Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow:

Oh and if this thing actually verifies ... kudos to Ralph's Weather who stuck to his guns despite the past weekend's computer model schizophrenia!

Thanks, a lot of it is forecasting by feel with models as guidance and not as forecasts.

[mcallum177]

This thread is getting as big as a hurricane thread at this rate....

[TropicalTundra]

Most weather channels are updating the low temperatures. They were forecasting 30 degrees yesterday for me next week, they just lowered it to 13.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro calling for Freezing rain later this week in Oklahoma & Northern Texas, not looking good at all!

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS has me on the warm side of the sloshing front until Thu but it sure looks like the front will sink and stay south over SE TX instead keeping me a drizzly 40-45F until the Arctic air arrives later this week.

[Iceresistance]

GFS has the AO at -4 right now.

[txtwister78]

12z Euro calling for Freezing rain later this week in Oklahoma & Northern Texas, not looking good at all!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc992b9dc107f3dbed.png

Yeah that's been on the last few runs so not too surprising. Still coming in a little colder but the arctic air is dislodging faster and this run looks colder just from the continental map/500 mb. Euro going to do some "catching up" next few runs.

[Ntxw]

Euro's baja low looks slow enough it may induce a snow storm this weekend at least in the frames so far. Compared to the other models it is dragging it's feet.

[Iceresistance]

The PV on the Euro at the CONUS scale.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro calling for Freezing rain later this week in Oklahoma & Northern Texas, not looking good at all!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc992b9dc107f3dbed.png

Yeah that's been on the last few runs so not too surprising. Still coming in a little colder but the arctic air is dislodging faster and this run looks colder just from the continental map/500 mb. Euro going to do some "catching up" next few runs.

1052mb high in the central plains on the Euro is the strongest yet for it. It's definitely breaking down from it's prior attempts to keep it backed up, I agree it's going to do a lot of catching up.

[bubba hotep]

Euro is setting up a hige Southern Plains winter storm.

[ronyan]

There's a low system @120 hr on the Euro 500mb near the Pacific NW that is much weaker compared to the previous run.

[txtwister78]

A map I would draw for fun growing up when I wanted a big snowstorm.

[gpsnowman]

I am eagerly awaiting the euro. I want to see consistency and given that, see if it’s buying into any of these ridiculous temps.

Today may be the day that forecasters start to make a move so if the euro gets colder you might want to tell any friends or family to get whatever they need for extreme cold before it goes to mass public

Other than my wife I have been reluctant to mention this arctic blast to anyone. I think this changes today. Been Lucy'd too many times in the past. This could be one for the record books.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Ensembles have just finished



Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 15, (16 was very close with a LOT of Sleet), 17, 19 & 20.

Mean Snow is 4-6 inches in Central Oklahoma & 1-3 in DFW.

[Ntxw]

Euro gets there with the cold and snow like the other models. It's timing is still slower compared to them (but still faster than prior) and the trend on it is a good one.

So at this point an aggregate of the models is sometime this weekend to V day there is a potential for some kind of significant snow storm to accompany the cold. Timing is uncertain and which disturbance.

[ElectricStorm]

12z GEFS Ensembles have just finished

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_384f8b604f3d29746e4.png

Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 15, (16 was very close with a LOT of Sleet), 17, 19 & 20.

If this were to happen, hopefully it's just snow. Snow is fine, as long as there is no ice involved...

[bubba hotep]

Euro is setting up a hige Southern Plains winter storm.

[weatherdude1108]

This is 1983 and 1989 like stuff for South Texas. I hope our local NWS in Corpus and San Antonio are taking note because their overnight AFD were kind of showing some passing concern. They should be treating this like a storm in Caribbean with eyes for the Western Gulf right now.

Yeah, I was here for the '83 and '89 storms in San Antonio. In the '89 freeze, it got down to 9 degrees (I think, maybe 6 degrees(?)). That freeze killed my dad's entire Ligustrum hedge of six bushes, which he had planted 14 years prior to that freeze. They were at least 6 to 8 feet tall! All turned brown within a couple days afterward. It was shocking.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Ensembles have just finished

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_384f8b604f3d29746e4.png

Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 15, (16 was very close with a LOT of Sleet), 17, 19 & 20.

If this were to happen, hopefully it's just snow. Snow is fine, as long as there is no ice involved...

There is going to be Ice involved in ALL of the Winter Weather situations, but the GEFS Ensembles are showing mostly snow in NE Oklahoma. (All but 2 have at least 1-2 inches of snow up there, mean is 6 inches)