Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1612785600/1613455200-UAWqn24h4Q8.png

What are the Euro & CMC Ensemble members showing in terms of snow?

[bubba hotep]

At DFW, Counting record low highs and record lows the 12z GFS would break 7 records and tie 1. It would break record lows 3 days in a row including setting the 2nd coldest February temp twice.

https://i.ibb.co/cJXfK89/IMG-20210208-131431.jpg

Ok, how believable is that? 7 days way below 32......

Yikes.

My 1st reaction is not believable at all. However, this is starting to feel like Hurricane Laura when models were strengthening it right up to landfall and everyone dismissed them.

[Iceresistance]

At DFW, Counting record low highs and record lows the 12z GFS would break 7 records and tie 1. It would break record lows 3 days in a row including setting the 2nd coldest February temp twice.

https://i.ibb.co/cJXfK89/IMG-20210208-131431.jpg

Ok, how believable is that? 7 days way below 32......

Yikes.

My 1st reaction is not believable at all. However, this is starting to feel like Hurricane Laura when models were strengthening it right up to landfall and everyone dismissed them.

I always keep the antitrust higher because of locally warmer or colder temperatures . . .

[missygirl810]

Can I get y'all's thoughts on central Arkansas about these systems if you have time and don't mind answering?

[orangeblood]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1612785600/1613455200-UAWqn24h4Q8.png

What are the Euro & CMC Ensemble members showing in terms of snow?

Here is the 12Z Mean Euro snowfall map...note that these are 10:1 ratios, ratios would need to be kicked up a notch in these type atmospheric conditions.

[Iceresistance]

Can I get y'all's thoughts on central Arkansas about these systems if you have time and don't mind answering?

Ice is possible today through Thursday/Friday across the Northern Half of Arkansas, basically I-40 & north.

GEFS Ensembles have called for storms in Central Arkansas this weekend, some members are saying up to 12 inches of snow is possible in Little Rock.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1612785600/1613455200-UAWqn24h4Q8.png

Anyone want to go ski Garner State Park next Tuesday? Lol.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1358846428488040450

[wxman57]

Has the heat miser left for the Australian outback?

No, he is still here, trying to build a wall protecting Houston from the cold. If that does not work, he will grab some heaters to shoo away the PV next week.

He's been working hard on that wall, but run by run it is crumbling.

https://i.imgur.com/1klhHoH.gif

I was just about to mention that my US-Canada cold air wall has fallen. Cross-Polar flow has set up. I suspect that it won't get as cold as the GFS (10) or Canadian (7) here in Houston early next week, but Houston could see 2-3 days with highs below freezing. While models are trending colder with each run (Arctic air moving south vs. east), they won't have a handle on the frozen precip until maybe Wed-Thu. For Houston, I wouldn't expect anything but freezing rain and/or sleet. Arctic air may be too shallow for snow. Sub-freezing air may extend only up to 2000-3000 ft Sunday into Monday morning. However, if we (Houston) get any precip beyond Monday afternoon, then the warm nose (mid to upper 40s) aloft may disappear.

I think the GFS & Canadian are so cold due to the frozen precip they're predicting here.

Gotta run, my plane to Australia is here...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

No, he is still here, trying to build a wall protecting Houston from the cold. If that does not work, he will grab some heaters to shoo away the PV next week.

He's been working hard on that wall, but run by run it is crumbling.

https://i.imgur.com/1klhHoH.gif

I was just about to mention that my US-Canada cold air wall has fallen. Cross-Polar flow has set up. I suspect that it won't get as cold as the GFS (10) or Canadian (7) here in Houston early next week, but Houston could see 2-3 days with highs below freezing. While models are trending colder with each run (Arctic air moving south vs. east), they won't have a handle on the frozen precip until maybe Wed-Thu. For Houston, I wouldn't expect anything but freezing rain and/or sleet. Arctic air may be too shallow for snow. Sub-freezing air may extend only up to 2000-3000 ft Sunday into Monday morning. However, if we (Houston) get any precip beyond Monday afternoon, then the warm nose (mid to upper 40s) aloft may disappear.

I think the GFS & Canadian are so cold due to the frozen precip they're predicting here.

Gotta run, my plane to Australia is here...

I suspect you are cooking up a heat wave for the summer. Just do us a favor and make it a dry heatwave with a favorable upper air pattern to shut off the Gulf. I can take 100 plus degrees without the typical humidity.

[mcallum177]

Do we need a snowpack to get that cold? In my little part of DFW, the flat area by the creek by our apartment can get 10 degrees cooler than the air by the street.

[Portastorm]

No, he is still here, trying to build a wall protecting Houston from the cold. If that does not work, he will grab some heaters to shoo away the PV next week.

