Texas Winter 2020-2021

[ThunderSleetDreams]

HEY Y'ALL! YOU RANG?

Look who woke up!

Been in a bourbon haze since the last snow storm.

I’m ready for some single digits and heavy sleet and lightning. Let’s make it happen

[Texas Snow]

Big implications for DFW however as NAM shows light precip from Wed into Thur morning and this run was just warm enough to keep it liquid if true.

[rwfromkansas]

That bullish NWS discussion I think increases confidence here that Lucy isn't pulling the football on the cold. The opera singer is taking a break. Will it get below zero? I doubt it. But, this will be more than our usual few days of just barely below freezing for our "winter." This will be legit.

Honestly, I don't see how the NAM can be right keeping temps above freezing Thursday morning. It's odd that it does so since it usually shows shallow cold better.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I can’t post the NWSAustin/San Antonio AFD, but they are getting on board . Mentioned McFarland Signature. Yep big Freeze events of 83 and 89 were this.

Still looks like they are hesitant to go all in towards the later of the forecast period.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

LOL, the NAM more than 48 hours out.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion....They did mention that the ECMWF is warmer but In my opinion its a bit unrealistic as it slows way down the Arctic Front before reaching the Rio Grande Valley seems very unlikely to me.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Above normal temperatures
will continue across deep south Texas Wednesday into Thursday
before an Arctic cold front moves into the CWA Thurs night. After
that...the forecast will be challenging as far as
temperatures...rain chances and the type of precipitation through
the weekend into early next week as the global deterministic
forecast models continue to show considerable differences in
temperatures and rain chances Friday through Monday. The 12Z GFS
is considerably colder than previous model runs and is now
advertising the potential for freezing temperatures Sunday and
Monday across most of the Rio Grande Valley and northern
ranchlands especially the morning hours of Sunday and Monday. The
12Z ECMWF is considerably warmer than the GFS with the potential
for freezing across the northern ranchlands Monday morning. Will
continue to go with a blend of the NBM/GFS/ECMWF MOS for
temperatures through the long term forecast which expects a light
freeze across the northern ranchlands Sun morning and a light
freeze across most of deep south Texas Mon morning. The other
concern is the potential for mixed frozen precipitation Sunday
into Monday. Too early to say what the mix would be at this time
but will go ahead and mention a slight chance of light freezing
rain across the area early Monday morning for now.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Brownsville is even more bullish! They are a go for a freeIng precip on Monday!

[weatherdude1108]

Here's the EWX discussion. GFS is smokin' something. They're lowering their temps for the weekend, but not to the 12Z GFS numbers. Ensembles vary. I'd rather have upper teens to 20s rather than single digits. Our homes aren't quite built for that kind of 12Z GFS craziness.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
311 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
A rather tricky forecast for the short term as a cold front will
attempt to move through the area, but likely get hung up somewhere
within our northern and eastern counties Tuesday afternoon. An
arctic cold front is slowly pushing southward over NW Texas and the
Panhandle into portions of Texhoma, as high level clouds stream in
from the southwest over South-Central Texas. Morning clouds and low
stratus have begun mixing out, allowing for sunshine to filter
through. Temperatures should easily top out in the 70s today, but
enjoy it, as this could be one of our warmest days for quite some
time.

For tonight, expect winds to turn more southerly and variable, with
nearly calm conditions at the sfc ahead of the approaching cold
front. Widespread fog is expected to form tonight, as shallow
moisture pools over the Coastal Plains/Hill Country/I-35 Corridor
through Tuesday morning. Visibilities could drop to less than a 1/2
mile for locations mainly along and east of I-35, but some dense fog
could materialize at times in the San Antonio and Austin Metros. The
fog should lift by mid-morning Tuesday, but then things get even
more interesting. The cold front we`ve been talking about for what
seems like weeks, will begin pushing into our northeastern counties
Tuesday afternoon. This will present a challenge for high
temperatures. Have opted to go with a blend of the NAM/TTWRF/GFS
with this boundary slipping as far south as the Comal, Caldwell, and
Fayette counties Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures north of the front
will struggle to get out of the upper 50s and lower 60s, whereas
south of the boundary, widespread 70s and even lower 80s look
likely. Temperatures will also be on the cooler side behind the
boundary for Tuesday night, as it holds up/stalls out over the
Coastal Plains and Hill Country.

With regard to precipitation chances, the airmass is rather shallow,
and so is the moisture when looking at model soundings. We may some
drizzle or light mist out of those clouds Tuesday night into early
Wednesday am, but not enough to mention any PoPs at this time. Upper
level support will arrive just outside of the short term forecast
period, warranting precipitation chances.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
A challenging forecast period is in store from mid-week through the
upcoming weekend across south central Texas. The main concern will
be the potential for much colder temperatures late this week into
early next week.

Beginning Wednesday morning, we will likely see the leading edge of a
shallow cold front in place across portions of the Hill Country near
Burnet eastward into the I-35 and Highway 77 corridors. With shallow,
cold air near the surface and moist air just above this layer, this
warm air advection pattern favors light shower development across
most areas, except out west along the Rio Grande. A few rumbles of
thunder are also possible Wednesday afternoon, but overall chances
for thunderstorms remain fairly low at this time. The temperature
forecast will be tricky as the leading edge of the front may slow
its southward progress or retreat northward during the afternoon
hours. The cold front looks like it will make some southward progress
Wednesday night and with southerly flow just above the cold air
remaining in place, some additional showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two (mainly west/south of I-10) can be expected.

