Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

18zGFS followed the 12zECMWF on the placement of the PV to just north of North Dakota....it seems the farther west it retrogrades the slower the Arctic Front?? But would seem to eventually dump the mother load straight South? I might be wrong...Ntxw want to chime in?

https://i.imgur.com/oPjheTd.png

https://i.imgur.com/6jlLO6q.png

The rex block is causing the issues on the models. There isn't really much concern in my view. Like I said a few days ago you're going to go mad if you're looking for hot pinks and purples in any one area. The TPV is going to the Lakes region that part isn't going to change. Surface cold is the dominating factor and CPC analogs suggest HP dome is going to force cold down the plains. Adjustments in the TPV and following cold with it is only going to drive one insane.

Also since last night we have been trending more SW flow aloft and this is what gives us better odds of winter storm(s). At the same time that zonal type flow the models want to bottle up the cold vs NW flow, whether that translates true at the surface more times than not the cold pushes any way at the lower levels.

If you sat back and look at the run comparison, the cold upper flow has been shifting westward with the analog package.

https://i.imgur.com/IqlXriU.gif

Great analysis....the cold upper flow (trend) is right where you would want it to be just from a climatological standpoint. One model run does not change the dynamics/pattern still in play. Until those begin to change, I wouldn't "panic" if you're wanting more cold down our way.

[Cpv17]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Do you have the one from January 2018?

[orangeblood]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Yeah, Dec 2013 had a 6 day stretch of around 16-17 Deg F below normal. According to latest GEFS, possibility of a 7 day stretch of 18-20 F below late next week and beyond. This may be closer to Feb 2011

[Iceresistance]

Confidence level for Snow this Saturday for

NE & Northern Oklahoma: 90%
Central Oklahoma: 60%
Eastern Oklahoma: 70%

Impacts: All Minimal

My Discussion:

The Model are once again increasing confidence for some snow from Northern Oklahoma to Northeastern Oklahoma & maybe Central Oklahoma.
The area of snow in Central & Eastern Oklahoma is highly dependent on where the Temperatures are going to fall at least below 36°F.
The timeline of snow is Saturday Morning to Saturday Afternoon with falling Temperatures throughout the day.
Impacts are very minimal because of warm ground Temperatures & maybe a slick bridge at best.
The amount of snow is low because almost all of the snow will melt upon contact with the ground.

[Cpv17]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Yeah, Dec 2013 had a 6 day stretch of around 16-17 Deg F below normal. According to latest GEFS, possibility of a 7 day stretch of 18-20 F below late next week and beyond. This may be closer to Feb 2011

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

[Iceresistance]

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Yeah, Dec 2013 had a 6 day stretch of around 16-17 Deg F below normal. According to latest GEFS, possibility of a 7 day stretch of 18-20 F below late next week and beyond. This may be closer to Feb 2011

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

Nasty Winter storm & all-time record low in Oklahoma (-31°F in Nowata)

[orangeblood]

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Yeah, Dec 2013 had a 6 day stretch of around 16-17 Deg F below normal. According to latest GEFS, possibility of a 7 day stretch of 18-20 F below late next week and beyond. This may be closer to Feb 2011

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

Here was the DFW Feb Summary that year




PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION: DALLAS FORT WORTH
MONTH: FEBRUARY
YEAR: 2011
LATITUDE: 32 54 N
LONGITUDE: 97 2 W

TEMPERATURE IN F: CPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY K WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================

1 38 14 26 -20 39 0 0.41 0.9 1 26.4 40 320 M M 9 134689 51 320
2 20 13 17 -29 48 0 0.00 0.0 1 18.1 26 340 M M 9 31 340
3 23 17 20 -27 45 0 0.01 0.2 1 12.2 21 10 M M 10 25 360
4 29 19 24 -23 41 0 0.15 2.6 3 8.6 15 310 M M 7 1 17 300
5 54 17 36 -11 29 0 0.00 0.0 2 6.2 12 230 M M 2 15 220
6 54 35 45 -2 20 0 0.03 0.0 T 9.1 23 340 M M 8 26 330
7 49 32 41 -6 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.2 24 330 M M 3 30 320
8 56 29 43 -5 22 0 T 0.0 0 13.5 24 130 M M 3 31 140
9 47 16 32 -16 33 0 0.17 0.3 T 19.9 33 320 M M 9 1469 39 320
10 36 15 26 -22 39 0 0.00 0.0 T 5.3 17 340 M M 0 20 110
11 55 20 38 -10 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.1 12 210 M M 1 16 170
12 66 27 47 -2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 18 190 M M 0 22 200
13 73 34 54 5 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.5 25 180 M M 0 30 190
14 72 42 57 8 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.5 18 160 M M 5 22 160
15 77 57 67 18 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 14.6 24 200 M M 5 29 210
16 73 61 67 17 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 18.0 28 180 M M 7 36 170
17 77 63 70 20 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 18.7 28 200 M M 9 35 200
18 82 62 72 22 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 11.5 23 190 M M 5 28 200
19 75 55 65 14 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.9 22 170 M M 6 28 180
20 78 61 70 19 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 18.3 28 190 M M 7 35 200
21 75 45 60 9 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 17.0 32 190 M M 7 39 190
22 67 37 52 1 13 0 T 0.0 0 6.5 20 30 M M 7 25 20
23 70 59 65 13 0 0 T 0.0 0 10.0 18 190 M M 9 1 23 200
24 82 44 63 11 2 0 0.14 0.0 0 16.9 33 270 M M 5 1 43 280
25 57 39 48 -4 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.3 24 340 M M 4 26 340
26 75 42 59 7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 25 190 M M 5 1 31 180
27 77 66 72 19 0 7 0.01 0.0 0 18.1 33 180 M M 7 13 40 190
28 69 45 57 4 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 14.7 32 330 M M 3 39 330
================================================================================
SM 1706 1066 455 28 0.92 4.0 362.6 M 152
================================================================================
AV 60.9 38.1 12.9 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 40 320 # 51 320

