Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Haris]

The Euro is your last hope now with the average accuracy rate of 90%

Where do you get 90% from if I may ask?

From Mlive.com

The European Model has averaged an accuracy correlation of 0.929. That's pretty good at five days in the future.

(Summer 2020)
weather.us

The ECMWF is generally considered to be the most accurate global model, with the US's GFS slightly behind.

Thanks for the reply.



This isn’t updated but through last fall, aircraft data has considerably dropped because of covid. I’d love a study on how much of an impact it’s had recently with forecasts.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, Dec 2013 had a 6 day stretch of around 16-17 Deg F below normal. According to latest GEFS, possibility of a 7 day stretch of 18-20 F below late next week and beyond. This may be closer to Feb 2011

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

The infamous Super Bowl week in Dallas I wasn't here then but it was icy for days and then snowed on top of that coldest air of the last decade for sure

By mid February spring had arrived and the rest is history

It's the biggest Arctic Outbreak since Feb 1996 for the southern plains region wise. Nowata, Oklahoma set the all time state record of -31F after being buried under two feet of snow. Spread between 2 deep Arctic fronts and 3 major events. DFW would have hit single digits easily, however the incoming system that caused the snow produced cloud cover ahead of it and stopped the drop at 13F.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Euro is your last hope now with the average accuracy rate of 90%

Where do you get 90% from if I may ask?

From Mlive.com

The European Model has averaged an accuracy correlation of 0.929. That's pretty good at five days in the future.

(Summer 2020)
weather.us

The ECMWF is generally considered to be the most accurate global model, with the US's GFS slightly behind.

I don’t think that accuracy correlation is the same thing as what we typically think of in terms of forecasting accuracy, judging from that article, given that it considers 0.8 or anything below inaccurate. A quick google search tells me this is beyond my knowledge of statistics though.
(https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/weather/2020/06/see-for-yourself-why-meteorologists-prefer-the-european-model-over-the-us-model.html%3foutputType=amp)

[HockeyTx82]

Yeah, Dec 2013 had a 6 day stretch of around 16-17 Deg F below normal. According to latest GEFS, possibility of a 7 day stretch of 18-20 F below late next week and beyond. This may be closer to Feb 2011

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

The infamous Super Bowl week in Dallas I wasn't here then but it was icy for days and then snowed on top of that coldest air of the last decade for sure

By mid February spring had arrived and the rest is history

I was ice skating the streets in Denton that week.

[Iceresistance]

I got NAMed

[WacoWx]

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

The infamous Super Bowl week in Dallas I wasn't here then but it was icy for days and then snowed on top of that coldest air of the last decade for sure

By mid February spring had arrived and the rest is history

It's the biggest Arctic Outbreak since Feb 1996 for the southern plains region wise. Nowata, Oklahoma set the all time state record of -31F after being buried under two feet of snow. Spread between 2 deep Arctic fronts and 3 major events. DFW would have hit single digits easily, however the incoming system that caused the snow produced cloud cover ahead of it and stopped the drop at 13F.

Ty so much for always digging up these things. It’s what weather nerds who love weather really enjoy seeing.

Your resources are greatly appreciated.

[Cpv17]

What happened in Feb 2011? I thought that was the bad drought year.

The infamous Super Bowl week in Dallas I wasn't here then but it was icy for days and then snowed on top of that coldest air of the last decade for sure

By mid February spring had arrived and the rest is history

It's the biggest Arctic Outbreak since Feb 1996 for the southern plains region wise. Nowata, Oklahoma set the all time state record of -31F after being buried under two feet of snow. Spread between 2 deep Arctic fronts and 3 major events. DFW would have hit single digits easily, however the incoming system that caused the snow produced cloud cover ahead of it and stopped the drop at 13F.

https://i.imgur.com/G3lauhB.png

Thanks. I don’t think we experienced much from that event down here in southeast Texas because I think I would’ve remembered it.

[Ntxw]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

December 2013 6/10 day was pretty impressive. With the HP showing up in British Columbia I wonder if we get to this point?

https://i.imgur.com/iNz9EeD.gif

Do you have the one from January 2018?

These are what I could find for January 2018. There were two separate cold snaps. One centered around the New Year and the other mid month. Both were Eastern US focused however the eastern half of the state benefited from the very +PNA as for as winter precip (SE Texas and Arklatex).

[HockeyTx82]

Where did everyone go?

[bubba hotep]

Where did everyone go?

Stocking up with alcohol and tissues before the 00z runs.

[orangeblood]

Where did everyone go?

Stocking up with alcohol and tissues before the 00z runs.

Lol at least we’re better prepared now...been left at the altar way too many times not to be!!

[Brent]

Just dry cold on the GFS for Thursday and Friday at least

Not a good start

A little snow on Saturday but again this is 8 days away. I feel like it's never getting closer

[bubba hotep]

Just dry cold on the GFS for Thursday and Friday at least

Not a good start

A little snow on Saturday but again this is 8 days away. I feel like it's never getting closer

Yep, little tailing s/w triggers some snow with cold air in place. The good thing is that it is plenty cold, so only have to worry about losing snow to dry air and not warm surfaces.

ETA: DFW would pickup a couple of very fluffy inches of snow with temps in the teens, should this run verify. I'll take that any day over an ice storm.

[Ntxw]

ICON, GFS, and Canadian all work about the same up until Wednesday. Plenty of cold, gets really cold, ??? about shortwaves or is just dry cold? But then they diverge to about three different solutions after about Wednesday.

[Brent]

CMC brutal cold but dry til an ice storm at day 9-10

DFW below freezing 5-6 days on the GFS

[cheezyWXguy]

CMC brutal cold but dry

DFW below freezing 5-6 days on the GFS

Not even worried about precip at this point. With SW flow overrunning an airmass like this, any ripples in the flow that would create precip won’t be accurately resolved until a day or two before onset. I have to say, this does remind me a bit of 2011, but I’m reserving my expectations on both temps and precip until we’re a lot closer in.

[Ntxw]

Guys! At least we got the Ukmet with blizzard coming in on Thursday.

[Haris]

Whoa

[dhweather]

Well that's interesting.

[Rgv20]

Thru Sunday afternoon Valentines day this are the 0zGFS Ensembles Snow Forecast....Personally I go for P11