Texas Winter 2020-2021

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a big winter storm is getting started in Texas at 216hrs on 12z GFS. Cold air still in place.

[orangeblood]

Man, the 12Z GFS Op run at 500mb is textbook for extreme cold/multiple shots at winter storms across the southern plains...defining extreme cold as 20 F or below high temps for DFW, Austin 25 F or below

Shows lows across N. TX in the teens on Saturday but those are probably held up by increasing cloud cover from the incoming s/w that triggers some snow.

GFS is early Feb 2011 temps...Feb 2, 2011 had a high of 20 F low 13 F. This would compete with that, not sure how far back you have to go to find teen for High temps in DFW ...1996 ?

[Ntxw]

Canadian is working on an ice storm for North Texas Thursday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Extreme cold still expected or nah?

If you count the Euro as an outlier run, probably expect the coldest temps since 2018. This morning there was a large area of -20s moving into the northern tier states from Canada and it is currently frigid further north. A slight ripple can make a model go from extremely cold to just very cold.

I appreciate it. With owning livestock it would be smart on my behalf to prepare for extremely cold.

[Ntxw]

Extreme cold still expected or nah?

If you count the Euro as an outlier run, probably expect the coldest temps since 2018. This morning there was a large area of -20s moving into the northern tier states from Canada and it is currently frigid further north. A slight ripple can make a model go from extremely cold to just very cold.

I appreciate it. With owning livestock it would be smart on my behalf to prepare for extremely cold.

Also if forecasting, I wouldn't consider just "is it going to be 10F". The cold once it arrives has the potential for staying power. Being 15F-30F for an extended 48-72+ hours has teeth to it just as much as a night or two of really cold temps.

[Ntxw]

Canadian late in its run has heavy sleet in the low teens? I don't know if I believe that. But clear trend again, lots of SW flow and surface cold.

[Portastorm]

Canadian late in its run has heavy sleet in the low teens? I don't know if I believe that. But clear trend again, lots of SW flow and surface cold.

LOL ... yeah that would be a sleetstorm of Biblical proportions should it verify. But it certainly raises an eyebrow.

[Ntxw]

12z Ukmet has less "snow" than 0z but it also is cold and has frozen precip (can't tell if it's sleet, frz rain, and some snow or all ice, such limited free data). But it blasts the cold right through.


Upper pattern looks like the other models than the Euro. So question is will Euro hold here in the next 2 hours?

[Ntxw]

I wish we had more data from the Ukmet and extended. From an 850mb standpoint it is even colder than the GFS and Canadian as cold as they were. The pattern it has would keep us in the deep freeze for a while.

[orangeblood]

12z Ukmet has less "snow" than 0z but it also is cold and has frozen precip (can't tell if it's sleet, frz rain, and some snow or all ice, such limited free data). But it blasts the cold right through.


Upper pattern looks like the other models than the Euro. So question is will Euro hold here in the next 2 hours?

Ukmet slower with the front though...keeps temps above freezing during bulk of precip. But most important to focus on at this point is S/Ws and moisture, we all know the cold is going to be underestimated this far out

[Cpv17]

That's one hell of a reinforcing cold shot coming down lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020612/gfs_T2m_us_33.png

Goodness gracious, you’re not lying! 26 below in Kansas City?

[Ntxw]

Remember earlier in the week when the models had shown some historic ice/snow events in the southeastern US down to the coast? Well now they are showing much above normal over that way. When in doubt use the analog package as a tool. So when thinking about the panic button, just consider our friends to the east are having a much tougher luck about it than we are.

[bubba hotep]

So question is will Euro hold here in the next 2 hours?

We've all seen this movie before lol

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC wants 'Icezilla' in the Eastern Half of Texas:

[Cpv17]

Remember earlier in the week when the models had shown some historic ice/snow events in the southeastern US down to the coast? Well now they are showing much above normal over that way. When in doubt use the analog package as a tool. So when thinking about the panic button, just consider our friends to the east are having a much tougher luck about it than we are.

Yeah but if that SE ridge gets too close...

[Iceresistance]

INSANE 12z GFS model run

Storm #1 is uncertain
System #2 in at the Red River
Storm #3 is HUGE! And it may rival the 2009 Chirstmas Blizzard & March 5th, 2015 Snowstorm.



24-hour Kuchera Ratio snow totals

[Ntxw]

Remember earlier in the week when the models had shown some historic ice/snow events in the southeastern US down to the coast? Well now they are showing much above normal over that way. When in doubt use the analog package as a tool. So when thinking about the panic button, just consider our friends to the east are having a much tougher luck about it than we are.

Yeah but if that SE ridge gets too close...

It makes less of a difference the further inland in the plains you are with a deep surface pool of cold around. This is why Feb 2011 was hardly an event along the gulf coast. It's increasing the odds of an icing event for the southern plains. That temperature gradient will focus a highway for precip.

[TheProfessor]

The battle of cold and warm will be very interesting. If the cold isn't able to push into the Gulf and the pattern flips into a -PNA, +NAO, +AO, then we could see an explosive start to severe weather season. If we see a front clear the Gulf, then we may see a lid get put on severe weather season until later in March.

[Cpv17]

Remember earlier in the week when the models had shown some historic ice/snow events in the southeastern US down to the coast? Well now they are showing much above normal over that way. When in doubt use the analog package as a tool. So when thinking about the panic button, just consider our friends to the east are having a much tougher luck about it than we are.

Yeah but if that SE ridge gets too close...

It makes less of a difference the further inland in the plains you are with a deep surface pool of cold around. This is why Feb 2011 was hardly an event along the gulf coast. It's increasing the odds of an icing event for the southern plains. That temperature gradient will focus a highway for precip.

That makes sense as to why I don’t recall anything memorable down here in southeast Texas from Feb 2011.

[Ntxw]

The battle of cold and warm will be very interesting. If the cold isn't able to push into the Gulf and the pattern flips into a -PNA, +NAO, +AO, then we could see an explosive start to severe weather season. If we see a front clear the Gulf, then we may see a lid get put on severe weather season until later in March.

The past 2 months has been dominated by the -AO. The first since 2009-2010 winter. The Euro weeklies keeps trying to pop it positive in the week 2 and 3 periods but consistently fails and the -AO continues. When rising out of a deep solar minimum as was 2009-2012 the AO has a tendency to go through long durations of negative values. Also some of the deepest, as in this case, negatives also occur during this transition.