Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

:uarrow: ICE AGE!?!

https://i.imgur.com/8lRnjEE.png

With all the posting extreme model runs are we truly looking at a potential for a once a few decades event next week?

What point do we buy in on such extremes?

Maybe inside 3 days if it holds up. I am still very skeptical given our track record

There's only been a few days in 130 years of the records DFW didn't make 20 degrees

[Ntxw]

0z GFS parties like it's 1978.

If I remember ‘78 correctly (I was very young so I may be off a year either way) my neighbors 3 huge pine trees in Denton had the tips touching the ground with ice. After that storm there were 2 pine trees.

Than might have been Jan 79.

Feb '78 for DFW is remembered for blocking episode, not brutally cold but persistent cold snap that wave after wave of snow events passing through.

[Ntxw]

CMC is pretty cold too, I mean at some point we have to think some cold is coming? Low teens and single digits and freeze to the coast and deep south Texas.

[Rgv20]

I don't ever recall the GFS/ICON/ECMWF/GFS Ensembles/ECMWF Ensembles forecasting this extreme low temperatures maybe I'm wrong. Funny thing is that the GFS notoriously has a bias for being to warm with Arctic Fronts...

[Rgv20]

0zCMC Noon next Saturday.....The whole state of Texas below freezing

[Ntxw]

0zCMC Noon next Saturday.....The whole state of Texas below freezing

https://i.imgur.com/c6T6AB4.png

Quite the set of runs tonight.

But we don't have to wait that long, for the northern tier of the state the Arctic front generally as consensus arrives this Monday night or Tuesday morning. That part hasn't wavered too much.

[Haris]

Time to get excited ?

[txtwister78]

GEFS coming in colder again (more bullish on frozen precip as a result). Siberian express.

[Ntxw]

GEFS coming in colder again (more bullish on frozen precip as a result).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom/1612483200/1613066400-EQOmT426BzM.png

We have a little bit of SW Flow aloft as a trend, which brings in Pacific moisture. And I think the models are latching on finally to the surface cold currently to the north.

That west based NAO and ridiculous -AO block is not letting the cold slide to its favored position in eastern Canada.

[txtwister78]

GEFS coming in colder again (more bullish on frozen precip as a result).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom/1612483200/1613066400-EQOmT426BzM.png

We have a little bit of SW Flow aloft as a trend, which brings in Pacific moisture. And I think the models are latching on finally to the surface cold currently to the north.

Good point and with that second charge of arctic air it wouldn't surprise me under that scenario if we end as snow across a good portion of the state (assuming all the variables remain in place)

[Rgv20]

0zCMC Noon next Saturday.....The whole state of Texas below freezing

https://i.imgur.com/c6T6AB4.png

Quite the set of runs tonight.

But we don't have to wait that long, for the northern tier of the state the Arctic front generally as consensus arrives this Monday night or Tuesday morning. That part hasn't wavered too much.

True, would be interesting to see how the global models do with the short range temperature forecast in the panhandle and get idea if they have a handle of the Arctic air.

[Ntxw]

Ukmet only goes out to 144 but there is plenty cold air at northern Texas' doorstep and it has the SW flow shortwave to the southwest. Which on any model almost always spells winter storm.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well, it sure appears to be looking like a big freeze is headed our way. Right around Valentine's Day is notorious for cold weather. On Valentine's Day 1895, there was a major winter storm that dumped around 30 inches of snow near the Texas Gulf coast. If it happened once, it can happen again. I didn't expect to have another Harvey-like storm and then just two years later, my area got hit by Imelda.

[orangeblood]

—- AO absolutely dominating the NH weather pattern

[HockeyTx82]

—- AO absolutely dominating the NH weather pattern

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612483200/1613282400-iIffdpAmiJk.png

I want to believe.....

[Ntxw]

—- AO absolutely dominating the NH weather pattern

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612483200/1613282400-iIffdpAmiJk.png

Notice the strong warmth anomaly over eastern Siberia where most of the time it is the coldest region in NHEM. It has been drained to the other side.

I'm sure we've all heard of Oymyakon from this region. Average high in Feb is -32 and low is -50s. Balmy single digits below zero only forecast for them!

[txtwister78]

CMC ENS colder/more winter precip as well from its previous run.

[Ntxw]

Euro initially is not as intense with the cold air as the other crazy models, but the Arctic front still comes through about the same time early week. It has a pretty good shortwave to the southwest, so here again probably going towards winter storm in the coming frames.

[Brent]

The euro tries but there's not a lot of precip

[txtwister78]