Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

I'm on COD Meteorology GEFS Run, & you can see that this site is having issues having it at 12z instead of 18z, I don't know any other Model Sites that do the Enembles without either being too old, must be a member there, or having it, but not the proper Ensembles.

Can you please help me find a good site for it?

[orangeblood]

Here you go...18Z GEFS individual and mean. Quite the winter wonderland in the Southern Plains!!

[Iceresistance]

Here you go...18Z GEFS individual and mean. Quite the winter wonderland in the Southern Plains!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_total_multimember_panel/1612634400/1614016800-EKUQU419l9s.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1612634400/1614016800-F1QgGOJ6Hq4.png

Thanks!

My Personal Favorites are Members 1, 4, 5, 6, 13, 14, 17, 18, & 28!

(Near misses: Members 12 (JUST north of I-40) & 19 (Between 2 Snowstorm areas))

[HockeyTx82]

Are we still in fantasy land or are things starting to actually become a reality? I feel like I'm starting to see posts of slower, few days out, next Monday. At this point it will perpetually keep getting pushed back until Summer.

[Iceresistance]

Are we still in fantasy land or are things starting to actually become a reality? I feel like I'm starting to see posts of slower, few days out, next Monday. At this point it will perpetually keep getting pushed back until Summer.

Might become a Reality, My KWTV-News 9 Meteorologist said that the Polar Air is now in place for invasion, but the first blows are the Canadian air, then comes the Polar Vortex. (YES! Nashville, TN may never get above Zero for 24 hours Next Week! )

[Quixotic]

I’ll take 13 and call it a winter.

[Iceresistance]

I’ll take 13 and call it a winter.

Just like March 4th, 2015!

[WinterMax]

I’ll take 13 and call it a winter.

Just like March 4th, 2015!

These models have lied to me much more than my 2nd ex wife, I'll wait, Lol

[Quixotic]

You know, for a statistician and weather geek, I know surprisingly little about how they vary the ensembles.

[Quixotic]

I’ll take 13 and call it a winter.

Just like March 4th, 2015!

These models have lied to me much more than my 2nd ex wife, I'll wait, Lol

I lol’d for real a bit.

[Cerlin]

You know, for a statistician and weather geek, I know surprisingly little about how they vary the ensembles.

Models are run as initial value problems—due to our lack of boundary layer and higher observations, most atmospheric equations that each model uses are done with assumptions based off the known observations. What ensembles do is they will slightly change one or two variables (whether that be temperature at a certain height or humidity or something) and that can produce different and varied outputs (why some runs have multiple inches of snow and others have nothing). This is overly simplified but covers the basics.

[Brent]

Are we still in fantasy land or are things starting to actually become a reality? I feel like I'm starting to see posts of slower, few days out, next Monday. At this point it will perpetually keep getting pushed back until Summer.

I guess the initial wave Wednesday into Thursday(maybe some light ice) is getting into reality but I'm still very much wait and see especially beyond that and even Thursday there are big differences still. It still feels like to me the interesting timeframe keeps slipping later

I’ll take 13 and call it a winter.

Just like March 4th, 2015!

These models have lied to me much more than my 2nd ex wife, I'll wait, Lol

[Iceresistance]

I’ll take 13 and call it a winter.

Just like March 4th, 2015!

These models have lied to me much more than my 2nd ex wife, I'll wait, Lol

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yo texans its snowing at my place. I hope to transition this good luck to yall(Snow was not in the forecast for me but I got two inches so far.) and especially Wxman57.

[Haris]

I’ll take 13 and call it a winter.

Just like March 4th, 2015!

These models have lied to me much more than my 2nd ex wife, I'll wait, Lol

God love ya

[Ntxw]

Are we still in fantasy land or are things starting to actually become a reality? I feel like I'm starting to see posts of slower, few days out, next Monday. At this point it will perpetually keep getting pushed back until Summer.

It depends on what your expectations are. Holding the idea it will get colder (arctic air mass) then yes it is likely to be reality. At first expectations were just really dry cold but the past day or two the models have trended to seeing disturbances within the air mass. If you were expecting snow or ice earlier in the week that was never the case.

A week ago there wasn't much of anything in sight besides some fantasy Euro snow.

[Iceresistance]

Yo texans its snowing at my place. I hope to transition this good luck to yall(Snow was not in the forecast for me but I got two inches so far.) and especially Wxman57.

What? That is too similar to the December 30th, 2020 Suprise Snowstorm (1.5 inches)

(Also! Take some photos & send a Winter Storm Report to the NWS! There are NO Winter Weather Advisories near Buford, GA! Just like what happened to me on the Surprise Snowstorm!)

[Iceresistance]

Are we still in fantasy land or are things starting to actually become a reality? I feel like I'm starting to see posts of slower, few days out, next Monday. At this point it will perpetually keep getting pushed back until Summer.

It depends on what your expectations are. Holding the idea it will get colder (arctic air mass) then yes it is likely to be reality. At first expectations were just really dry cold but the past day or two the models have trended to seeing disturbances in within the air mass. If you were expecting snow or ice earlier in the week that was never the case.

A week ago there wasn't much of anything in sight besides some fantasy Euro snow.

Also, the Jet Stream is going to be right on top of us, ever increasing Snow/Ice chances with kinks in the Jet Stream.

[Iceresistance]

Global models start running soon, here is the list of the approx. times that the models start running
NOTE: All times are in CST until the 2nd Sunday of March, which is turned into CDT

0z Model Runs
ICON: 8:45 PM
GFS: 9:30 PM
Canadian: 10 PM
UKMET: 11:20 PM (Normally at 12:20 AM, but it has started at 11:20 Instead)
GEFS: Around 9:30-10 PM
ECMWF: Midnight

[Texas Snow]

It depends on what your expectations are. Holding the idea it will get colder (arctic air mass) then yes it is likely to be reality. At first expectations were just really dry cold but the past day or two the models have trended to seeing disturbances within the air mass. If you were expecting snow or ice earlier in the week that was never the case.

A week ago there wasn't much of anything in sight besides some fantasy Euro snow.

My expectations are colder than 10° and over a foot of snow staying frozen on the ground for a week.

That way if it ends up 31° with half an inch of snow my disappointment is still a joy compared to the usual weather around here