Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

Euro said we would get to low 40s by tomorrow morning, already there and 30s in the northern burbs.

[HockeyTx82]

Most of the models show Texas warming up some on Wednesday, the Euro is about 20F warmer across the Central & N. Texas however - with 60s for DFW vs 40s. The front does finally push south through all of Texas by the end of the run (90hr) but freezing temps are still NW of DFW.

There is some chance the front wavers north some Wed but I doubt to moves that far north. Better chance the front stays down near the coast or maybe 100 miles inland.

I've seen the models mishandle Arctic air many times in my 40+ years as a met in Houston. They don't differentiate between a deep Canadian airmass and a shallow Arctic airmass. Shallow Arctic airmasses don't move back to the north as an upper trof approaches. They usually do OK within about 1-2 days of the arrival.

By the way, I decided to take the jet over to Darwin. Sydney was too cold (mid-60s to mid-70s). It's 88 with a nice breeze currently. Low in the upper 70s. I'd go to the beach, but the saltwater crocodiles are a bit of an issue.

I've got some extended family on my Greek side down there. If you need anything let me know, I'll hit them up.

[weatherdude1108]

I have a tall California fan in the front and a large Texas Sabal Palm in the back. Depending on how things go for Austin, I'll be more concerned about the California palm than the Texas Sabal which is one of only two true native Texas palms, the other being the Palmetto. It should be able to handle some of the sub Freezing temps for a time at least.

I've also not been paying too close attention to the forecast until today due to my time being taken up by other issues. Considering the potential seriousness of what could happen, I'll be monitoring both the forum and NWS consistently throughout the week.

It's going to be a challenge for sure. We have not seen such an extended unbroken freeze since 1996 so for some planters memory proves short. Even in 2011 and 2017/2018 it was a day or two before it moderated some above freezing.

I have a couple of large Sago palms in the ground. They were already here when we moved here in 2006. It got down to 16 here back in like 2011(?) and all the fronds died. I was worried they didn't make it. Then they put on new growth in May. I didn't cover them.

But I have freeze cloth I put over them a few years ago when it was in the teens, but they wouldn't fit and wind kept blowing them off. Wasn't able to cover completely.

Wonder if I should try wrapping trunks and covering base with it(?).

Wrap and cover with some old blankets.

I have bunch of old garage towels. May get wet, but that damp may insulate it some(?). It'll be interesting how this plays out.

[bubba hotep]

Euro said we would get to low 40s by tomorrow morning, already there and 30s in the northern burbs.

Hi-res models are already trying to play catch up after being too warm at 18z for 00z. Looks like DFW will end up being cooler than most 21z SREF members by 06z. Shocking lol

[Haris]

Austin is stuck in mid 40s on the NAM and WRF both Tue and Wed

NWS forecasting 70 both days. LOL that's gonna bust

[HockeyTx82]

Euro said we would get to low 40s by tomorrow morning, already there and 30s in the northern burbs.

Hi-res models are already trying to play catch up after being too warm at 18z for 00z. Looks like DFW will end up being cooler than most 21z SREF members by 06z. Shocking lol

How much off are they? Are you thinking it's all stepping down from here? Warmest day was today?

[Ntxw]

Euro said we would get to low 40s by tomorrow morning, already there and 30s in the northern burbs.

Hi-res models are already trying to play catch up after being too warm at 18z for 00z. Looks like DFW will end up being cooler than most 21z SREF members by 06z. Shocking lol

How much off are they? Are you thinking it's all stepping down from here? Warmest day was today?

Depends on off by which solution you want to look at. Hi-res short term models catching up, Globals even more so. "Warmth" is done for. Oklahoma and NW Texas told the story today. Did OKC warm up to 40? no they fell through the 20s all day and are hovering 21F. There is now a risk of light icing event for parts of the area.

But most of us knew this would happen and when it was occurring upstream to our neighbor you just know this air mass is business.

GFS/Euro both had Oklahoma City hit 50 today in the weekend runs less than 72 hours out. Atrocious.

[orangeblood]

Hi-res models are already trying to play catch up after being too warm at 18z for 00z. Looks like DFW will end up being cooler than most 21z SREF members by 06z. Shocking lol

How much off are they? Are you thinking it's all stepping down from here? Warmest day was today?

Depends on off by which solution you want to look at. Hi-res short term models catching up, Globals even more so. "Warmth" is done for. Oklahoma and NW Texas told the story today. Did OKC warm up to 40? no they fell through the 20s all day and are hovering 21F. There is now a risk of light icing event for parts of the area.

But most of us knew this would happen and when it was occurring upstream to our neighbor you just know this air mass is business.

