Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3141 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:39 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro EPS with one of the snowier looking means of the winter with the 2" line down to DFW and all of Oklahoma painted 3"+

Woah! :cold:

What about the Ensemble Members?

EDIT: I would love to see the photos on the EPS Ensemble Members, very useful to see what the EPS Ensemble Members are saying about what may happen during the Polar Vortex.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3142 Postby WinterMax » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:02 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
WinterMax wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
HRRR indicates freezing level is at about 750mb (maybe 8500 ft). There is no moisture in sub-freezing air. If this is true, then the only thing you could be seeing is small hail. Sleet is frozen rain.


No

Call it hail if you want, lol

Was there Lightning when it was sleeting/hailing?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3143 Postby WinterMax » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:02 pm

WinterMax wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
WinterMax wrote:
No

Call it hail if you want, lol

Was there Lightning when it was sleeting/hailing?


No
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3144 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:03 pm

WinterMax wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Was there Lightning when it was sleeting/hailing?


No

That likely means that it was Sleeting! But I once had a hailstorm (Size of Peas) last year without lightning.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3145 Postby WinterMax » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:27 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
WinterMax wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Was there Lightning when it was sleeting/hailing?


No

That likely means that it was Sleeting! But I once had a hailstorm (Size of Peas) last year without lightning.



Wxman57 said it would have been hail, so I went with that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3146 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:30 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro EPS with one of the snowier looking means of the winter with the 2" line down to DFW and all of Oklahoma painted 3"+


How many hours out lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3147 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:33 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro EPS with one of the snowier looking means of the winter with the 2" line down to DFW and all of Oklahoma painted 3"+


How many hours out lol

Maybe to the end of the run, that is usually what I do on the GEFS Ensembles Snow totals
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3148 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:58 pm

70 degrees and some nice 22 mph NW winds. No clouds. Perfect day outside! :sun:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3149 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:59 pm

NWSFWD following the same line of thinking as the general consensus here

As we`ve been advertising over the last couple of days, a second
surge of cold air is expected to arrive mid to late week. It is
quite impressive how guidance continues to show different
solutions. On one side we have the ECMWF keeping the cold air well
to our north, however there`s also a noticeable lack of
consistency between runs. I find hard to believe that this pattern
of shallow but very cold air in place won`t travel all the way
into the region. In contrast, the GFS continues to be pretty
aggressive on bringing the cold air and the wintry mix potential
as the shortwave moves across North & Central TX Wednesday night
and Thursday. The best decision for now is to not stray too much
from the previous forecasts, but keep monitoring the trends over
the next couple of days. Nevertheless, if this cold airmass
actually tracks south into our area, the main story will be the
bitterly cold temps and wind chills expected by Friday and
Saturday mornings, with values in the teens to single digits
possible. Stay tuned!

Sanchez
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3150 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:00 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:70 degrees and some nice 22 mph NW winds. No clouds. Perfect day outside! :sun:

It's 40 at my house & more rain is coming
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3151 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:04 pm

Forecast high today was 54F but looks like we are going to bust low at 48F.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3152 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:18 pm

18z ICON is trending colder . . . :cold:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3153 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:26 pm

12zJMA bringing the Arctic Hammer :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3154 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:34 pm

Rgv20 wrote:12zJMA bringing the Arctic Hammer :cold:

https://i.imgur.com/dmG3pYm.png


WOAH! 1060 MB High in Colorado! :double:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3155 Postby Haris » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:43 pm

ICON is much colder this run FWIW. Hmmm.
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3156 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:45 pm

End of 18z ICON model run has rain in Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas, but the Temperatures are below Freezing, so it's likely it's Sleet or Ice down there.

Image
Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3157 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:54 pm

18z GFS is currently trending slightly warmer (As of +78 hours), but when it's slighty warmer = more moisture.

ETA: Starting at +96 hours, it's now trending colder in some spots in the Southern Plains
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3158 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:06 pm

Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is currently trending slightly warmer (As of +78 hours), but when it's slighty warmer = more moisture.

ETA: Starting at +96 hours, it's now trending colder in some spots in the Southern Plains


Given the issues global models have with shallow cold air, that is probably all freezing rain for N. Texas and Southern OK by Wednesday evening. Looks like probably 10 - 12hrs of freezing rain/drizzle for DFW.

ETA: Looks like a 0.25 - 0.3" of freezing rain, so not a crazy ice storm.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3159 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:12 pm

I know we are still a ways out but is there a reason the moisture keeps showing to be in the eastern half of the state?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3160 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:14 pm

PV Trending stronger again on the 18z GFS run . . .

MSLP of 478 is common just north of Minnesota
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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