Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Rgv20]

Someone reassure me that the GFS warming again for Thursday isn't a harbinger of whats to come LOL.

The cold is coming is just a matter of timing, 18zGFS has the PV a tad more west than the 12z run and that is messing up with the timing. In my opinion the Arctic Dam is already leaking just a matter of time before it breaks!

[Rgv20]

When to we start to worry of the possibility of the GFS verifying?

18zGFS Sunday Morning

[bubba hotep]

NWS Lake Charles just drew a line in the sand, calling for a total non-event. Coldest weather in a generation? Not even the coldest of this winter (they have Lafayette bottoming out at 32, coldest day so far here was 29). They're all in on the Euro and that SE ridge, expecting lowest temps on Sunday and a rapid warmup starting Monday...

Sounds like a copy and paste of the Euro but the 12z does get y'all down to 27F on Monday.

[South Texas Storms]

Someone reassure me that the GFS warming again for Thursday isn't a harbinger of whats to come LOL.

The cold is coming is just a matter of timing, 18zGFS has the PV a tad more west than the 12z run and that is messing up with the timing. In my opinion the Arctic Dam is already leaking just a matter of time before it breaks!

Yep I've been saying this since last week. We'll likely be seeing an extended period of cold temperatures along with a few threats of frozen precipitation beginning later this week and continuing through early next week. The time to prepare is now!

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm forecasting the lowest temps for Tuesday morning after the Monday snow. Best chance in a really long time for sub zero lows. Monday could have snow with highs around 15.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS maintains the weekend blizzard followed by a Monday snowstorm that hits the red river area, followed by a STX gulf icy snowy mess on Tuesday with smaller snow bands across multiple parts of TX. Pretty consistent with the prior GFS runs.

[wxman57]

Just arrived in Sydney. Have a crew up at the US/Canada border trying to reinforce my wall, but I think it's too late. Oh well, I'll be laying on the beach Down Under while you folks enjoy your cold.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

LOL, the NAM more than 48 hours out.

#Sonic

I profusely apologize for my stutter and ignorance, but I don't savvy on this response?

Mwah. Love you cold lovers long time!

[HockeyTx82]

Just arrived in Sydney. Have a crew up at the US/Canada border trying to reinforce my wall, but I think it's too late. Oh well, I'll be laying on the beach Down Under while you folks enjoy your cold.

Wow, that was a quick flight. What airline?

[wxman57]

Just arrived in Sydney. Have a crew up at the US/Canada border trying to reinforce my wall, but I think it's too late. Oh well, I'll be laying on the beach Down Under while you folks enjoy your cold.

Wow, that was a quick flight. What airline?

Borrowed a hypersonic jet from NASA. All the way there at a flight level of 100,000 ft in just about 2 hrs.

[Cerlin]

Just arrived in Sydney. Have a crew up at the US/Canada border trying to reinforce my wall, but I think it's too late. Oh well, I'll be laying on the beach Down Under while you folks enjoy your cold.

Wow, that was a quick flight. What airline?

I think he stole one of Space X's self-landing rockets to shoot off to the land down under.

EDIT: Nvm, he beat me to it. Silly NASA.

[gpsnowman]

Just arrived in Sydney. Have a crew up at the US/Canada border trying to reinforce my wall, but I think it's too late. Oh well, I'll be laying on the beach Down Under while you folks enjoy your cold.

Heehee. Drive to Melbourne the Australian Open is underway. Always hot as hell during the first tennis major.

[rwfromkansas]

Just arrived in Sydney. Have a crew up at the US/Canada border trying to reinforce my wall, but I think it's too late. Oh well, I'll be laying on the beach Down Under while you folks enjoy your cold.

Your plane is faster than military jets. Pricey ticket.

[ElectricStorm]

:shocked!:

Are you seeing what KFOR is forecasting!? Highs in the Single Digits & Lows near ZERO!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/7day89bbab0eec8b63d0.jpg

Similar for me up here as well. This will be the coldest we've had in a few years. It's been a far minute since we've had highs not break 20

It's really bad, last time something like this happened was in February 2011.

Yep. Along with the huge blizzard followed by extreme tornado season...

[Quixotic]

Similar for me up here as well. This will be the coldest we've had in a few years. It's been a far minute since we've had highs not break 20

It's really bad, last time something like this happened was in February 2011.

Yep. Along with the huge blizzard followed by extreme tornado season...

Plus a huge drought and massive heat wave.

[ElectricStorm]

It's really bad, last time something like this happened was in February 2011.

Yep. Along with the huge blizzard followed by extreme tornado season...

Plus a huge drought and massive heat wave.

Yeah. Pretty crazy how the same year had both the coldest and hottest day ever recorded for my area

[gboudx]

Despite that impressive AFD from DFW NWS, Friday still shows partly sunny with a high of 40. I guess we'll see if that happens or not.

[cheezyWXguy]

Despite that impressive AFD from DFW NWS, Friday still shows partly sunny with a high of 40. I guess we'll see if that happens or not.

I doubt they’d go all in this early, as there’s still time for things to change and this is a rare event if it verifies. More than likely they’ll be playing catch up most of the week

[Rgv20]

NWS Corpus Afternoon Discussion.....Canadian wall breach imminent.

Now the most interesting part really begins heading into the
weekend, which much is determined by the strong low over Canada and
how far south it sinks and inevitably forcing the strong surface
high pressure southward accompanied by arctic air. Right now, the
GFS deterministic output has been the coldest but most persistent,
with a strong surge of arctic air coming through late Saturday
afternoon bringing freezing temperatures along with it, persisting
all the way through Tuesday. Record breaking lows, showing mid-teens
across our northern counties Saturday night through Monday night.
The ECMWF which has been much warmer keeping the arctic air well
north has now trended more towards a colder scenario in the last
couple of run with temps nearing freezing, approaching the GFS
solution. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF continues to go
colder and therefore could potentially increase confidence. The
Canadian is a mix of the two, showing lows in the mid 20s with a
colder blast Monday night. Have included isolated showers Saturday
in advance of the arctic air mass. In regards to temperature, went
with a slightly cooler version of the NBM, having minimum
temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night in the mid 20s in our
northern counties to slightly above freezing over the Coastal Zones.
Most of South Texas is expected to reach freezing temperatures. High
temperatures for now are expected to be in the 40s through the
weekend.

The next big question is whether there will be any frozen precip
during this time frame. Most models are actually in agreement with
bringing another deep mid to upper-level trough through the area on
Monday, along with a surface coastal trough across the southern
Texas Gulf Coast. This lift support along with PWATs nearing normal
may initiate wintry precip as early as late Sunday night continuing
through Monday night. It will be important to look at soundings in
regards to precip type in the next several days, but right now
freezing rain and sleet are more likely than snow. Due to trends
becoming colder with lift support and moisture levels near normal,
have included slight freezing rain potential late Sunday night into
early Monday morning across the Coastal Plains. However, confidence
is very low this far out and will likely need to be adjusted/changed
as confidence increases and more information becomes available. All
are urged to to stay tuned for future forecasts and updates!

[gboudx]

Despite that impressive AFD from DFW NWS, Friday still shows partly sunny with a high of 40. I guess we'll see if that happens or not.

I doubt they’d go all in this early, as there’s still time for things to change and this is a rare event if it verifies. More than likely they’ll be playing catch up most of the week

This past weekend, the forecasted high for this Friday was 33, then 37, then back to 33 as recently as yesterday. So they went in on colder temps already. It's not a big deal, just an observation.