Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

The euro tries but there's not a lot of precip

https://i.ibb.co/VL9FzKk/sn10-acc-us-sc-4.png

That's actually a good signal (position). Would not shock me to see those values increase as we get closer should the cold supply continue into next weekend.

[Cerlin]

Honestly these runs are pretty surreal. It’s been pretty common to have an outlier cold run here and there—I can recall dozens of times over the past few winters where the crazy CMC or some long range 300+ HR GFS run shows some single digits as an outlier. This, however, is completely unique. Every model is showing intense and unwavering cold. Almost every model agrees, and not just on freezing temperatures, but on sub 20 temperatures. It’s insane and something I never thought I’d see. In addition, these models don’t just show one snow system to track—they show a whole week of fascinating events from snow to ice to record cold. I’m not sure what will verify or when things will happen, but just being able to watch the model runs and get excited about the next 7 days with every day being something interesting is a sight to behold.

[utweather]

Had a record high in Austin today. Perfect temp actually, because it wasnt humid.
Got to enjoy the outdoors!
Let's see if the yearly end of run ice age model verifies next week. I use to panic in the mid 90s when I would see how cold it was suppose to get, lol.

[gpsnowman]

Well finally the local outlooks are playing catchup with what the models have been showing. Temps have trended dowmward big time since yesterday. Still no highs below freezing but winter precip is now in the forecast. I expect the forecasted temps will continue to drop as this draws closer. It's coming.

[Iceresistance]

(Note: This is a big post)
Part 2 (and Final) of the final WinterWX odds on 2.4.2021

Confidence for the Polar Vortex on the 2nd week of February: 90%

Discussion:

All models are extremely consistant for the polar vortex to dive down into the Midwest by the 2nd week of February.
There was some models for the system to jog eastward towards the Great Lakes up to 18z, but now that possibility is now likely gone.
Temperatures will fall well below freezing & may stay that way for DAYS, including Texas & Oklahoma.
Wind Chills can fall down to -10°F in some areas depending on the wind.
Temperatures can fall down to near zero in Northern Oklahoma.
This polar vortex increases the chances for severe winter storms across the Southern Plains

Confidence for a Winter Storm in the Southern Plains Late Next Week: 60%

Impact levels:
(NOTE: All Severe impact zones are generally east of US-283)

North-Central Texas: Elevated
North Texas: Elevated/Enhanced/High
Along the Red River bordering Texas & Oklahoma: High/Moderate
South of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Moderate/Enhanced
North of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Enhanced/Elevated
Between I-35 & US-183 in Oklahoma: Elevated/Low
NW Oklahoma & NE Panhandle Texas: Low
SW Oklahoma: Minimal

My Discussion & Potental Totals:

Increasing confidence on Several Models for a winter storm in the Southern Plains Late Next week has allowed me to set up impact zones in Northern Texas & the Main portion of Oklahoma.
The Only model that has zero snow is the CMC model from 12z
Even though the Storm timeline is from Thrusday Night to Friday Evening.
Up to .1 inch of Ice is possible in North-Central Texas, up to 1/4 inch in Northern Texas
Considerable amount of Sleet is possible from Southern Oklahoma to Northern Texas, generally 2-3 inches with up to 4-5 inches of Sleet
Central Oklahoma & The Dallas Metroplex can have around .5 inch to 2 inches of sleet
Snow totals is 1-3 inches in Northern & NE Oklahoma, 3-5 inches on top of Sleet in Central Oklahoma (Parts of Eastern Oklahoma can get up to 6 inches depending on how fast the Sleet changes over to snow)
1-2 inches in NW Oklahoma
And a dusting of snow in Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas

Where are you getting this? What's the source?

I did this myself, being very careful with my forecasts, keep in mind that I'm the family forecaster right now & helping y'all out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

(Note: This is a big post)
Part 2 (and Final) of the final WinterWX odds on 2.4.2021

Confidence for the Polar Vortex on the 2nd week of February: 90%

Discussion:

All models are extremely consistant for the polar vortex to dive down into the Midwest by the 2nd week of February.
There was some models for the system to jog eastward towards the Great Lakes up to 18z, but now that possibility is now likely gone.
Temperatures will fall well below freezing & may stay that way for DAYS, including Texas & Oklahoma.
Wind Chills can fall down to -10°F in some areas depending on the wind.
Temperatures can fall down to near zero in Northern Oklahoma.
This polar vortex increases the chances for severe winter storms across the Southern Plains

