Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Haris]

That is what this forum is!

Most of yes but there a certain member that is from Houston that dislikes the Cold but likes the snow

Meanwhile next Thursday afternoon on the 12zICON
https://i.imgur.com/EEzmeJy.png

The next model to REALLY watch for is the NAM model, it has the highest accuracy for general weather . . .

Not really on precipitation at all. Temps yes!

[Ntxw]

Most of yes but there a certain member that is from Houston that dislikes the Cold but likes the snow

Meanwhile next Thursday afternoon on the 12zICON
https://i.imgur.com/EEzmeJy.png

The next model to REALLY watch for is the NAM model, it has the highest accuracy for general weather . . .

Not really on precipitation at all. Temps yes!

NAM's wheelbarrow is 48 hours and under. We have to treat beyond that like long term GFS.

[Ntxw]

Euro is going to be a big winter storm if you just take 500mb verbatim. With the shortwave to the southwest and cold air pressing.

[Quixotic]

Don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but should the cold air deliver, keep an eye on the soundings regarding potential winter weather as shallow arctic air tends to bring back our old buddy the warm nose. A casual glance at the 12z GFS for DFW showed that nose with precipitation about.

This is why we've mentioned, at least initially, the risk of ice is higher than normal. Sleet and freezing rain/drizzle may be the dominate precip type in the beginning should there be moisture.

Ahh. Must've missed that portion of the discussion. Thanks!

[Haris]

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Gn21z6F/ecmwf-deterministic-scentus-instant-ptype-3088000.png[/url]

Also want to mention a 1057 MB High over Montana at +198 hours

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro has not much moisture from the across the Southern Pains except Southern Texas because of a High Pressure system that drifted too far south, but it's colder when there is no clouds to keep the heat in . . .

[Haris]

12z Euro has not much moisture from the across the Southern Pains except Southern Texas because of a High Pressure system that drifted too far south, but it's colder when there is no clouds to keep the heat in . . .

Most of Texas gets something on that run. 1-2" of snow for Dallas with a 1/4" - 1/2" of ice across Houston, Austin, and Southern NTX.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro with a big change out West vs 00z. 12z with ridge into the EPO region with a big positive tilted trough underneath vs the West Ridge up into Western Canada on 00z.

[Stormcenter]

Can someone please post the precipitation graphics
from the latest EURO run?

[Iceresistance]

Can someone please post the precipitation graphics
from the latest EURO run?

As requested

Snow totals

[Stormcenter]

Thank you!


quote="Iceresistance"]

Can someone please post the precipitation graphics
from the latest EURO run?

As requested

Snow totals
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us_sc63e95dcb1fd4ec08.png[/quote]

[txtwister78]

The CMC ENS trended a bit colder next week compared to the 0z run. Euro ENS also coming in colder than its 0z run for next week.

[HockeyTx82]

12z Euro with a big change out West vs 00z. 12z with ridge into the EPO region with a big positive tilted trough underneath vs the West Ridge up into Western Canada on 00z.

Sorry, what does this mean for Texas?

[Haris]

Euro ens colder

[wxman57]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Gn21z6F/ecmwf-deterministic-scentus-instant-ptype-3088000.png [/url]

Where are you getting this graphic, Haris? I don't see precip type on Pivotal Weather. Maue? WxBell?

[Haris]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Gn21z6F/ecmwf-deterministic-scentus-instant-ptype-3088000.png [/url]

Where are you getting this graphic, Haris? I don't see precip type on Pivotal Weather. Maue? WxBell?

WxBell

[wxman22]

12z EURO has a pretty significant ice storm next Thursday/Friday across central and southeast Texas and east into the deep south.

[Cerlin]

One thing to note about these massive arctic air masses is that they usually favor dry air, especially in la niña years. However, our combination of -AO, neutral PNA, MJO transitions, NAO...etc...result in the presence of more moisture for our region (at least, that’s what I’m lead to believe—I’m not an expert so forgive me if I’m wrong), which means IMO that models won’t likely have a good handle on precipitation (hence why ensembles are heavily favored here). Especially for the first half of the system, watch out for warm noses as the sharp gradient front comes in—this could favor a widespread ice storm a la February 2011 if conditions are right. This could also be a big win for Central/Southern Texas again—it can be difficult to overcome dry air with sub 20° temperatures, which when coupled with gulf moisture might result in higher QPF availability in the South.

Of course I could be completely wrong, but at least from my experience, this is what my take is on the situation the models are grappling with.

[txtwister78]

Euro Control went crazy cold Thursday and Friday. In my opinion I wouldn't get to hung up on timing just yet because with that much cold on the playing field chances are it arrives faster (at least the front) into the state than models indicate. I think the window could be as early as Tuesday and as late as Thursday. I would bet more on the earlier scenario right now.