Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

Late 12z CFS calling for Winter Storm in Oklahoma & Northern Texas Next week.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat.conus9195a722efb949a7.png

I think you should know now that hour 288 is trash and you've seen what just happened today in a window much before that

True, but it was the only feature before +300 hours ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow: Not necessarily...the concern is the stronger the PV/more tightly wound, the more it will bottle up Arctic Air across the northern tier then eventually get pulled more eastward instead of South. That scenario is becoming more and more of a threat. IMO a Stronger PV oriented east/wast like that is not what we want

And here we go. I was waiting for this. All this buildup and everything looking so perfect.

On to the next chance. It's only 300+ hours out

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS seems to be trending slower and warmer

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS seems to be trending slower and warmer

What do you mean? It's trending NASTY COLD for WEEKS TO COME!

[Iceresistance]

I may never see a Forecast like KWTV-News 9 for a LONG time.



Coldest Stretch since 1996!

[Iceresistance]

KFOR: SnOW EVerYWheRe

[Cpv17]

I figured we would see some bad trends at some point. If you can even call this a trend? I think so

[Iceresistance]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

HRRR indicates freezing level is at about 750mb (maybe 8500 ft). There is no moisture in sub-freezing air. If this is true, then the only thing you could be seeing is small hail. Sleet is frozen rain.

Call it hail if you want, lol

Was there Lightning when it was sleeting/hailing?

[HockeyTx82]

KFOR: SnOW EVerYWheRe

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/7day222a7047ff85a9e6.jpg

40%, does not look like everywhere to me?

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t know what to make of the models at this point other than that it’s probably going to be pretty cold for a while, and there will probably be some chance for winter weather. The variability in the 500mb pattern, let alone the surface, at day 6 looks more like something I would expect at day 16.

Kind of reminds me of what people always say about the globals getting wonky in the mid-range, which is where we are right now.

[starsfan65]

I figured we would see some bad trends at some point. If you can even call this a trend? I think so

a bad trend?

[gboudx]

:uarrow: Not necessarily...the concern is the stronger the PV/more tightly wound, the more it will bottle up Arctic Air across the northern tier then eventually get pulled more eastward instead of South. That scenario is becoming more and more of a threat. IMO a Stronger PV oriented east/wast like that is not what we want

And here we go. I was waiting for this. All this buildup and everything looking so perfect.

On to the next chance. It's only 300+ hours out

Yep, I've also been waiting for the 1st sign that all this build-up and hype the past few pages might come crashing down. I think it'll get colder than we've seen for a couple years, but it seems like something always comes along that changes thing. It's the constant.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR: SnOW EVerYWheRe

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/7day222a7047ff85a9e6.jpg

40%, does not look like everywhere to me?

In Oklahoma, I've never seen so much Snow chances in one week EVER!

[Ntxw]

18zGFS followed the 12zECMWF on the placement of the PV to just north of North Dakota....it seems the farther west it retrogrades the slower the Arctic Front?? But would seem to eventually dump the mother load straight South? I might be wrong...Ntxw want to chime in?

https://i.imgur.com/oPjheTd.png

https://i.imgur.com/6jlLO6q.png

The rex block is causing the issues on the models. There isn't really much concern in my view. Like I said a few days ago you're going to go mad if you're looking for hot pinks and purples in any one area. The TPV is going to the Lakes region that part isn't going to change. Surface cold is the dominating factor and CPC analogs suggest HP dome is going to force cold down the plains. Adjustments in the TPV and following cold with it is only going to drive one insane.

Also since last night we have been trending more SW flow aloft and this is what gives us better odds of winter storm(s). At the same time that zonal type flow the models want to bottle up the cold vs NW flow, whether that translates true at the surface more times than not the cold pushes any way at the lower levels.

If you sat back and look at the run comparison, the cold upper flow has been shifting westward with the analog package.

[Texas Snow]

People have said all week and have said for years, watching every model run is going to drive you crazy. If I was going to let a run get me down today, that all disappeared when Wxman57 actually went shopping for cold weather supplies.

Seriously

[Iceresistance]

People have said all week and have said for years, watching every model run is going to drive you crazy. If I was going to let a run get me down today, that all disappeared when Wxman57 actually went shopping for cold weather supplies.

Seriously

I already have mine ready, this is serious business, Wxman57 is likely stocking up on Heaters. So he can use them to shoo the PV away later on.

[Ntxw]

Here is the Euro trends to put emphasis the point this is going west in the larger picture.

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Ensembles are done



My Personal Favorites are Members 2, 3, 4, & 17

DFW Snow lovers will chose 3 & 6 for their personal Favorites.

[Ntxw]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

[Iceresistance]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Same year I got the 2013 Christmas Ice Storm