Texas Winter 2020-2021

[wxman57]

I added in my new favorite model, the ICON. What do Canadians know about cold? Euro says "No ice for you!" to Texas. GFS has an ice storm over DFW Thursday and maybe few flakes of snow following.

[Cerlin]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

That really is something else...

[Iceresistance]

KFOR 7+4, calling for a 40% of Heavy Snow Next Saturday

[wxman57]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

That really is something else...

"Normal" for north Houston (IAH) would be a low of 46 and a high of 66 by next weekend. A temperature of 25F below normal would mean lows in the low 20s and highs in the low 40s. Just to put the anomalies in perspective.

[PTrackerLA]

Where are you getting your ICON model data? The 12z Temps on tropical tidbits are almost as cold as the CMC.

[SnowintheFalls]

Steve McCauley does not seem too impressed.

"The first phase of our two-step Arctic Air Invasion has been put on temporary hold and no longer appears to hit with much strength by Sunday morning. The cold air is very shallow which makes it relatively easy to push it away from north Texas. So, although it will be turning colder, the "mother load" of the cold air will be delayed a few days. But our winds will not be able to keep it at bay forever, so it will still hit, it just won't be in multiple phases as originally expected.

I am in hopes that since it now appears to hit with one primary blast, that it won't defoliate my palms!!

Stay tuned for updates and enjoy the 60s today and 70s tomorrow."

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

A 500mb trough is progged to develop across the western U.S.
Wednesday as the cold front moves into south Texas and possibly
stalls across deep south Texas Wed afternoon. The rest of the
forecast period depends on the upper level trough across the
western U.S. deepening Thursday and move eastward Friday with a
McFarland signature pattern developing towards the end of the
forecast period. Surface low pressure is expected to develop
across northeast Mexico Wednesday and move across the Rio Grande
Valley Thursday. This will provide a focus for elevated convection
across the CWA Wednesday and rain chances are progged to increase
Wed night into Thursday as another cold front moves into south
Texas Thursday and deep south Texas Thurs night. This will
provide cooler temperatures Wednesday into Thursday with the
potential for freezing temperatures and possibly mixed
precipitation (liquid/frozen) across portions of the northern
counties of deep south Texas early Fri morning as an Arctic
airmass is currently progged to move into the central tier of the
country on Friday. Temperatures are currently expected to remain
above freezing during the day on Friday.

[Cerlin]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

That really is something else...

"Normal" for north Houston (IAH) would be a low of 46 and a high of 66 by next weekend. A temperature of 25F below normal would mean lows in the low 20s and highs in the low 40s. Just to put the anomalies in perspective.

Extremely true. And I think 40s are the likely outcome in that case. However, to have every part of the United States, with the exception of Miami FL and Juneau AK, at below to well below average temperatures is a sight to behold IMO.

[Iceresistance]

12z CFS is now going again, better late than never!

[harp]

12z CFS is now going again, better late than never!

Let us know!

[txtwister78]

Steve McCauley does not seem too impressed.

"The first phase of our two-step Arctic Air Invasion has been put on temporary hold and no longer appears to hit with much strength by Sunday morning. The cold air is very shallow which makes it relatively easy to push it away from north Texas. So, although it will be turning colder, the "mother load" of the cold air will be delayed a few days. But our winds will not be able to keep it at bay forever, so it will still hit, it just won't be in multiple phases as originally expected.

I am in hopes that since it now appears to hit with one primary blast, that it won't defoliate my palms!!

Stay tuned for updates and enjoy the 60s today and 70s tomorrow."

I think he's simply talking about the first surge that models had coming earlier in the week for Sunday and into the early part of next week.

[rwfromkansas]

I am glad somebody is posting model runs so I don't have to look. So stressed trying to get the yearbook done in this COVID year by spring break. So far behind. Ugh. Hopefully, we can cover a snow day before too long. Lol. Also I saw Steve M say that yesterday, but I think he is mainly focused on the early cold since it's the easiest for his method to analyze.

[txtwister78]

That really is something else...

"Normal" for north Houston (IAH) would be a low of 46 and a high of 66 by next weekend. A temperature of 25F below normal would mean lows in the low 20s and highs in the low 40s. Just to put the anomalies in perspective.

Extremely true. And I think 40s are the likely outcome in that case. However, to have every part of the United States, with the exception of Miami FL and Juneau AK, at below to well below average temperatures is a sight to behold IMO.

Bingo. Impactful to millions (not just one location)

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

12z GEFS has stopped at 330 Hours for some reason, but I'll show the ensembles anyway . . .

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_330.png

My Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 12 & 14.

A bit late, but for sheer hilarity I want ensemble member 20 to verify so that Houston ends up with more snow than DFW.

[Brent]

12z GEFS has stopped at 330 Hours for some reason, but I'll show the ensembles anyway . . .

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_330.png

My Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 12 & 14.

A bit late, but for sheer hilarity I want ensemble member 20 to verify so that Houston ends up with more snow than DFW.

That would fit the way things have been around here lately tbh

[WinterMax]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

HRRR indicates freezing level is at about 750mb (maybe 8500 ft). There is no moisture in sub-freezing air. If this is true, then the only thing you could be seeing is small hail. Sleet is frozen rain.

Call it hail if you want, lol

[Iceresistance]

Late 12z CFS calling for Winter Storm in Oklahoma & Northern Texas Next week.

[Rgv20]

18zGFS followed the 12zECMWF on the placement of the PV to just north of North Dakota....it seems the farther west it retrogrades the slower the Arctic Front?? But would seem to eventually dump the mother load straight South? I might be wrong...Ntxw want to chime in?

[orangeblood]

Not necessarily...the concern is the stronger the PV/more tightly wound, the more it will bottle up Arctic Air across the northern tier then eventually get pulled more eastward instead of South. That scenario is becoming more and more of a threat. IMO a Stronger PV oriented east/wast like that is not what we want

This is a good illustration of the Arctic Air getting bundled up by the stronger PV...here's another Run to Run Temp change map, notice the colder temps (from previous run) to our Northwest/warmer temps in the southern plains. Doesn't mean it's not coming this way, it could just be delayed!!

[Haris]

Late 12z CFS calling for Winter Storm in Oklahoma & Northern Texas Next week.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat.conus9195a722efb949a7.png

I think you should know now that hour 288 is trash and you've seen what just happened today in a window much before that