Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2821 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:39 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Rgv20 wrote::uarrow: ICE AGE!?! :froze: :cold: :froze:

https://i.imgur.com/8lRnjEE.png


With all the posting extreme model runs are we truly looking at a potential for a once a few decades event next week?

What point do we buy in on such extremes?


Maybe inside 3 days if it holds up. I am still very skeptical given our track record

There's only been a few days in 130 years of the records DFW didn't make 20 degrees
Last edited by Brent on Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2822 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:40 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
Ntxw wrote:0z GFS parties like it's 1978.


If I remember ‘78 correctly (I was very young so I may be off a year either way) my neighbors 3 huge pine trees in Denton had the tips touching the ground with ice. After that storm there were 2 pine trees.


Than might have been Jan 79.

Feb '78 for DFW is remembered for blocking episode, not brutally cold but persistent cold snap that wave after wave of snow events passing through.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2823 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:43 pm

CMC is pretty cold too, I mean at some point we have to think some cold is coming? Low teens and single digits and freeze to the coast and deep south Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2824 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:43 pm

I don't ever recall the GFS/ICON/ECMWF/GFS Ensembles/ECMWF Ensembles forecasting this extreme low temperatures maybe I'm wrong. Funny thing is that the GFS notoriously has a bias for being to warm with Arctic Fronts... :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2825 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:47 pm

0zCMC Noon next Saturday.....The whole state of Texas below freezing :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2826 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:49 pm

Rgv20 wrote:0zCMC Noon next Saturday.....The whole state of Texas below freezing :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/c6T6AB4.png


Quite the set of runs tonight.

But we don't have to wait that long, for the northern tier of the state the Arctic front generally as consensus arrives this Monday night or Tuesday morning. That part hasn't wavered too much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2827 Postby Haris » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:54 pm

Image

Time to get excited ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2828 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:57 pm

GEFS coming in colder again (more bullish on frozen precip as a result). Siberian express.

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Last edited by txtwister78 on Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2829 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:00 am

txtwister78 wrote:GEFS coming in colder again (more bullish on frozen precip as a result).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom/1612483200/1613066400-EQOmT426BzM.png


We have a little bit of SW Flow aloft as a trend, which brings in Pacific moisture. And I think the models are latching on finally to the surface cold currently to the north.

That west based NAO and ridiculous -AO block is not letting the cold slide to its favored position in eastern Canada.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2830 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:03 am

Ntxw wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:GEFS coming in colder again (more bullish on frozen precip as a result).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom/1612483200/1613066400-EQOmT426BzM.png


We have a little bit of SW Flow aloft as a trend, which brings in Pacific moisture. And I think the models are latching on finally to the surface cold currently to the north.


Good point and with that second charge of arctic air it wouldn't surprise me under that scenario if we end as snow across a good portion of the state (assuming all the variables remain in place)
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2831 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:04 am

Ntxw wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:0zCMC Noon next Saturday.....The whole state of Texas below freezing :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/c6T6AB4.png


Quite the set of runs tonight.

But we don't have to wait that long, for the northern tier of the state the Arctic front generally as consensus arrives this Monday night or Tuesday morning. That part hasn't wavered too much.



True, would be interesting to see how the global models do with the short range temperature forecast in the panhandle and get idea if they have a handle of the Arctic air.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2832 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:09 am

Ukmet only goes out to 144 but there is plenty cold air at northern Texas' doorstep and it has the SW flow shortwave to the southwest. Which on any model almost always spells winter storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2833 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:24 am

Well, it sure appears to be looking like a big freeze is headed our way. Right around Valentine's Day is notorious for cold weather. On Valentine's Day 1895, there was a major winter storm that dumped around 30 inches of snow near the Texas Gulf coast. If it happened once, it can happen again. I didn't expect to have another Harvey-like storm and then just two years later, my area got hit by Imelda.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2834 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:29 am

—- AO absolutely dominating the NH weather pattern

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2835 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:32 am



I want to believe..... :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2836 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:42 am



Notice the strong warmth anomaly over eastern Siberia where most of the time it is the coldest region in NHEM. It has been drained to the other side.

I'm sure we've all heard of Oymyakon from this region. Average high in Feb is -32 and low is -50s. Balmy single digits below zero only forecast for them!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2837 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:45 am

CMC ENS colder/more winter precip as well from its previous run.

Image

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2838 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:33 am

Euro initially is not as intense with the cold air as the other crazy models, but the Arctic front still comes through about the same time early week. It has a pretty good shortwave to the southwest, so here again probably going towards winter storm in the coming frames.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2839 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:51 am

The euro tries but there's not a lot of precip

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Last edited by Brent on Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2840 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:53 am

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