The cold air looks to deepen on Thursday as a mid and upper level
trough approaches from the west. Intermittent showers along with a
low chance for a thunderstorm or two along the Rio Grande are in the
forecast. With fairly high rain chances in the forecast and cold air
advection, we have lowered the high temperature forecast for
Thursday. If the rain is a little more persistent, we will need to
lower our forecast high temperatures on Thursday. As the upper level
trough passes over and eventually to our east Thursday night into
Friday morning, we will see a quick decrease in rain chances from
west to east. For now, we will only keep a 20% chance of rain
Thursday evening for areas east of I-35, then go with a dry forecast
as we head into early Friday morning. We do have a decent amount of
atmospheric moisture in place as the cold front and upper level
trough interact across the region. Rainfall amounts Wednesday and
Thursday should average less than one-tenth of an inch across the Rio
Grande plains, with amounts increasing to around one-quarter of an
inch for the Hill Country and along the I-35/I-37 corridors. Amounts
increase over the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor with average
amounts around one-half inch.

The forecast for late this week into early next week continues to
present a challenge. The upper air pattern late this week (Friday)
does favor Arctic air moving southward into the southern U.S.
plains. There is plenty of cold air bottled up over northwest Canada
and northern Alaska with afternoon temperatures around -35 to -40F
and surface pressures close to 1060mb. The mid-level flow pattern
somewhat resembles a McFarland signature on Friday, with a ridge
just off the west coast and a east-west oriented trough along the
Canadian/U.S. border. As of now, it appears this pattern does not
remain intact for too long. While our confidence is good we will see
colder temperatures, the amount of cold air that will be able to move
this far south remains in question. For now, we will keep highs in
the mid 40s to mid 50s on Friday, with temperatures set to trend
downward for the upcoming weekend into early next week. We have not
trended the forecast toward the latest 12Z GFS. We continue to see
quite the spread among the ensemble model members and our forecast in
the GFS numbers is not very high at this time. However, we did opt
to drop our forecast highs and lows for the upcoming weekend, with
highs in the 30s and 40s on Sunday, with lows in the teens to upper
20s.

The forecast for early next week bears watching as the medium range
models show an upper level trough moving in from the west. The
atmosphere looks to remain dry as this system moves through, so we
will not mention any precipitation in the forecast at this time.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I was really expecting/hoping for EWX office to be more bullish about the upcoming weekend/early part of next week. Guess time will tell.

[Captmorg70]

If anyone has looked at the 12z and 18z RGEM runs, that’s a big nope from me on how Wednesday night/ Thursday Morning sets up.

As depicted, couple tenths of qpf in upper 20s would be a mess.

[txtwister78]

While they are the official forecast for our weather, it's been my experience that when winter weather/rare cold outbreaks occur in our region, the forecast offices are known to be conservative at the outset and then gradually get more bullish as the event draws closer. It's much easier to adjust up than to go "all in" on something still several days away. My guess is they want to see a few more runs of the Euro before ramping up expectations. It's really not a question of cold anymore...it's how cold do we get and what kind of winter precip will our region be dealing with/when.

[bubba hotep]

LOL, the NAM more than 48 hours out.

#Sonic

[orangeblood]

If anyone has looked at the 12z and 18z RGEM runs, that’s a big nope from me on how Wednesday night/ Thursday Morning sets up.

As depicted, couple tenths of qpf in upper 20s would be a mess.

Yeah, this setup could get nasty on the front and back end of this Outbreak!

[Iceresistance]

Still getting colder outside & still Freezing Mist (Winter Weather Advisory now until Midnight)

26°F at my house (Also 26°F in town, recently got home from School)
24°F in OKC
14°F in Alva, OK (Wind Chill of 0°F)

[Iceresistance]

Are you seeing what KFOR is forecasting!? Highs in the Single Digits & Lows near ZERO!

[Haris]

Someone reassure me that the GFS warming again for Thursday isn't a harbinger of whats to come LOL.

[ElectricStorm]

:shocked!:

Are you seeing what KFOR is forecasting!? Highs in the Single Digits & Lows near ZERO!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/7day89bbab0eec8b63d0.jpg

Similar for me up here as well. This will be the coldest we've had in a few years. It's been a far minute since we've had highs not break 20

[Iceresistance]

:shocked!:

Are you seeing what KFOR is forecasting!? Highs in the Single Digits & Lows near ZERO!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/7day89bbab0eec8b63d0.jpg

Similar for me up here as well. This will be the coldest we've had in a few years. It's been a far minute since we've had highs not break 20

It's really bad, last time something like this happened was in February 2011.

[Hurricane_Apu]

NWS Lake Charles just drew a line in the sand, calling for a total non-event. Coldest weather in a generation? Not even the coldest of this winter (they have Lafayette bottoming out at 32, coldest day so far here was 29). They're all in on the Euro and that SE ridge, expecting lowest temps on Sunday and a rapid warmup starting Monday...

[Cerlin]

NWS Lake Charles just drew a line in the sand, calling for a total non-event. Coldest weather in a generation? Not even the coldest of this winter (they have Lafayette bottoming out at 32, coldest day so far here was 29). They're all in on the Euro and that SE ridge, expecting lowest temps on Sunday and a rapid warmup starting Monday...

Not too familiar with what the models are showing for LA but based off of the massive temperature busts across the U.S. today, I think it'd be erroneous to guide purely based off the Euro. The GFS has been vastly outperforming it thus far.