Confidence for a Winter Storm in the Southern Plains Late Next Week: 60%

Impact levels:
(NOTE: All Severe impact zones are generally east of US-283)

North-Central Texas: Elevated
North Texas: Elevated/Enhanced/High
Along the Red River bordering Texas & Oklahoma: High/Moderate
South of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Moderate/Enhanced
North of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Enhanced/Elevated
Between I-35 & US-183 in Oklahoma: Elevated/Low
NW Oklahoma & NE Panhandle Texas: Low
SW Oklahoma: Minimal

My Discussion & Potental Totals:

Increasing confidence on Several Models for a winter storm in the Southern Plains Late Next week has allowed me to set up impact zones in Northern Texas & the Main portion of Oklahoma.
The Only model that has zero snow is the CMC model from 12z
Even though the Storm timeline is from Thrusday Night to Friday Evening.
Up to .1 inch of Ice is possible in North-Central Texas, up to 1/4 inch in Northern Texas
Considerable amount of Sleet is possible from Southern Oklahoma to Northern Texas, generally 2-3 inches with up to 4-5 inches of Sleet
Central Oklahoma & The Dallas Metroplex can have around .5 inch to 2 inches of sleet
Snow totals is 1-3 inches in Northern & NE Oklahoma, 3-5 inches on top of Sleet in Central Oklahoma (Parts of Eastern Oklahoma can get up to 6 inches depending on how fast the Sleet changes over to snow)
1-2 inches in NW Oklahoma
And a dusting of snow in Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas

Where are you getting this? What's the source?

I did this myself, being very careful with my forecasts, keep in mind that I'm the family forecaster right now & helping y'all out.

I was saying, this is a lock in.

[wxman57]

Clearly, my efforts to reinforce the US/Canada cold air wall have failed this year. My shoulder remains too sore. Careful what you wish for. I was a forecaster for the big Arctic fronts of 1983 and 1989. We had models that only went out to 72 hours back then. Houston was below freezing for 5 days. The high one day was 20 deg. I wasn't pretty. Many came home from Christmas travels with water running down the driveway as attic pipes burst while they were away. Water pressure was low as many water mains broke. In 1983, an inch of snow fell on the south shore of Clear Lake (lake-effect snow). Snow was reported on oil rigs out in the Gulf. This cold event does not appear to compare to those big freezes of the past, but it does have the potential to cause major problems across the south. Guess I'll head to Home Depot today to get more pipe insulation before the mad rush as people panic.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Clearly, my efforts to reinforce the US/Canada cold air wall have failed this year. My shoulder remains too sore. Careful what you wish for. I was a forecaster for the big Arctic fronts of 1983 and 1989. We had models that only went out to 72 hours back then. Houston was below freezing for 5 days. The high one day was 20 deg. I wasn't pretty. Many came home from Christmas travels with water running down the driveway as attic pipes burst while they were away. Water pressure was low as many water mains broke. In 1983, an inch of snow fell on the south shore of Clear Lake (lake-effect snow). Snow was reported on oil rigs out in the Gulf. This cold event does not appear to compare to those big freezes of the past, but it does have the potential to cause major problems across the south. Guess I'll head to Home Depot today to get more pipe insulation before the mad rush as people panic.

Well, you do like it hot. Also what is great and terrible about weather is that it doesn't listen to wishes although sometimes it might seem that way.

[Iceresistance]

Confidence level for Snow in This weekend in

NE Oklahoma: 80% (Not calling it anymore for now)
Central Oklahoma: 60%

All impacts are Low

My Discussion

Decreased model consistency for snow in NE & Central Oklahoma has lowered odds & impacts.
Up to 1 inch of snow is best depending where you are under snow bands or heavier pockets.
Snow timeline is from Saturday Evening to Early Sunday Morning.
Impacts are low with Slick Bridges possible.

[Iceresistance]

The euro tries but there's not a lot of precip

https://i.ibb.co/VL9FzKk/sn10-acc-us-sc-4.png

Most of it was squeezed out by several High Pressure areas

[wxman57]

I'm relieved. Channel 2 in Houston's long-range forecast for next weekend is lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 40s.

