his hole on Tuesday. How did he see his shadow? The whole thing is rigged!

If the cold air does get in place by next Fri/Sat, then the pattern in the Euro would be a quite favorable one for snow across TX.

I don't know how he did see his shadow either, maybe less clouds for a brief moment?

[txtwister78]

That's pretty darn cold folks for a 5 day window on an ensemble output for next week. The trend btw has been colder with each each run. That's why I prefer using this method overall in terms of measuring the "validity" of what the general operational models are showing. The 06z GFS ENS members continue to be bullish on the chances for frozen precip (mostly sleet/freezing rain) Thursday into Friday (perhaps some light frozen precip as early as Wednesday).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612418400/1613347200-yQfciPSA5uA.png

Interesting ensemble battle setting up with the GEFS being much more aggressive with winter wx prospects across TX over the next 10 days than the EPS.

Yeah it is, but the Euro ENS tend to have a warmer bias. I know the GFS has a tendency to advertise colder in the long run and then adjust as you get closer to the window in question. The GEFS however does pretty well within 5 days. Not sure what the skill score has been between the 2 overall this winter but the Euro definitely has had some big misses (corrections) in the intermediate/longer term outputs. King Euro may still reign supreme, but it definitely has had its "moments" this winter.

[orangeblood]

That's pretty darn cold folks for a 5 day window on an ensemble output for next week. The trend btw has been colder with each each run. That's why I prefer using this method overall in terms of measuring the "validity" of what the general operational models are showing. The 06z GFS ENS members continue to be bullish on the chances for frozen precip (mostly sleet/freezing rain) Thursday into Friday (perhaps some light frozen precip as early as Wednesday).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612418400/1613347200-yQfciPSA5uA.png

Interesting ensemble battle setting up with the GEFS being much more aggressive with winter wx prospects across TX over the next 10 days than the EPS.

All ensembles continue to trend colder though and the extreme is still on the table...check out some of these members for next weekend! Almost 50% of the members showing 15 F or less at DFW

[Iceresistance]

That's pretty darn cold folks for a 5 day window on an ensemble output for next week. The trend btw has been colder with each each run. That's why I prefer using this method overall in terms of measuring the "validity" of what the general operational models are showing. The 06z GFS ENS members continue to be bullish on the chances for frozen precip (mostly sleet/freezing rain) Thursday into Friday (perhaps some light frozen precip as early as Wednesday).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612418400/1613347200-yQfciPSA5uA.png

Interesting ensemble battle setting up with the GEFS being much more aggressive with winter wx prospects across TX over the next 10 days than the EPS.

Yeah it is, but the Euro ENS tend to have a warmer bias. I know the GFS has a tendency to advertise colder in the long run and then adjust as you get closer to the window in question. The GEFS however does pretty well within 5 days. Not sure what the skill score has been between the 2 overall this winter but the Euro definitely has had some big misses (corrections) in the intermediate/longer term outputs. King Euro may still reign supreme, but it has had some issues.

Speaking of GEFS Ensembles, how is the CMCE & EPS looking so far?