Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Haris]

For any one out there including Ntxw, do you think there will be enough moisture at 15F to produce snow? Seems hard imo. Not sure

[Ntxw]

For any one out there including Ntxw, do you think there will be enough moisture at 15F to produce snow? Seems hard imo. Not sure

In a deep Arctic air mass, it doesn't take much at all. Any kind of lift in that kind of cold, even subtle is enough to do it. And you get very high ratios. No less the Pacific is giving us a major system.

[TheProfessor]

For any one out there including Ntxw, do you think there will be enough moisture at 15F to produce snow? Seems hard imo. Not sure

You don't need much moisture at that temperature. If you can get some good dynamics and some lift the atmosphere will squeeze it out. As long as the thermal profile isn't screwy, you can get 20-1 snow rations with a surface temp that cold.

[Texas Snow]

36 subscribers and 153 guests in case anyone is keeping track and we aren’t even close to the good stuff.

[Ntxw]

[Rgv20]

Saturday afternoon on the ICON. Texas is a fridge. HP dome is beginning to make entrance in the US via Canada and colder air starts filtering in.

https://i.imgur.com/dL9xQfe.png

Crazy almost all of Texas below freezing and yet the true Arctic Air is still lagging behind...

Yeah it's the lore of old stuff like 1899 etc. When the cold ahead of the extreme is really cold. It's almost too good to be real...but how many more runs do we need of crazy temp maps?

I don't want to jump on the bandwagon of the ICON and GFS just yet but boy they have been persistent... I would really start to worry if the Euro starts showing this crazy low temperatures.

[Ntxw]

RGEM on Thursday, has ICON like temps and precip. This means the Canadian is probably going to show an ice storm for parts of the Southern Plains.

[Texas Snowman]

Saturday afternoon on the ICON. Texas is a fridge. HP dome is beginning to make entrance in the US via Canada and colder air starts filtering in.

https://i.imgur.com/dL9xQfe.png

Crazy almost all of Texas below freezing and yet the true Arctic Air is still lagging behind...

Yeah it's the lore of old stuff like 1899 etc. When the cold ahead of the extreme is really cold. It's almost too good to be real...but how many more runs do we need of crazy temp maps?

Yup, this is trending towards 1899 stuff on some of these runs. Can you imagine how much fun this board would have been in 1899 and/or 1983?

[orangeblood]

As far as precip goes, GFS now going much higher QPf values Wed night/Thursday...1/4 to over 1/2 inch in spots. Could get ugly if temps are lower than expected

[Texas Snowman]

No, he is still here, trying to build a wall protecting Houston from the cold. If that does not work, he will grab some heaters to shoo away the PV next week.

He's been working hard on that wall, but run by run it is crumbling.


https://i.imgur.com/1klhHoH.gif

I was just about to mention that my US-Canada cold air wall has fallen. Cross-Polar flow has set up. I suspect that it won't get as cold as the GFS (10) or Canadian (7) here in Houston early next week, but Houston could see 2-3 days with highs below freezing. While models are trending colder with each run (Arctic air moving south vs. east), they won't have a handle on the frozen precip until maybe Wed-Thu. For Houston, I wouldn't expect anything but freezing rain and/or sleet. Arctic air may be too shallow for snow. Sub-freezing air may extend only up to 2000-3000 ft Sunday into Monday morning. However, if we (Houston) get any precip beyond Monday afternoon, then the warm nose (mid to upper 40s) aloft may disappear.

I think the GFS & Canadian are so cold due to the frozen precip they're predicting here.

Gotta run, my plane to Australia is here...

Models, schmodels. When Wxman57 throws in the towel, that’s all you need to know.

[Ntxw]

GFS is different from the other guidance in terms of an upper feature that brings snow/ice middle of weekend it's not as far south so we squeeze something out from it.

Our blizzard is coming into the West coast at the same time.

[orangeblood]

RGEM on Thursday, has ICON like temps and precip. This means the Canadian is probably going to show an ice storm for parts of the Southern Plains.

https://i.imgur.com/JtmUPDW.png

RGEM freezing rain totals, yikes!

[HockeyTx82]

Crazy almost all of Texas below freezing and yet the true Arctic Air is still lagging behind...

Yeah it's the lore of old stuff like 1899 etc. When the cold ahead of the extreme is really cold. It's almost too good to be real...but how many more runs do we need of crazy temp maps?

Yup, this is trending towards 1899 stuff on some of these runs. Can you imagine how much fun this board would have been in 1899 and/or 1983?

Sounds like we are about to find out.

[TheProfessor]

Cincinnati is having one of those storms they likely won't forget for awhile. They were originally under an advisory and had to be upgraded to a warning for 4" of snow. The thing is that they are already at 4" and the HRRR wants to drop another 5+. Kind of reminds me of our March 2015 storm. Anyways, forecasts busts like this do affect the weather downstream. It's something to keep an eye on.

[Haris]

GFS more realistic with the intensity. COuple degrees warmer

[Brent]

Imagine the ratios

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 going very conservative. Curious to see what they do going forward over the next day or two.

[Brent]

Fox 4 going very conservative. Curious to see what they do going forward over the next day or two.

Whoever was on Channel 8 in for Delkus just said no travel issues no big storm

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 going very conservative. Curious to see what they do going forward over the next day or two.

Whoever was on Channel 8 in for Delkus just said no travel issues no big storm

Maybe they forgot to hit refresh on the model websites?

[Cpv17]

GFS more realistic with the intensity. COuple degrees warmer

It’ll probably start warming up a degree or two with each run now but remember it’s warm bias.