Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

I have a question:

Where do I find a site that covers all the Ensemble member model runs for the GEFS, GEPS & EPS?

Can't do WeatherBell, must be a subscribed member there to access all of the models there.

Tropical Tidbits only has One.

TT has all 3 ensemble versions. Other free sites include Pivotal Weather, College of DuPagel, PSU eWall. Individual ensemble members are available at COD & eWall. Individual members are fun to look at but don't offer much real world value unless you have the ability to do cluster analysis or some other deeper data analysis.

[HockeyTx82]

Models do seem to be backing off on the extreme cold next weekend. Still a lot of differences in the models. Won't be more confident until maybe next Tue-Wed. By the way, I have a beef with that groundhog. It was clearly overcast and snowing when he came out of his hole on Tuesday. How did he see his shadow? The whole thing is rigged!

If the cold air does get in place by next Fri/Sat, then the pattern in the Euro would be a quite favorable one for snow across TX.

I don't know how he did see his shadow either, maybe less clouds for a brief moment?

Lights from the news cameras and photographer camera flashes

[Iceresistance]

I have a question:

Where do I find a site that covers all the Ensemble member model runs for the GEFS, GEPS & EPS?

Can't do WeatherBell, must be a subscribed member there to access all of the models there.

Tropical Tidbits only has One.

TT has all 3 ensemble versions. Other free sites include Pivotal Weather, College of DuPagel, PSU eWall. Individual ensemble members are available at COD & eWall. Individual members are fun to look at but don't offer much real world value unless you have the ability to do cluster analysis or some other deeper data analysis.

Thanks.

(I forgot to say that TT has one ensemble run on all three versions. )

[Iceresistance]

Models do seem to be backing off on the extreme cold next weekend. Still a lot of differences in the models. Won't be more confident until maybe next Tue-Wed. By the way, I have a beef with that groundhog. It was clearly overcast and snowing when he came out of his hole on Tuesday. How did he see his shadow? The whole thing is rigged!

If the cold air does get in place by next Fri/Sat, then the pattern in the Euro would be a quite favorable one for snow across TX.

I don't know how he did see his shadow either, maybe less clouds for a brief moment?

Lights from the news cameras and photographer camera flashes

Likely confusion to think that he saw his shadow, it is kinda rigged for this year, even though that he did not see his shadow a few years ago.

[txtwister78]

The Euro ENS is slightly colder in the 0z compared to its run at 12z yesterday in the longer term (Thursday-Tuesday timeframe). The GEFS is colder overall and brings in the arctic air a little faster than the EPS. The CMC ENS aligns more with the GEFS as it relates to arrival and the strength of the arctic airmass (it also has trended colder).

[Iceresistance]

The Euro ENS is slightly colder in the 0z compared to its run at 12z yesterday in the longer term (Thursday-Tuesday timeframe). The GEFS is colder overall and brings in the arctic air a little faster than the EPS. The CMC ENS aligns more with the GEFS as it relates to arrival and the strength of the arctic airmass (it also has trended colder).

Jeez! Most of the time, the Ensembles would be split on the Arctic Invasion, but not this time


What about the moisture? (ENS & CMCE)

[Ntxw]

The Euro ENS is slightly colder in the 0z compared to its run at 12z yesterday in the longer term (Thursday-Tuesday timeframe). The GEFS is colder overall and brings in the arctic air a little faster than the EPS. The CMC ENS aligns more with the GEFS as it relates to arrival and the strength of the arctic airmass (it also has trended colder).

Good analysis here. General trends from the ensembles can tell you what to expect in the coming model suite (in this case 12z) which is cold coming in faster and overall trend colder.

Nothing has really changed from the past few days. Slight timing differences, Arctic air on the way, higher risk of some ice situation (maybe some snow once cold has settled). It is just different degree of variance.

[txtwister78]

The Euro ENS is slightly colder in the 0z compared to its run at 12z yesterday in the longer term (Thursday-Tuesday timeframe). The GEFS is colder overall and brings in the arctic air a little faster than the EPS. The CMC ENS aligns more with the GEFS as it relates to arrival and the strength of the arctic airmass (it also has trended colder).

Jeez! Most of the time, the Ensembles would be split on the Arctic Invasion, but not this time


What about the moisture? (ENS & CMCE)

Greatest precip chances right now overall appear to be the closer you get to the coast. Depending on the strength of the arctic airmass, dry air could limit precip chances the further north you go. Too early though to form any conclusions on precip/amounts. Once the cold is in place, watch your dewpoints (first indicator).

[Iceresistance]

The Euro ENS is slightly colder in the 0z compared to its run at 12z yesterday in the longer term (Thursday-Tuesday timeframe). The GEFS is colder overall and brings in the arctic air a little faster than the EPS. The CMC ENS aligns more with the GEFS as it relates to arrival and the strength of the arctic airmass (it also has trended colder).

Jeez! Most of the time, the Ensembles would be split on the Arctic Invasion, but not this time


What about the moisture? (ENS & CMCE)

Greatest precip chances right now overall appear to be the closer you get to the coast. Depending on the strength of the arctic airmass, dry air could limit precip chances the further north you go. Too early though to form any conclusions on precip/amounts. Once the cold is in place, watch your dewpoints (first indicator).

Agree on not calling any precip. out yet until it's 1-2 days out.

I'm going to watch the Dewpoints in Oklahoma from NWS-Norman

[txtwister78]

Jeez! Most of the time, the Ensembles would be split on the Arctic Invasion, but not this time


What about the moisture? (ENS & CMCE)

Greatest precip chances right now overall appear to be the closer you get to the coast. Depending on the strength of the arctic airmass, dry air could limit precip chances the further north you go. Too early though to form any conclusions on precip/amounts. Once the cold is in place, watch your dewpoints (first indicator).

