Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

Is the Euro about to kick a big winter storm out across the Southern Plains?

[Haris]

Save it and make sure it show it to your grandchildren later in life, LOL

[txtwister78]

But just think about this and consider consistency and sensitivity. 0z Euro had DFW near 70 next Saturday while 12z is only 20-30F change in the 30s. That's not very reliable.

[Rgv20]

Much better look from the 12zECMWF than last nights 0zECMWF on the 500mb chart.

12zECMWF



0zECMWF

[bubba hotep]

Is the Euro about to kick a big winter storm out across the Southern Plains?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021020612/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

Close but too warm for N. Texas but maybe some wrap around after the surface low passes.

ETA: I wonder if the Euro warm bias with surface temps might really put the baroclinic zone farther south and have this storm actually take a more southerly track than shown?

[wxman57]

Latest models indicate a rather shallow layer of sub-freezing air across TX Fri-Tue. That may be setting the stage for a very significant ice storm (freezing rain and sleet). Can't tell who might be hardest-hit yet. Cold air would need to be deeper for snow. These Arctic fronts can be ice producers with the shallow sub-freezing air and disturbances moving across. Ice threat could extend north of D-FW. I think I'm moving down to the Equator late next week. Maybe Australia. It's quite hot there now.

[Ntxw]

Latest models indicate a rather shallow layer of sub-freezing air across TX Fri-Tue. That may be setting the stage for a very significant ice storm (freezing rain and sleet). Can't tell who might be hardest-hit yet. Cold air would need to be deeper for snow. These Arctic fronts can be ice producers with the shallow sub-freezing air and disturbances moving across. Ice threat could extend north of D-FW. I think I'm moving down to the Equator late next week. Maybe Australia. It's quite hot there now.

Uh I don't think so sir . Late summer polar front in Australia.

[Iceresistance]

Latest models indicate a rather shallow layer of sub-freezing air across TX Fri-Tue. That may be setting the stage for a very significant ice storm (freezing rain and sleet). Can't tell who might be hardest-hit yet. Cold air would need to be deeper for snow. These Arctic fronts can be ice producers with the shallow sub-freezing air and disturbances moving across. Ice threat could extend north of D-FW. I think I'm moving down to the Equator late next week. Maybe Australia. It's quite hot there now.

And I get the Ice Storm from the Euro Model Storm.
I'm in Central Oklahoma, south of the Ice/Sleet/Snow line that is basically on I-40 from OKC to Shawnee, then I-44 from Chandler to Tulsa.



(And also, if that trends south, I may get a nasty snowstorm while DFW gets a BIG Ice Storm)

EDIT: Does anyone here have Ice Totals from the ECMWF-HR model? It would be EXTREMELY useful since I don't have Pivotal Weather Plus.

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/PNfNKQ1/7023971-C-6-FCC-4-B65-91-AE-6443-D3-C31-C96.jpg [/url]


Save it and make sure it show it to your grandchildren later in life, LOL

Is this the 0z Euro vs the latest 12z Euro run?

[Ntxw]

One thing to note, yes even the Euro, and the ensembles keep the TPV/PVa hanging around North America and rebuilds the west Atlantic/AO/NAO ridge which cold air is locked in place on this side of the globe. So I don't believe in any abrupt end to it all. Seasonal favorability of the dominating teleconnection, hopefully February bears fruit to it all.

[Iceresistance]

One thing to note, yes even the Euro, and the ensembles keep the TPV/PVa hanging around North America and rebuilds the west Atlantic/AO/NAO ridge which cold air is locked in place on this side of the globe. So I don't believe in any abrupt end to it all. Seasonal favorability of the dominating teleconnection, hopefully February bears fruit to it all.

What is the ENS Ensembles looking like?

[Ntxw]

One thing to note, yes even the Euro, and the ensembles keep the TPV/PVa hanging around North America and rebuilds the west Atlantic/AO/NAO ridge which cold air is locked in place on this side of the globe. So I don't believe in any abrupt end to it all. Seasonal favorability of the dominating teleconnection, hopefully February bears fruit to it all.

What is the ENS Ensembles looking like?

Continuation of -AO.

[bubba hotep]

One thing to note, yes even the Euro, and the ensembles keep the TPV/PVa hanging around North America and rebuilds the west Atlantic/AO/NAO ridge which cold air is locked in place on this side of the globe. So I don't believe in any abrupt end to it all. Seasonal favorability of the dominating teleconnection, hopefully February bears fruit to it all.

Yep, plenty of cold air across NA at D10 on the Euro



And the end of the 12z GEFS



As I said a bunch of pages back (thread has picked up speed!) the SSW composite lags showed the cold showing up later on and hanging around into March. Then add that to the background state that has favored an active Pacific jet and it is just a matter of time.

[Iceresistance]

One thing to note, yes even the Euro, and the ensembles keep the TPV/PVa hanging around North America and rebuilds the west Atlantic/AO/NAO ridge which cold air is locked in place on this side of the globe. So I don't believe in any abrupt end to it all. Seasonal favorability of the dominating teleconnection, hopefully February bears fruit to it all.

What is the ENS Ensembles looking like?

Continuation of -AO.

Wxman57 is stating to lose control of the Euro model unless it just performed good today.

[Ntxw]

One thing to note, yes even the Euro, and the ensembles keep the TPV/PVa hanging around North America and rebuilds the west Atlantic/AO/NAO ridge which cold air is locked in place on this side of the globe. So I don't believe in any abrupt end to it all. Seasonal favorability of the dominating teleconnection, hopefully February bears fruit to it all.

Yep, plenty of cold air across NA at D10 on the Euro

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021020612/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

And the end of the 12z GEFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021020612/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

As I said a bunch of pages back (thread has picked up speed!) the SSW composite lags showed the cold showing up later on and hanging around into March. Then add that to the background state that has favored an active Pacific jet and it is just a matter of time.

The AO/NAO indexes really dominates in February and March especially once the wavelengths shorten. They are often the determining factors between a cold or warm March.

[wxman57]

Temps not as cold for Houston. May be setting up for an ice storm. ICON coldest. Canadian goes bonkers on Mon-Tue. As for Australia, temps 20 below normal in the Outback mean 90s vs. 110s. I'll be fine there.

Was just thinking, February is often snow month for Houston. The biggest snowfall here on record was on Feb. 14, 1895. That was a few years before I was born. 20" of snow. Air will be too shallow for snow here, though.

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/02/14/houstons-biggest-snowfall-happened-on-valentines-day/

[TropicalTundra]

I swear every time I log back in to this thread there’s like an extra 50 new pages I have to read

[SnowintheFalls]

I swear every time I log back in to this thread there’s like an extra 50 new pages I have to read

I actually enjoy when I come to look at the board and see a lot of new pages. I am just glad there is something to talk about right now!

[Iceresistance]

I swear every time I log back in to this thread there’s like an extra 50 new pages I have to read

I actually enjoy when I come to look at the board and see a lot of new pages. I am just glad there is something to talk about right now!

So do I!

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS with one of the snowier looking means of the winter with the 2" line down to DFW and all of Oklahoma painted 3"+