Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bevolon]

I want to thank all of you for your wonderful insight. I am a winter weather lover and haven't gotten into the maps part of it all so for me it is just fun riding the rollercoaster with everyone! I enjoy all the chat especially on a crazy week as it has been lately. Thanks again!

[Ntxw]

ICON, GFS, Canadian all get DFW into the low to mid single digits at the very least.

Just FYI how many runs over the past decade have we seen single digits? I mean usually we see a map or two a year or other year?

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET trends much colder as well. Will we finally be having a model consensus with tonight's 0z guidance? Trends look promising!

[Ntxw]

0z UKMET trends much colder as well. Will we finally be having a model consensus with tonight's 0z guidance? Trends look promising!

Has DFW low teens @ 0z Sun. If you extrapolated likely single digits by morning.

[txtwister78]

That's insane cold on an ensemble output. Trends definitely coming together for a significant cold outbreak late next week into the weekend.

[Cerlin]

Inconsistency was definitely present for the Euro and CMC and I continue to expect them to shift. However, the GFS and ICON have largely remained the same and the solution will likely resemble their predictions. That being said, I’d expect it to be much warmer—likely in the teens instead of single—but an arctic outbreak is almost sure to happen. I’m just worried about it continuing to get delayed. It’ll be nice to see it 3 days out hopefully.

[Ntxw]

Inconsistency was definitely present for the Euro and CMC and I continue to expect them to shift. However, the GFS and ICON have largely remained the same and the solution will likely resemble their predictions. That being said, I’d expect it to be much warmer—likely in the teens instead of single—but an arctic outbreak is almost sure to happen. I’m just worried about it continuing to get delayed. It’ll be nice to see it 3 days out hopefully.

It should get pretty cold here once the cold air filters in Weds for February. Leading front comes in tomorrow night or so What we're waiting for is if the really cold stuff will reinforce and go from just cold to really cold. There is currently a gradient of deep cold in the central plains. 20s in southern Kansas while near 0 in northern Kansas.

[txtwister78]

CMC ENS trending much colder into the weekend

[Rgv20]

0zCanadian went wild....just remember this temperature forecast is an ENSEMBLE MEAN....WOW

0zCMC Ensemble Mean for Sunday Morning

[Iceresistance]

Just got on for the Euro & all hope is not lost!

[harp]

Let us know that the Euro shows. Keep in mind you guys have some members over here in south Louisiana. Thanks.

[Iceresistance]

I'm behind for GEFS Ensembles, but the Ensembles are starting to get more consistant with winter weather in the Southern Plains

18z


Personal Favorites are Members 2, 4 (Also a Big DFW Snowstorm too), 6, 12, 15, 16, (17 is mainly for DFW), 19 & 20.

I kinda had to show 0z GEFS early, but Ensemble Member #11 has gotten my attention over how much snow is across all of the Southern Plains.



Personal Favorites are Members 3, 5, 6, 7, 11 (Big Favorite there & 14 is a Central Texas snowstorm), 16, 19, & 20.

[Iceresistance]

0z Euro already showing Ice over Central Oklahoma at 84 hours.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF no longer showing the elongated PV to the West Coast of Canada

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm behind for GEFS Ensembles, but the Ensembles are starting to get more consistant with winter weather in the Southern Plains

18z
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_3848fff7e19ed534719.png

Personal Favorites are Members 2, 4 (Also a Big DFW Snowstorm too), 6, 12, 15, 16, (17 is mainly for DFW), 19 & 20.

I kinda had to show 0z GEFS early, but Ensemble Member #11 has gotten my attention over how much snow is across all of the Southern Plains.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_318.png

Personal Favorites are Members 3, 5, 6, 7, 11 (Big Favorite there & 14 is a Central Texas snowstorm), 16, 19, & 20.

Let’s just lock in 11. Everyone wins

[Iceresistance]

I'm behind for GEFS Ensembles, but the Ensembles are starting to get more consistant with winter weather in the Southern Plains

18z
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_3848fff7e19ed534719.png

Personal Favorites are Members 2, 4 (Also a Big DFW Snowstorm too), 6, 12, 15, 16, (17 is mainly for DFW), 19 & 20.

I kinda had to show 0z GEFS early, but Ensemble Member #11 has gotten my attention over how much snow is across all of the Southern Plains.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_318.png

Personal Favorites are Members 3, 5, 6, 7, 11 (Big Favorite there & 14 is a Central Texas snowstorm), 16, 19, & 20.

Let’s just lock in 11. Everyone wins

Hoping that too, this last happened in the March 4th & 5th, 2015 Snowstorm

[orangeblood]

0zECMWF no longer showing the elongated PV to the West Coast of Canada

https://i.imgur.com/ZZLAx4D.png

Lol Opens the flood gates to the Arctic, pure insanity in the model world right now!!

[Brent]

Euro in the mid to upper teens Sunday morning when the GFS CMC Icon have single digits lol highs around freezing

Absolutely zero precip

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF no longer showing the elongated PV to the West Coast of Canada

https://i.imgur.com/ZZLAx4D.png

Lol Opens the flood gates to the Arctic, pure insanity in the model world right now!!

Model run still trickling in at weatherbell but I would guess it will be COLD! Will be a fun few days of model watching...I should be asleep right now but Im glued to the Euro lol

[Iceresistance]

0zECMWF no longer showing the elongated PV to the West Coast of Canada

https://i.imgur.com/ZZLAx4D.png

Lol Opens the flood gates to the Arctic, pure insanity in the model world right now!!

Model run still trickling in at weatherbell but I would guess it will be COLD! Will be a fun few days of model watching...I should be asleep right now but Im glued to the Euro lol

So am I!