Agree on not calling any precip. out yet until it's 1-2 days out.

I'm going to watch the Dewpoints in Oklahoma from NWS-Norman

As mentioned prior, I think ice (sleet or freezing rain) would be the most likely scenario overall with this kind of setup should it materialize. As we all know, it doesn't take much moisture to cause problems when dealing with that form of wintery precip.

[Ntxw]

There is some -45C to -50C in Northwest Canada. That's -50Fs and -60Fs (with an even larger area of -20s and -30s) across the Great White North. Air originated if you track back from Siberia. It's real deal cold and with strong 1060 HP+ coming down from the Arctic (not the pressure we're talking about coming into the US from S Canada) it will only get colder up there. By Saturday we should see -40s and -50s in west central Canada with a larger footprint.

[Iceresistance]

2.4.2021 UPDATE

Confidance level for the Feb. 2021 Polar Vortex: 80%

Factors:

All models in agreement for the Arctic Outbreak to spill into the Eastern 2/3 of the US.
The models are also generally trending colder as it gets closer(Even though that the GFS, GFS-Para & CMC models have trended a little warmer)
The Arctic outbreak is still 3-5 days away, with odds still increasing

Confidance level for a winter storm across the Plains from 2.11.2021 to 2.13.2021: 50%

Factors:

Most Models are still in agreement for the winter storm on the 2nd weekend into the 3rd week of February
The models are also trending towards a very strong area of High Pressure (1050 MB to 1062 MB) coming into the Northern Plains/Northern Rockies around the same time.
The potental winter storm is 7-9 days out, this will change as the system gets closer

[Iceresistance]

Greatest precip chances right now overall appear to be the closer you get to the coast. Depending on the strength of the arctic airmass, dry air could limit precip chances the further north you go. Too early though to form any conclusions on precip/amounts. Once the cold is in place, watch your dewpoints (first indicator).

Agree on not calling any precip. out yet until it's 1-2 days out.

I'm going to watch the Dewpoints in Oklahoma from NWS-Norman

As mentioned prior, I think ice (sleet or freezing rain) would be the most likely scenario overall with this kind of setup should it materialize. As we all know, it doesn't take much moisture to cause problems when dealing with that form of wintery precip.

Yes, it does not take much Ice & sleet to cause a nightmare trying to get home from the city when you have a LOT of bridges to cross.

[InfernoFlameCat]

2.4.2021 UPDATE

Confidance level for the Feb. 2021 Polar Vortex: 80%

Factors:

All models in agreement for the Arctic Outbreak to spill into the Eastern 2/3 of the US.
The models are also generally trending colder as it gets closer(Even though that the GFS, GFS-Para & CMC models have trended a little warmer)
The Arctic outbreak is still 3-5 days away, with odds still increasing

Confidance level for a winter storm across the Plains from 2.11.2021 to 2.13.2021: 50%

Factors:

Most Models are still in agreement for the winter storm on the 2nd weekend into the 3rd week of February
The models are also trending towards a very strong area of High Pressure (1050 MB to 1062 MB) coming into the Northern Plains/Northern Rockies around the same time.
The potental winter storm is 7-9 days out, this will change as the system gets closer

Yeah, this is practically a lock in.

[Iceresistance]

2.4.2021 UPDATE

Confidance level for the Feb. 2021 Polar Vortex: 80%

Factors:

All models in agreement for the Arctic Outbreak to spill into the Eastern 2/3 of the US.
The models are also generally trending colder as it gets closer(Even though that the GFS, GFS-Para & CMC models have trended a little warmer)
The Arctic outbreak is still 3-5 days away, with odds still increasing

Confidance level for a winter storm across the Plains from 2.11.2021 to 2.13.2021: 50%

Factors:

Most Models are still in agreement for the winter storm on the 2nd weekend into the 3rd week of February
The models are also trending towards a very strong area of High Pressure (1050 MB to 1062 MB) coming into the Northern Plains/Northern Rockies around the same time.
The potental winter storm is 7-9 days out, this will change as the system gets closer

Yeah, this is practically a lock in.

Not yet, there is a chance that it gets diverted to the East . . .

[Portastorm]

Greatest precip chances right now overall appear to be the closer you get to the coast. Depending on the strength of the arctic airmass, dry air could limit precip chances the further north you go. Too early though to form any conclusions on precip/amounts. Once the cold is in place, watch your dewpoints (first indicator).

Agree on not calling any precip. out yet until it's 1-2 days out.

I'm going to watch the Dewpoints in Oklahoma from NWS-Norman

As mentioned prior, I think ice (sleet or freezing rain) would be the most likely scenario overall with this kind of setup should it materialize. As we all know, it doesn't take much moisture to cause problems when dealing with that form of wintery precip.

The pattern this winter, at least for south central Texas, has been warm air advection overrunning. These fronts stall out in the Gulf, lift back north some, and return flow above the frontal boundary creates the overrunning. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if we end up here with some kind of freezing drizzle/sleet type event later next week.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If it gets shifted East, the vortex would need be overpowered by weak fronts moving through. I cannot visualize anything that might shift a 1050+ high far enough East to render its effects null. That is why it is forecast to move south with such a high probability of occurring this far out.

[Iceresistance]

0z CFS is calling for 2 winter storms within a 7-day span, first one looking like a major winter storm.

[rwfromkansas]

Gary Lezak up in KC has his recurring cycle idea, so I follow him some. He said for KC storms this year, the GFS has done better than the Euro. Will have to see how that compares to down here in TX. Haven't really had time to compare them much.

On a side note, I am on Amazon looking for heated gloves. My crappy gloves don't provide any warmth...

[Iceresistance]

The 12z models have started, will they be aggressive like they were 24 hours before?