He's been working hard on that wall, but run by run it is crumbling.

https://i.imgur.com/1klhHoH.gif

I was just about to mention that my US-Canada cold air wall has fallen. Cross-Polar flow has set up. I suspect that it won't get as cold as the GFS (10) or Canadian (7) here in Houston early next week, but Houston could see 2-3 days with highs below freezing. While models are trending colder with each run (Arctic air moving south vs. east), they won't have a handle on the frozen precip until maybe Wed-Thu. For Houston, I wouldn't expect anything but freezing rain and/or sleet. Arctic air may be too shallow for snow. Sub-freezing air may extend only up to 2000-3000 ft Sunday into Monday morning. However, if we (Houston) get any precip beyond Monday afternoon, then the warm nose (mid to upper 40s) aloft may disappear.

I think the GFS & Canadian are so cold due to the frozen precip they're predicting here.

Gotta run, my plane to Australia is here...

Poor fella ... listen, we love ya so we'll send a plane to come get you in about a month. Until then, please allow us control of the thermostat.

[HockeyTx82]

No, he is still here, trying to build a wall protecting Houston from the cold. If that does not work, he will grab some heaters to shoo away the PV next week.

He's been working hard on that wall, but run by run it is crumbling.

https://i.imgur.com/1klhHoH.gif

I was just about to mention that my US-Canada cold air wall has fallen. Cross-Polar flow has set up. I suspect that it won't get as cold as the GFS (10) or Canadian (7) here in Houston early next week, but Houston could see 2-3 days with highs below freezing. While models are trending colder with each run (Arctic air moving south vs. east), they won't have a handle on the frozen precip until maybe Wed-Thu. For Houston, I wouldn't expect anything but freezing rain and/or sleet. Arctic air may be too shallow for snow. Sub-freezing air may extend only up to 2000-3000 ft Sunday into Monday morning. However, if we (Houston) get any precip beyond Monday afternoon, then the warm nose (mid to upper 40s) aloft may disappear.

I think the GFS & Canadian are so cold due to the frozen precip they're predicting here.

Gotta run, my plane to Australia is here...

You called 2011 and it delivered.

So at this point what the only thing that could cause a bust for DFW? Is the old saying nothing be Texas and Canada other then a barb wire fence coming true?

[Quixotic]

Do we need a snowpack to get that cold? In my little part of DFW, the flat area by the creek by our apartment can get 10 degrees cooler than the air by the street.

No, but it helps. December 89 when it hit -1 at DFW there was no snow. I don't think the same system could produce -1 due to UHI effect. We've added a few million people since then.

[wxman57]

12Z model plots are in. Euro 20-25 deg colder. It stalls the Arctic air just north of Houston. That's about as likely as me cycling naked in sub-freezing air. Oops, last call for the flight to Australia. I'll check back in when I reach Sydney.

[orangeblood]

Man, Thursday could spell trouble across North Texas if temps trend downward...Euro ENS QPF values would be a major ice storm. Also, very aggressive with Monday systems

[Longhornmaniac8]

Man, Thursday could spell trouble across North Texas if temps trend downward...Euro ENS QPF values would be a major ice storm. Also, very aggressive with Monday systems

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KFWD/indiv_qpf_24/1612785600/1612785600-lLyhpStPYQ0.png

Any chance you could do a temperature cross section for the Austin area like you did for DFW? I've never seen that presentation before, and it's really interesting.

[missygirl810]

Can I get y'all's thoughts on central Arkansas about these systems if you have time and don't mind answering?

Ice is possible today through Thursday/Friday across the Northern Half of Arkansas, basically I-40 & north.

GEFS Ensembles have called for storms in Central Arkansas this weekend, some members are saying up to 12 inches of snow is possible in Little Rock.

Thanks. Yeah, I am about 30 miles northeast of Little Rock taking care of my mom. Kinda figures NE Texas will get something since I am not home lol.

[bubba hotep]

Man, Thursday could spell trouble across North Texas if temps trend downward...Euro ENS QPF values would be a major ice storm. Also, very aggressive with Monday systems

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KFWD/indiv_qpf_24/1612785600/1612785600-lLyhpStPYQ0.png

9z SREF had a few members below freezing and the other models show it being close but DFW staying above freezing. Now take that and spin in the issues with handling shallow cold air movement...

[rwfromkansas]

So, some of these models I think would make it cold enough to freeze area ponds in DFW. Not sure about lakes.

I just Googled this, and one site claims it takes weeks of freezing temps to be solid. That's absurd from my memory as a kid. Every couple years it would get cold enough to skate or sled on ponds for at least a few days a year. It didn't take long if 20 or below.

The colder the better for this though. If it's hovering just below 32, there's not much chance of freezing water here in Texas.