Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2901 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:33 pm

Lol the euro is 20 degrees warmer on Thursday DFW in the 50s Houston is pushing 80 :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2902 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:36 pm

I remembered once in February or March of 86 it was snowing and 50F in Dallas. Big old catpaws.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2903 Postby 3090 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:37 pm

Brent wrote:Lol the euro is 20 degrees warmer on Thursday DFW in the 50s Houston is pushing 80 :spam:

EURO must be warming up for its summer season.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2904 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:38 pm

Brent wrote:Lol the euro is 20 degrees warmer on Thursday DFW in the 50s Houston is pushing 80 :spam:


SE ridge more pronounced but everything else is shifted westward. Might actually be a colder dump?
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2905 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:41 pm

Given the euro’s tendency toward a lack of progression, it doesn’t surprise me it’s slower than the other models...but how are we talking about a timing difference of 3 days for the front, when we are looking only 6 days out?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2906 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:43 pm

I'll wait on the ensembles before I hit the eject button.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2907 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:44 pm

12z Euro, just wow...
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2908 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:46 pm

Quixotic wrote:I'll wait on the ensembles before I hit the eject button.


12z Euro has a TPV dropping into the Dakotas. This could be an insane cold shot down the Rockies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2909 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:52 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Quixotic wrote:I'll wait on the ensembles before I hit the eject button.


12z Euro has a TPV dropping into the Dakotas. This could be an insane cold shot down the Rockies.


It's nuts. We've got the CMC giving us ridiculous cold, the GFS gives us the cold shot but wants to shunt it off to the east and moderates the air mass too quickly (IMO), and now the Euro is delaying it but still has a freakishly big PV crouching in the Northern Plains. It should be within range for more agreement than this. I just don't see how that large of a dense, cold airmass can be held back once it starts to move south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2910 Postby Haris » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:52 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Quixotic wrote:I'll wait on the ensembles before I hit the eject button.


12z Euro has a TPV dropping into the Dakotas. This could be an insane cold shot down the Rockies.


It’s just hard getting remotely optimistic. This delay has been happening since weeks. Initially was supposed to be today then Tuesday now who knows.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2911 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:54 pm

Haris wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Quixotic wrote:I'll wait on the ensembles before I hit the eject button.


12z Euro has a TPV dropping into the Dakotas. This could be an insane cold shot down the Rockies.


It’s just hard getting remotely optimistic. This delay has been happening since weeks. Initially was supposed to be today then Tuesday now who knows.


Yeah that's my issue too first it was Sunday then Tuesday and now ??? I'm not saying it won't get cold but certainly the extreme stuff I am very skeptical
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2912 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:55 pm

Ah, and the delay starts for the second time. Lol. I think it will happen since I don't see how the cold can't drop south, but come on, models, get it together.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2913 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:00 pm

Damn 12zEURO has the Arctic Front very very delayed....Will be interesting to see the Ensembles later this afternoon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2914 Postby 3090 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:07 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Damn 12zEURO has the Arctic Front very very delayed....Will be interesting to see the Ensembles later this afternoon.

The cold air is too dense to lag that far behind the front. EURO is out to lunch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2915 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:15 pm

12z Canadian is NASTY COLD! :froze: :froze:

Image

MONSTROUS 1063 MB High over Western Canada :double:

Image

Big storms dropping a LOT of winter percip over the Southern Plains :cold: :ggreen:

Image

Snowfall from System #1

Image

(NOTE: The amount of snow from Storm #2 is too light to be included here.)

Storm #3

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2916 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:15 pm

3090 wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:Damn 12zEURO has the Arctic Front very very delayed....Will be interesting to see the Ensembles later this afternoon.

The cold air is too dense to lag that far behind the front. EURO is out to lunch.


Haha, so true! :lol:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2917 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:21 pm

Not sure I would call a dusting to an inch for most people a lot. But, it's better than nothing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2918 Postby dhweather » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:24 pm

Friendly reminder that model guidance beyond 7 days is usually wrong. If it's gonna be that cold, it BETTER snow! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2919 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:29 pm

While "warmer" than the 0z run initially, the Euro ENS are still much colder than the operational run.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2920 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:33 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Not sure I would call a dusting to an inch for most people a lot. But, it's better than nothing.

Not that it matters at this point, because the event is still too far away, but snow falling at that temp would probably amount to more than depicted. I would imagine precip in the low 20s would have ratios a good deal higher than 10:1
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