[3090]

18zGFS followed the 12zECMWF on the placement of the PV to just north of North Dakota....it seems the farther west it retrogrades the slower the Arctic Front?? But would seem to eventually dump the mother load straight South? I might be wrong...Ntxw want to chime in?

https://i.imgur.com/oPjheTd.png
And the polar air is so dense models do not handle the density of the air all to well. The dense cold air of this air mass will be forced south. Have the faith if your desire is for cold. And be careful what you wish for as it says. You will get it.

https://i.imgur.com/6jlLO6q.png

The rex block is causing the issues on the models. There isn't really much concern in my view. Like I said a few days ago you're going to go mad if you're looking for hot pinks and purples in any one area. The TPV is going to the Lakes region that part isn't going to change. Surface cold is the dominating factor and CPC analogs suggest HP dome is going to force cold down the plains. Adjustments in the TPV and following cold with it is only going to drive one insane.

Also since last night we have been trending more SW flow aloft and this is what gives us better odds of winter storm(s). At the same time that zonal type flow the models want to bottle up the cold vs NW flow, whether that translates true at the surface more times than not the cold pushes any way at the lower levels.

If you sat back and look at the run comparison, the cold upper flow has been shifting westward with the analog package.

https://i.imgur.com/IqlXriU.gif

Great analysis....the cold upper flow (trend) is right where you would want it to be just from a climatological standpoint. One model run does not change the dynamics/pattern still in play. Until those begin to change, I wouldn't "panic" if you're wanting more cold down our way.

The cold is coming. Make no mistake about it. The models do not handle very dense cold air well. The cold air associated with this PV will be forced south. To what extent remains to be seen. But be careful what you wish for. You probably are going to get it and some.

[CaptinCrunch]

Still won't touch this....North Texas Freeze Fest, I remember I was in the 8th grade and schools closed for a week due to natural gas shortages.

Most consecutive hours below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)
Most consecutive hours at or below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)

[Iceresistance]

Still won't touch this....North Texas Freeze Fest, I remember I was in the 8th grade and schools closed for a week due to natural gas shortages.

Most consecutive hours below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)
Most consecutive hours at or below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)

This arctic blast may rival the 1996 Deep Freeze in Oklahoma.

[wxman57]

Where are you getting your ICON model data? The 12z Temps on tropical tidbits are almost as cold as the CMC.

Oops! I think I was using the wrong Thu-Mon temps. Darn, I was liking that model.

[Iceresistance]

Where are you getting your ICON model data? The 12z Temps on tropical tidbits are almost as cold as the CMC.

Oops! I think I was using the wrong Thu-Mon temps. Darn, I was liking that model.

Everyone makes mistakes. No one is Perfect.

(Also, the ICON has trended warmer in some spots in the 18z Model run)

[wxman57]

Here's the corrected graphic starting NEXT Thursday vs. yesterday. I now definitely HATE the ICON model...

[Iceresistance]

Here's the corrected graphic starting NEXT Thursday vs. yesterday. I now definitely HATE the ICON model...

http://wxman57.com/images/HOUTemps12ZFeb5.JPG

Maybe ICON was like "LET IN THE ARCTIC!" "IT'S SHOWTIME!"

[Iceresistance]

Here's the corrected graphic starting NEXT Thursday vs. yesterday. I now definitely HATE the ICON model...

http://wxman57.com/images/HOUTemps12ZFeb5.JPG

The Euro is your last hope now with the average accuracy rate of 90%

[orangeblood]

Still won't touch this....North Texas Freeze Fest, I remember I was in the 8th grade and schools closed for a week due to natural gas shortages.

Most consecutive hours below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)
Most consecutive hours at or below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)

This arctic blast may rival the 1996 Deep Freeze in Oklahoma.

The latest GFS run would rival 1996

[Brent]

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Yeah, Dec 2013 had a 6 day stretch of around 16-17 Deg F below normal. According to latest GEFS, possibility of a 7 day stretch of 18-20 F below late next week and beyond. This may be closer to Feb 2011

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

The infamous Super Bowl week in Dallas I wasn't here then but it was icy for days and then snowed on top of that coldest air of the last decade for sure

By mid February spring had arrived and the rest is history

[Haris]

Here's the corrected graphic starting NEXT Thursday vs. yesterday. I now definitely HATE the ICON model...

http://wxman57.com/images/HOUTemps12ZFeb5.JPG

The Euro is your last hope now with the average accuracy rate of 90%

Where do you get 90% from if I may ask?

[Iceresistance]

Here's the corrected graphic starting NEXT Thursday vs. yesterday. I now definitely HATE the ICON model...

http://wxman57.com/images/HOUTemps12ZFeb5.JPG

The Euro is your last hope now with the average accuracy rate of 90%

Where do you get 90% from if I may ask?

From Mlive.com

The European Model has averaged an accuracy correlation of 0.929. That's pretty good at five days in the future.

(Summer 2020)
weather.us

The ECMWF is generally considered to be the most accurate global model, with the US's GFS slightly behind.

[Iceresistance]

3000 Posts here so far this winter!


Mesoscale models (Including NAM) has started their 0z Predictions for Tomorrow's system.