Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

I don't see precip type on Pivotal Weather.

How do you not see it?

Where to find it on Pivotal Weather:

Surface & Precipitation Precipitation Type, Rate

[Cerlin]

Almost all ensemble members show snow for TX in some capacity over the next 14 days. Extremely strong signals.

EDIT: Personally hoping for member 26

[ronyan]

I'll have to go for panel 28 there.

[txtwister78]

Haris eluded to this in a earlier post, but this is a different grpahic. How can you not like that trend if you're wanting colder weather next week with precip around (0z to 12z)

[orangeblood]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1612440000/1613563200-w28PtNtIy2k.png https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1612440000/1613563200-ZoUSodKEP5s.png
Almost all ensemble members show snow for TX in some capacity over the next 14 days. Extremely strong signals.

EDIT: Personally hoping for member 26

Think it's worth noting...the ENS snow graphics doesn't pick up sleet/freezing rain, the spotty nature of the snow output typically tips you off to it but it's not in the accumulated modeling. This looks to be a big threat for sleet/freezing with snow on the northern edge. Very different from last months quick transition snow to rain event within a few miles....if the moisture is there this one could have 100 plus miles of transition zones

[Cerlin]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1612440000/1613563200-w28PtNtIy2k.png https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1612440000/1613563200-ZoUSodKEP5s.png
Almost all ensemble members show snow for TX in some capacity over the next 14 days. Extremely strong signals.

EDIT: Personally hoping for member 26

Think it's worth noting...the ENS snow graphics doesn't pick up sleet/freezing rain, the spotty nature of the snow output typically tips you off to it but it's not in the accumulated modeling. This looks to be a big threat for sleet/freezing with snow on the northern edge. Very different from last months quick transition snow to rain event within a few miles....if the moisture is there this one could have 100 plus miles of transition zones

Exactly, which makes the signal even stronger.

For instance, the 12z Euro operational snow map shows light snow around most of Texas and Oklahoma.



However, if we see the total freezing rain accumulation map, it shows a lot of precipitation where there are holes in the snow map.



Applying this logic to the Ensemble members, it can be assumed that most runs have some level of freezing rain as well, making this whole thing a wintry mess.

[orangeblood]

Stairway to Hell ???

[Iceresistance]

Stairway to Hell ???

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf/1612440000/1612440000-6fMZtT8bhwM.png

Nooo, it's the stairway to the Arctic!

[TropicalTundra]

Stairway to Hell ???

20 degrees for a high is an eye opener.

[orangeblood]

In addition to Temp trends, another good signal for moisture from the latest ENS run...most of the moisture Thursday/Friday is with temps in low 30's/upper 20's

[HockeyTx82]

2011 comes to mind...... is this similar?

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro with a big change out West vs 00z. 12z with ridge into the EPO region with a big positive tilted trough underneath vs the West Ridge up into Western Canada on 00z.

Sorry, what does this mean for Texas?

Can't get really deep cold air down into Texas with a WC ridge like that because of the flow across NA.



The 12z run today has the ridge oriented in such a way that the flow forces deep cold down the Rockies and into Mexico. This is a major cold outbreak signature.

[txtwister78]

EWX (AUS/SAT NWS) drops first hint of upcoming pattern change in the AFD...obviously taking the more conservative approach regarding precip.

Tuesday afternoon or evening a stronger arctic cold front will drop through the region bringing much colder air for Wednesday and Thursday. This front will stall over the
Gulf and northern Mexico. Isentropic flow over this boundary will bring slight and low end chance POPs for Wednesday and Thursday. With the cold air arriving before any precipitation,
there is a chance for some wintry precipitation, but for now it looks like all rain.

Edit added SJT(San Angelo NWS)

Looking farther ahead, the models still differ on the details, but it looks like much colder conditions for our area in the middle and late parts of next week with a reinforcement of much colder air.
Carrying low PoPs for the possibility of light rain or freezing rain in mainly our southern and southeastern counties Wednesday-Thursday. This would be for the possibility of a weak incoming disturbance
aloft and an overrunning setup.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro with a big change out West vs 00z. 12z with ridge into the EPO region with a big positive tilted trough underneath vs the West Ridge up into Western Canada on 00z.