[orangeblood]

I think we can all agree that there's big changes in store next week...now, it's just a matter of magnitude and S/Ws embedded in the upper level flow. After looking over last night's Ensembles, the biggest threat to lessening the magnitude of the cold down here in the Southern Plains is how strong the PV gets along the Canadian border. The stronger the PV is there is potential that it wraps the coldest air up across the northern tier, not allowing as much of a southerly push. The weaker, the more this Arctic airmass could spread out particularly into the southern plains. You can tell from just looking at the run to run change on the GEFS 500mb and Temp chart b/w 0Z & 06Z runs

Deeper blue mean lower heights and in the case of the PV, stronger! Then you can tell from the temp change, coldest air stays closer to the PV. It's still extremely cold, this is more of a discussion on magnitude or as Ludacris would say "How low can you go? How low can you go?"

[Snowman67]

I'm relieved. Channel 2 in Houston's long-range forecast for next weekend is lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 40s.

I'm sure that's your go to for forecasts

[gboudx]

Snippet from Jeff Lindner's email today.

Mid-late Next Week:

Bitter cold air is building over northern Siberia into northern Alaska and as the upper level pattern amplifies along the US west coast over the next few days, this cold air will become dislodged and start to move southward. Current temperatures range from -40’s over northern Alaska to -50’s over Siberia. Global forecast models indicate that an arctic cold front will begin to surge down the plains early next week and reach TX in some form by the middle of the week. It is unclear if the bulk of the cold air moves straight down the plains into TX or is pushed more SE and TX sees a glancing blow. Either way, there is potential for a significant cold air outbreak, Models have also been showing the threat for precipitation to linger in the cold air mass behind the front and this will be something to keep a close watch on over the next few days.

[Iceresistance]

I think we can all agree that there's big changes in store next week...now, it's just a matter of magnitude and S/Ws embedded in the upper level flow. After looking over last night's Ensembles, the biggest threat to lessening the magnitude of the cold down here in the Southern Plains is how strong the PV gets along the Canadian border. The stronger the PV is there is potential that it wraps the coldest air up across the northern tier, not allowing as much of a southerly push. The weaker, the more this Arctic airmass could spread out particularly into the southern plains. You can tell from just looking at the run to run change on the GEFS 500mb and Temp chart b/w 0Z & 06Z runs

Deeper blue mean lower heights and in the case of the PV, stronger! Then you can tell from the temp change, coldest air stays closer to the PV. It's still extremely cold, this is more of a discussion on magnitude or as Ludacris would say "How low can you go? How low can you go?"

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gf ... pqscRU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gf ... D8Zz98.png

What if the Polar vortex decides to go as far south towards Missouri & get stronger there?

[WinterMax]

I'm relieved. Channel 2 in Houston's long-range forecast for next weekend is lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Yeah, I'm over here south of Alexandria La. I'm thinking mid 20s for lows, highs in the mid 40s, I can live with that.

[orangeblood]

A little off topic but has anyone been tracking the Arctic Sea Ice Extent this year? ...Ice continues to build up north and at a fairly high anomaly pace (compared to past 20 years). La Nina plus falling PDO influence ?

[wxman57]

I'm relieved. Channel 2 in Houston's long-range forecast for next weekend is lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 40s.

I'm sure that's your go to for forecasts

It is, until I find a warmer channel. Ch. 11 says 20s to 30s. Don't like them.

[orangeblood]

I think we can all agree that there's big changes in store next week...now, it's just a matter of magnitude and S/Ws embedded in the upper level flow. After looking over last night's Ensembles, the biggest threat to lessening the magnitude of the cold down here in the Southern Plains is how strong the PV gets along the Canadian border. The stronger the PV is there is potential that it wraps the coldest air up across the northern tier, not allowing as much of a southerly push. The weaker, the more this Arctic airmass could spread out particularly into the southern plains. You can tell from just looking at the run to run change on the GEFS 500mb and Temp chart b/w 0Z & 06Z runs

Deeper blue mean lower heights and in the case of the PV, stronger! Then you can tell from the temp change, coldest air stays closer to the PV. It's still extremely cold, this is more of a discussion on magnitude or as Ludacris would say "How low can you go? How low can you go?"

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gf ... pqscRU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gf ... D8Zz98.png

What if the Polar vortex decides to go as far south towards Missouri & get stronger there?

Well at this point, I don't believe that scenario is on the table

[Iceresistance]

Hardly see any Ensembles on the 6z GEFS model run that has no snow for Oklahoma. (Even though that Member #12 has a snow hole over Central Oklahoma)




(Wish best luck for me, I must take the Coronavirus test today, school policy has changed, which now requires a test to be there in-person.)