Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

Northern Oklahoma, SW Missouri & Southern Kansas got NAMed!

[Iceresistance]

It depends on what your expectations are. Holding the idea it will get colder (arctic air mass) then yes it is likely to be reality. At first expectations were just really dry cold but the past day or two the models have trended to seeing disturbances within the air mass. If you were expecting snow or ice earlier in the week that was never the case.

A week ago there wasn't much of anything in sight besides some fantasy Euro snow.

My expectations are colder than 10° and over a foot of snow staying frozen on the ground for a week.

That way if it ends up 31° with half an inch of snow my disappointment is still a joy compared to the usual weather around here

My Expections are down to 4°F, some winter precip next week that Stays on the ground for DAYS! Which is unheard of in Oklahoma, & up to 8 inches of snow by the week after depending on how the systems come in this direction

[Stormcenter]

This reminds me of hurricane season.

Global models start running soon, here is the list of the approx. times that the models start running
NOTE: All times are in CST until the 2nd Sunday of March, which is turned into CDT

0z Model Runs
ICON: 8:45 PM
GFS: 9:30 PM
Canadian: 10 PM
UKMET: 11:20 PM (Normally at 12:20 AM, but it has started at 11:20 Instead)
GEFS: Around 9:30-10 PM
ECMWF: Midnight

[Cerlin]

This reminds me of hurricane season.

Global models start running soon, here is the list of the approx. times that the models start running
NOTE: All times are in CST until the 2nd Sunday of March, which is turned into CDT

0z Model Runs
ICON: 8:45 PM
GFS: 9:30 PM
Canadian: 10 PM
UKMET: 11:20 PM (Normally at 12:20 AM, but it has started at 11:20 Instead)
GEFS: Around 9:30-10 PM
ECMWF: Midnight

I mean, the way the models are progressing, this is like the 2020 hurricane season for snow lovers!

[Yukon Cornelius]

I’d love to see single digit lows and a few days below freezing. Even without winter precip I’d still be happy. It’s been a couple years since it’s been that cold.

[BrokenGlass]

Who did this?



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[gboudx]

Maybe a guy named Tommy?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Who did this?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210207/ba77b1c170eaac4592f2b27b24120619.jpg


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Lol that is too cold. I like cold but 10 and below is too cold. Don't blame wxman57 because you would see temps in the 90s if it was him.

[rwfromkansas]

This cold reminds me of Dec. 2000 in KS. Not sure if it will have that staying power. I just checked records and it wasn’t as cold as I remember mostly 20s and teens for highs, but the staying power of below freezing was impressive. I recall sledding on a neighborhood pond. It snowed 9 inches in several storms over the month, which wasn’t huge for KS, but there was at least an inch on the ground from Dec. 11 through the end of the month. That never happened before or probably since. That made it memorable. This cold rivals that in severity, and may last awhile.

[Haris]

Hires models coming into consensus namely icon and nam that the front stays N of Austin and we’ll be in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Love it

Now we wait for Friday ..

[Cerlin]

00z GFS is more of the same. Minimal precipitation next week and small variances in front timing and temperatures both colder and warmer at certain points.

[Texas Snow]

Certainly some action on Monday however. Onto the next....

[Cpv17]

00z GFS is more of the same. Minimal precipitation next week and small variances in front timing and temperatures both colder and warmer at certain points.

GFS has a warm bias, remember that.

[Brent]

to the other extreme the CMC has a 3-day ice storm with temps in the teens at the end of the run

but seriously is this ever gonna get closer than 6-7 days out

[txtwister78]

Not much has changed from the GFS overall. Still showing a solid period of well below normal temps late this week into early next week.

[Texas Snow]

Who did this?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210207/ba77b1c170eaac4592f2b27b24120619.jpg


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I just came back to this post to see where broken glass lived and then where the chart was for. Only then did I realize the greatness of this forecast.

[Texas Snow]

GFS has a warm bias, remember that.

An observation, The Nam has DFW at 42 Wednesday morning vs 39 on the GFS. Not too big a difference. But if you look up at Kansas and Nebraska the gfs has 0’s and single digits vs lower 20’s and upper teens on NAM.

Looking across the country I have a hard time buying the gfs (or others) crazy cold temps, much less it being too warm this time around. Time will tell and i hope we end up with a winter to remember but I’m not quite sold yet.

[Brent]

GFS has a warm bias, remember that.

An observation, The Nam has DFW at 42 Wednesday morning vs 39 on the GFS. Not too big a difference. But if you look up at Kansas and Nebraska the gfs has 0’s and single digits vs lower 20’s and upper teens on NAM.

Looking across the country I have a hard time buying the gfs cold temps, much less them being too warm this time around. Time will tell.

I've noticed Wednesday has trended warmer the forecast is now above freezing and rain for that first wave

Could always flip back but you see why I'm still skeptical of much

Also of now no forecast of a subfreezing high

[Cpv17]

GFS has a warm bias, remember that.

An observation, The Nam has DFW at 42 Wednesday morning vs 39 on the GFS. Not too big a difference. But if you look up at Kansas and Nebraska the gfs has 0’s and single digits vs lower 20’s and upper teens on NAM.

Looking across the country I have a hard time buying the gfs (or others) crazy cold temps, much less it being too warm this time around. Time will tell and i hope we end up with a winter to remember but I’m not quite sold yet.

Yeah but it usually has a warm bias. We’ll see what happens this time.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro is a blowtorch lol