Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

I think we can all agree that there's big changes in store next week...now, it's just a matter of magnitude and S/Ws embedded in the upper level flow. After looking over last night's Ensembles, the biggest threat to lessening the magnitude of the cold down here in the Southern Plains is how strong the PV gets along the Canadian border. The stronger the PV is there is potential that it wraps the coldest air up across the northern tier, not allowing as much of a southerly push. The weaker, the more this Arctic airmass could spread out particularly into the southern plains. You can tell from just looking at the run to run change on the GEFS 500mb and Temp chart b/w 0Z & 06Z runs

Deeper blue mean lower heights and in the case of the PV, stronger! Then you can tell from the temp change, coldest air stays closer to the PV. It's still extremely cold, this is more of a discussion on magnitude or as Ludacris would say "How low can you go? How low can you go?"

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gf ... pqscRU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gf ... D8Zz98.png

What if the Polar vortex decides to go as far south towards Missouri & get stronger there?

Well at this point, I don't believe that scenario is on the table

Anything is possible right now, it has trended westward over the last few days.

[wxman57]

What if the Polar vortex decides to go as far south towards Missouri & get stronger there?

None of the models is indicating any such thing. It stays between the Great Lakes and James Bay.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I'm relieved. Channel 2 in Houston's long-range forecast for next weekend is lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Boo I want to see the great Wxman57 to be frozen next week.

[rwfromkansas]

Nevermind on the GEFS....I see that's run-to-run change.

Other questions...what can we do to protect our pipes? We have one of the subdivision homes from a few years ago....tons of good things like radiant barriers keeping out heat. But, not sure on the cold. I do have heated gloves coming today from Amazon.

[Ntxw]

Nevermind on the GEFS....I see that's run-to-run change.

Other questions...what can we do to protect our pipes? We have one of the subdivision homes from a few years ago....tons of good things like radiant barriers keeping out heat. But, not sure on the cold. I do have heated gloves coming today from Amazon.

Your home's ambient heat should do a pretty decent job. As long as there is activity in the home and you keep things warmish should be fine. Covering exposed pipes, letting water drip are things that can help (don't let them drip on outside exposed pipes). Even freezing temps for a week is unlikely to do that kind of damage unless the residence is empty or people leave with no ambient heat. The issue for 1983 and 1989 is that it was around Christmas as folks left their homes un-manned for holiday travel and came back to a lot of problems. It's unlikely we see that kind of cold anyway for that long (though it could to a lesser extent.)

Basic precautions should do a good job. Now it would be a different story if there was a major ice storm that knocked out power for many and then very cold temps kick in.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS showing highs in the 30's mid-end next week. And states in the AFD it would be irresponsible to deny potential of winter weather next week.

At this point, it would be irresponsible to deny the potential of
winter weather in the middle to late parts of next week and again
next weekend. It would also be equally irresponsible to advertise
any certainty as to what will happen this far out with so many
variables at play. We do have high confidence of much colder
temperatures remaining in place through next week and next
weekend. We also expect one or two shortwaves to move overtop of
the cold airmass, which will provide potential for winter weather
with each trough`s passage. The first shortwave is projected to
move through late next week. For now, most of us have just about
equal chances of receiving rain, sleet, and/or freezing rain.
Areas further northwest will have the best chance to receive
snow while areas further southeast will have the best chances of
not receiving any winter weather at all. Accumulation, impacts,
etc are still far too uncertain to even mention at this point.
Please continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days as
confidence is gained.

[Cpv17]

I'm relieved. Channel 2 in Houston's long-range forecast for next weekend is lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 40s.

I'm sure that's your go to for forecasts

It is, until I find a warmer channel. Ch. 11 says 20s to 30s. Don't like them.

Watch Dr. Jim’s forecast on FOX 26 if you want a warm forecast lol

[lrak]

CCTX LOCAL FORECAST

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Following a minor upper trough Saturday night and a weak cold front,
surface ridging will make quick headway into the Gulf by Sunday
afternoon underneath increasingly zonal flow and rising heights.
Moisture advection improves Sunday night in response to another
shortwave trough approaching well to our west, yet much of this
moisture appears too shallow for anything other than just stratus
development. Passage of this decaying upper impulse by Tuesday
should veer our low level flow more southwesterly and warm our highs
up to what should be the highest values of the week before
considerably colder air sets its sights on the region by mid/late
next week. Despite the 00Z GFS being slower than the ECMWF with this
strong front, will keep with our faster and colder theme given the
Arctic source region of this air mass and the historical tendency
for these front to arrive sooner than models suggest. High temps
from Wednesday through Friday remain colder than the NBM owing to
strong ensemble signals (GFS chiclets) for unseasonably cold air to
remain across the region during this time. Precip-wise, stronger SW
flow aloft by late week should open the door to favorable deep layer
ascent at times, although timing this is contingent on an upper
trough carving south across the Great Basin - a feature whose track
and timing are very ambiguous among models and ensembles. PoPs were
kept largely in the chance category for late week with most thermal
profiles favoring cold rain at this time, yet a window could open
for perhaps some wintry precip if dynamic cooling of the column
occurs atop the shallow cold dome near the surface.

"Perhaps" YAY!!!

[Portastorm]

What if the Polar vortex decides to go as far south towards Missouri & get stronger there?

None of the models is indicating any such thing. It stays between the Great Lakes and James Bay.

Exactly. You have a better chance of a spaceship landing in your backyard, aliens getting out and asking you what your favorite sandwich is ... than the polar vortex relocating in Missouri and getting stronger.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Just had a heavy sleet shower in Williamson county. Unless it was hail.

[G'TownGirl]

^ Heavy sleet this morning in rural Williamson County. Was NOT expecting that! Had to terminate my early morning walk.

[wxman22]

Maybe its an omen on what's to come next week...

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is a pretty cold run. Arctic front in a few days (same time frame, might be slightly faster). An icing event with temps in the 20s for parts of the north central and northeastern part of the state. Colder air comes in with snow later and 1057mb high on the US/Canadian border, highs late week barely in the low 20s.

ICON is not as wet but it is cold too.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS from an upper flow standpoint has even greater potential to be even colder (even though the surface may not reflect it). The cold is a lot deeper than the wild 0z run.

[orangeblood]

12z GFS is a pretty cold run. Arctic front in a few days (same time frame, might be slightly faster). An icing event with temps in the 20s for parts of the north central and northeastern part of the state. Colder air comes in with snow later and 1057mb high on the US/Canadian border, highs late week barely in the low 20s.

ICON is not as wet but it is cold too.

Still have Wild swings from the Globals, particularly with the strength of the Arctic HP (500 mb is somewhat consistent)...GFS just went from a 1038 HP to a 1057 HP crossing the Canadian border next Friday in back to back runs

[bubba hotep]

A lot of cold air in place with a s/w cutting off over SOCAL at 222hr

[orangeblood]

A lot of cold air in place with a s/w cutting off over SOCAL at 222hr

Yep, this is primed for front and back end winter storm events!!

[orangeblood]

For entertainment purposes only...12Z Crazy Canadian 1 week from now

[bubba hotep]

A lot of cold air in place with a s/w cutting off over SOCAL at 222hr

Yep, this is primed for front and back end winter storm events!!

GFS ends up stalling it in the Pacific but what could have been...

[HockeyTx82]

For entertainment purposes only...12Z Crazy Canadian 1 week from now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020512/gem_T2m_scus_29.png

Even with the usual modification that's still a cold run.