gboudx wrote:Cpv17 wrote:If this cold snap doesn’t end up happening and we end up in a torch then this will go down as the biggest bust ever for me. At least that I can remember anyway.
I seem to remember something very similar to this happening within the past 2-3 years. Iirc, it was a January timeframe where a similar arctic outbreak was modeled and of course this board went giddy with excitement. But the models kept pushing it out almost day-for-day until it eventually dropped it, and we got a Pacific torch instead. I’m not saying the same thing will happen here, but this is why I never, ever get my hopes up anymore. Honestly I didn’t want it to get as cold as it was showing so I’m good if it doesn’t happen.
I recall this as well, the arctic blast that never happened.
Meanwhile, in last night's AFD, FWD still left themselves some wiggle room:
As we`ve been advertising over the last couple of days, a second
surge of cold air is expected to arrive mid to late week. It is
quite impressive how guidance continues to show different
solutions.
On one side we have the ECMWF keeping the cold air well
to our north, however there`s also a noticeable lack of
consistency between runs. I find hard to believe that this pattern
of shallow but very cold air in place won`t travel all the way
into the region.
In contrast, the GFS continues to be pretty
aggressive on bringing the cold air and the wintry mix potential
as the shortwave moves across North & Central TX Wednesday night
and Thursday. The best decision for now is to not stray too much
from the previous forecasts, but keep monitoring the trends over
the next couple of days. Nevertheless,
if this cold airmass
actually tracks south into our area, the main story will be the
bitterly cold temps and wind chills expected by Friday and
Saturday mornings, with values in the teens to single digits
possible. Stay tuned!
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