Sorry, what does this mean for Texas?

Can't get really deep cold air down into Texas with a WC ridge like that because of the flow across NA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021020312/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

The 12z run today has the ridge oriented in such a way that the flow forces deep cold down the Rockies and into Mexico. This is a major cold outbreak signature.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021020412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

It should also be noted that the bottom image is a more anomalous outcome, as a whole, than the top image. It can and does happen but I would still be reluctant to bet on it even with it being -24hrs and having ensemble support. Beyond 7 days is an eternity away in model land (including ensembles).

[HockeyTx82]

Sorry, what does this mean for Texas?

Can't get really deep cold air down into Texas with a WC ridge like that because of the flow across NA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021020312/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

The 12z run today has the ridge oriented in such a way that the flow forces deep cold down the Rockies and into Mexico. This is a major cold outbreak signature.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021020412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

It should also be noted that the bottom image is a more anomalous outcome, as a whole, than the top image. It can and does happen but I would still be reluctant to bet on it even with it being -24hrs and having ensemble support. Beyond 7 days is an eternity away in model land (including ensembles).

Well, I was going to hold you to it, bit since you posted this guess I won't.

[Quixotic]

Stairway to Hell ???

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf/1612440000/1612440000-6fMZtT8bhwM.png

Heaven for me.

[Iceresistance]

UPDATE after the 12z models runs, currently 2.4.2021

Confidence for 2021. February Polar Vortex: 90%

Factors:

Models still extremely consistant for an Arctic Outbreak Next week, even though there is increasing trend for possible snow in Oklahoma this weekend (On the next slide).
The Euro Ensembles & GFS Ensembles has trended colder, even though that the GFS & GFS-Para was slightly warmer & CMC was much warmer than the 0z run.
The Polar Vortex is 2-3 days away, there is still enough time for it to go eastward, but not much time is left.

Confidance for Snow this weekend in

NE Oklahoma: 55%
Central Oklahoma: 30%

Impact:

LOW in Central Oklahoma
ELEVATED in NE Oklahoma

Factors:

Increasing model trend for some snow in Oklahoma since Yesterday, especially in the Central part of the state.
Any acculmation is going to be on the lower side, even though some areas in the heavier snowbands may receive 1-2 inches, up to 1 inch elsewhere if the snow is going to happen.

Confidence for Potentally Major Southern Plains winter storm Next Weekend: 50%

Impacts: Uncertain

Factors:

Even though the GFS-Para called for a crazy winter storm in Southern Texas (And several GEFS Ensemble members)), the Euro & CMC model has trended dryer with a High Pressure system that drifted too far south.
The Dewpoints are critical for any potental winter storm to occur in the Southern Plains because the High Pressure must be close enough to force moisture to here but far enough to not prevent any precip from forming.
Confidence is slighly higher in the Southern Half of Texas because the dewpoints are higher & more likely for winter weather to form if that is the case.
The Winter storm is 5-8 days out, this will change as the models give us better clues on this potental winter storm

[Iceresistance]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1612440000/1613563200-w28PtNtIy2k.png https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1612440000/1613563200-ZoUSodKEP5s.png
Almost all ensemble members show snow for TX in some capacity over the next 14 days. Extremely strong signals.

EDIT: Personally hoping for member 26

My Personal hopes are Members 1, 13, 26, & 35.

[Iceresistance]

18z Model runs have started!

[Iceresistance]

18z QUICK UPDATE

Confidence level for Snow this Weekend in

NE Oklahoma: 90%
Central Oklahoma: 55%

Impact Level:
NE Oklahoma: Moderate/Elevated
Central & Eastern Oklahoma: Low/Minimal

Factors:

Several Models are consistant on some snow in NE Oklahoma & Parts of Central Oklahoma into Eastern Oklahoma.
Totals are up to 2-4 inches of snow in NE Oklahoma, up to 1 inch elsewhere.
Expected impacts are slick roads, bridges & low visibility in heavier bands.
Very dependent on where the rain mixes/changes over to snow in the Central & Eastern Part of Oklahoma.