Texas Winter 2020-2021

[SnowintheFalls]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/h2Dm3jw/4-B8-CF485-EE84-461-D-AEFD-538-E00693-B57.jpg [/url]

Whoa

If only we could see that within a 3 day window.

[txtwister78]

Just for fun. Talk about a wild output. Most of this is on the front end of that time window (temps), which makes this very cold.

[Cpv17]

Thru Sunday afternoon Valentines day this are the 0zGFS Ensembles Snow Forecast....Personally I go for P11

https://i.imgur.com/DtpCbhO.png

Ehhh honestly that’s a pretty weak signal. I’m honestly not really worried about precip tho till we get within 24 hours.

[Brent]

Euro continues to be much warmer on Thursday lol about 20 degrees warmer than the GFS

Even Friday is much warmer lol

no arctic air through next Saturday

[PTrackerLA]

Euro continues to be much warmer on Thursday lol about 20 degrees warmer than the GFS

Even Friday is much warmer lol

no arctic air through next Saturday

Don't think the arctic air will even drive to the coast this run. Either the Euro is scoring a coup or it's out to lunch vs all other globals. Feels like we're watching the tropics.

[txtwister78]

I would put more trust in this model (temp wise) than I would in the Euro right now. If the NAM (which handles arctic air intrusions in the south much better) begins to trend in a different direction, then I would start to pay more attention to the Euro. Just my .02.

[Brent]

Euro continues to be much warmer on Thursday lol about 20 degrees warmer than the GFS

Even Friday is much warmer lol

no arctic air through next Saturday

Don't think the arctic air will even drive to the coast this run. Either the Euro is scoring a coup or it's out to lunch vs all other globals. Feels like we're watching the tropics.

Doesn't the euro usually win in the tropics lol

[PTrackerLA]

Euro continues to be much warmer on Thursday lol about 20 degrees warmer than the GFS

Even Friday is much warmer lol

no arctic air through next Saturday

Don't think the arctic air will even drive to the coast this run. Either the Euro is scoring a coup or it's out to lunch vs all other globals. Feels like we're watching the tropics.

Doesn't the euro usually win in the tropics lol

Well not in genesis last year, but I'm not ready for all that just give me cold and winter precip once this winter .

[Ralph's Weather]

If I had to bet on it I would bet the cold arrives early as is typical of Arctic air masses . This sure looks like the real deal where we will see sub 30 degree high temps for several days on end. Can DFW finally see single digit temps? Rural areas will very likely see single digits and sub zero may be possible especially if we get a layer of snow first.

[orangeblood]

So does Storkm2k still crown the Euro as King ?? If so, prospects for an intense Arctic Outbreak next week aren't looking good. It retrogresses too far west, bundles the cold, then scours it almost directly east instead of south. That model is trending towards a pretty average cold snap but thankfully we still have the GFS and Canadian in the more intense camp.

Even with the North American models are our side, why do I feel like we're taking a knife to a gun fight ?

Here are the Operational differences for DFW with the Ensembles a little less drastic but still shocking to see inside a week

GFS


CMC


Euro

[Iceresistance]

Guys! At least we got the Ukmet with blizzard coming in on Thursday.

The Model ended just as the heavy snow came in, the full totals may never be known . . .

[orangeblood]

Snippet from the FW NWS office discussion, they appear to be leaning towards the North American models attm!!

Forecast confidence from Tuesday night onward collapses since what
happens in the middle to late parts of next week will be highly
dependent on where the surface cold front stalls and how far south
the mid level baroclinic zone dips. Previous runs of the global
ensembles were much more aggressive with the equatorward plunge
of the Arctic air, but recent runs have been delaying this with
each run...or in some cases (~20% of global ensembles) keeping the
cold air locked over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Our current forecast
is still leaning toward solutions that bring the Arctic air into
North and Central Texas due to favorable global Teleconnection
indices/patterns.

Regardless of what happens with the surface temps, a series of
shortwaves should move overtop of the Plains in the middle to late
parts of next week. As these move through, mid level ascent
should tap into the primed low levels (overrunning conditions with
low-level isentropic ascent) to develop at least scattered areas
of precip. The first shortwave is currently progged to move
through in the Wednesday night to Thursday night timeframe with
another moving through sometime next weekend.

We basically have two scenarios; one where the Arctic air spills
into our forecast area and allows for the possibility of freezing
rain and sleet across much of the area Wednesday night through
Thursday night. The other scenario would keep the Arctic air north
and cause the surface boundary to flutter north/south across our
forecast area with more robust rain chances and thunder potential.
We are leaning toward the colder forecast ATTM, so the official
forecast has maintained mention of winter precip. Please keep in
mind that this could change in the coming days as new data comes
in and the winter weather impacts are still unknown. Even if the
Arctic air is kept north, below normal temperatures are still
expected late next week, next weekend, and the early parts of the
following week.

Bonnette

[Iceresistance]

I'm still trusting on the Ensembles over the Globals for now

0z GEFS (More problems, but managed to get Hour 384 for all of the snow totals! )



My Personal Favorites are Members 1, 4, 17, 19 & 20. (Especially members 17 & 20)

6z GEFS

+144 hours have several Members wanting snow for the Southern Plains at that hour


Total Snowfall


My Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 14, 19 & 20

DFW Snowlovers would go crazy on Member 12

[Portastorm]

“King” Euro at the moment appears to be under the influence of Grima Wormtongue. LOL.

Some of its forecasted max temps in Austin for later next week differ by as much as 35-40 degrees from one cycle to the next.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Is it safe to say that the temps toward the end of next week and next weekend are still very much in the air? Or are the coldest solutions not plausible anymore?

[Cpv17]

So does Storkm2k still crown the Euro as King ?? If so, prospects for an intense Arctic Outbreak next week aren't looking good. It retrogresses too far west, bundles the cold, then scours it almost directly east instead of south. That model is trending towards a pretty average cold snap but thankfully we still have the GFS and Canadian in the more intense camp.

Even with the North American models are our side, why do I feel like we're taking a knife to a gun fight ?

Here are the Operational differences for DFW with the Ensembles a little less drastic but still shocking to see inside a week

GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax/1612591200/1612591200-JQ79ipkwHy4.png

CMC
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gem-all/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax/1612569600/1612569600-9lIDhpQ7zrQ.png

Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf/1612569600/1612569600-va3nlDH6N8g.png

Pretty sure the Euro will cave into the GFS eventually.

[Rgv20]

It seems to me that the 6zECMWF Control Run is not stretching the PV West to East as the 0z/12z ECMWF by 6z Friday. I suspect if todays 12zECMWF trends toward 6z Control run we might see the Arctic air infiltrate all of Texas.

6zECMWF Control Run (6z/18z ECMWF Control Runs only go to 144hrs)


0zECMWF

[wxman57]

Like I said yesterday, I am now in control of the ECMWF. It keeps the front north of Houston. All models are decidedly less cold for Houston. Just a couple of light freezes and some cold highs above freezing.

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS is still showing at least 3 storms from the PV



24-hour Snowfall (Kuchera Ratio)


6z GFS also has 3 storms, similar to the Midnight GFS run.



24-hour Snowfall (Kuchera Ratio)

[HockeyTx82]

Like I said yesterday, I am now in control of the ECMWF. It keeps the front north of Houston. All models are decidedly less cold for Houston. Just a couple of light freezes and some cold highs above freezing.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb6.JPG

Do you think this is things being more realistic or models just having issues with such cold air in place? Local mets here are pitching big cold for DFW. I remember in 2011 it seemed more sure it would happen, but I feel this one may be the usual models show big cold, and I end up wearing shorts and t-shirts.