GFS/Euro both had Oklahoma City hit 50 today in the weekend runs less than 72 hours out.

And the other puzzling part about the NWS forecast....I wouldn’t consider this “light precip”, you have some pretty heavy solutions on these ensembles

[Ntxw]

How much off are they? Are you thinking it's all stepping down from here? Warmest day was today?

Depends on off by which solution you want to look at. Hi-res short term models catching up, Globals even more so. "Warmth" is done for. Oklahoma and NW Texas told the story today. Did OKC warm up to 40? no they fell through the 20s all day and are hovering 21F. There is now a risk of light icing event for parts of the area.

But most of us knew this would happen and when it was occurring upstream to our neighbor you just know this air mass is business.

GFS/Euro both had Oklahoma City hit 50 today in the weekend runs less than 72 hours out.

And the other puzzling part about the NWS forecast....I wouldn’t consider this “light precip”, you have some pretty heavy solutions on these ensembles

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KFWD/indiv_qpf_24/1612807200/1612807200-PHybZKOWDl8.png

RGEM and Canadian have been honking about it.

[bubba hotep]

How much off are they? Are you thinking it's all stepping down from here? Warmest day was today?

Depends on off by which solution you want to look at. Hi-res short term models catching up, Globals even more so. "Warmth" is done for. Oklahoma and NW Texas told the story today. Did OKC warm up to 40? no they fell through the 20s all day and are hovering 21F. There is now a risk of light icing event for parts of the area.

But most of us knew this would happen and when it was occurring upstream to our neighbor you just know this air mass is business.

GFS/Euro both had Oklahoma City hit 50 today in the weekend runs less than 72 hours out.

And the other puzzling part about the NWS forecast....I wouldn’t consider this “light precip”, you have some pretty heavy solutions on these ensembles

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KFWD/indiv_qpf_24/1612807200/1612807200-PHybZKOWDl8.png

That 18z run is pretty juiced up.

[HockeyTx82]

Depends on off by which solution you want to look at. Hi-res short term models catching up, Globals even more so. "Warmth" is done for. Oklahoma and NW Texas told the story today. Did OKC warm up to 40? no they fell through the 20s all day and are hovering 21F. There is now a risk of light icing event for parts of the area.

But most of us knew this would happen and when it was occurring upstream to our neighbor you just know this air mass is business.

GFS/Euro both had Oklahoma City hit 50 today in the weekend runs less than 72 hours out.

And the other puzzling part about the NWS forecast....I wouldn’t consider this “light precip”, you have some pretty heavy solutions on these ensembles

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KFWD/indiv_qpf_24/1612807200/1612807200-PHybZKOWDl8.png

That 18z run is pretty juiced up.

What are you seeing? Glad we made a Costco Run the other day.

[Ntxw]

0z ICON says we go below freezing Wednesday morning for good and never look back. There's QPF between between DFW and Austin oriented SW to NE with temps in the 20s Thursday.

[Haris]

ICON adamant with highs in upper 20s Thu. WOw

[orangeblood]

ICON seems to have the best handle on temps, also now picking up the disturbances coming through on Thursday/much higher QPF.
Awfully close to Ice Storm Warning criteria I believe

[Ntxw]

Saturday afternoon on the ICON. Texas is a fridge. HP dome is beginning to make entrance in the US via Canada and colder air starts filtering in.

[Texas Snow]

ICON seems to have the best handle on temps, also now picking up the disturbances coming through on Thursday/much higher QPF.
Awfully close to Ice Storm Warning criteria I believe

Are you basing “best handle” in relation to current observed temps, blend of others, or something else? And best handle near term or event-wide in your opinion (right now)?

Decided to “quit looking” for the night so just browsing on my phone...

[Haris]

Actually noticing ICON is 1-3 warmer than reality right now. Nothing big and handling the best but my point is that it could very well be that cold!

[Ntxw]

ICON Monday morning while a snow storm is taking shape.

[Rgv20]

Saturday afternoon on the ICON. Texas is a fridge. HP dome is beginning to make entrance in the US via Canada and colder air starts filtering in.

https://i.imgur.com/dL9xQfe.png

Crazy almost all of Texas below freezing and yet the true Arctic Air is still lagging behind...

[Ntxw]

Saturday afternoon on the ICON. Texas is a fridge. HP dome is beginning to make entrance in the US via Canada and colder air starts filtering in.

https://i.imgur.com/dL9xQfe.png

Crazy almost all of Texas below freezing and yet the true Arctic Air is still lagging behind...

Yeah it's the lore of old stuff like 1899 etc. When the cold ahead of the extreme is really cold. It's almost too good to be real...but how many more runs do we need of crazy temp maps?