Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3801 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:08 am

rwfromkansas wrote:31 here IMBY.

Mystified why the Euro puts DFW above freezing Saturday. Don’t see it after a few days anyway. The first round will be easier to push.

Also winter weather advisory just issued. Just north of DFW.


Euro doesn't even have freezing temps until Sunday. It's becoming apparent it is the model struggling the most in this case with the shallow air which is shocking to me given it is has one of the best resolutions of the OP guidance. I don't expect coarse globals to catch it we know the flaws for low ground cold but it shouldn't be the the worse of the bunch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3802 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:10 am

The freeze line is already east of DFW now and in Lindale I have dropped to 39. It'll be interesting if we warm above 40 today or tomorrow. DFW may well be stuck below freezing until late next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3803 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:15 am

Took the trash out just now. Car has coat of ice as the did trash bin.

And looks like Denton just got put under a Winter Weather Advisory. :cold:

From 7Am - 12 Noon today.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... CKLandMFSA
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3804 Postby opticsguy » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:16 am

Ice on my car in McKinney. About a 32nd of an inch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3805 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:17 am

When I got in the car for work this morning in Keller area, there was a thin sheet of ice on the car window at 31degrees. So there is some freezing drizzle/fog in the northern metro this morning.

Edit: posted right before advisory came out. I live about 3 miles from the Denton/Tarrant County line in Tarrant County.
Last edited by DFW Stormwatcher on Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3806 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:21 am

Seems to me the Euro has no idea what it’s doing right now. Looks to be performing the worst out of all models.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3807 Postby DonWrk » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:23 am

27 here in southern Grayson county this morning. Wasn't expecting that!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3808 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:24 am

Snow on the Ground in Town right now (My house only had a few flakes on the ground!), up to .25 inch in some spots (Also a good amount of wind too).

16°F right now, expected to get only up to 24°F.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3809 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:26 am

Remember, the models never handle the arrival of Arctic air correctly. It always gets colder faster than the models can handle. Don't assume that because a location is colder than a model predicted that the difference has any bearing on the eventual coldest temperature. I think the Euro is just not handling the cold air well at all. I'm expecting a day or two of continuous sub-freezng air in Houston from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning. The ICON cold air forecast may be like a Canadian hurricane forecast. I don't buy it.

I've always said that when I REALLY see cold air coming (and ice) that I would let you know. I see it...

Beautiful sunset on the crocodile-free beach in Darwin earlier this evening. It's 11:20pm now. High was in the upper 80s. May spend the day on the beach tomorrow, enjoying the warm sun and sound of the waves crashing. My shoulder is doing much better. No pain pills for over 36 hrs. Doctor says I can do whatever I can handle. Beach volleyball sounds fun.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3810 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:29 am

Only 1 6z GEFS Ensemble Member does not want snow close to Central Oklahoma! :eek:

Image

Mean Snowfall totals are 2-4 inches in DFW & 7-9 inches in Central Oklahoma

The only Members that are NOT my Personal Favorites are 3, 12, 14 & 20.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3811 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:29 am

Iceresistance wrote:Snow on the Ground in Town right now (My house only had a few flakes on the ground!), up to .25 inch in some spots (Also a good amount of wind too).

16°F right now, expected to get only up to 24°F.


So you're in eastern suburbs of Oklahoma City, for some reason I was thinking Tecumseh was in the Tulsa area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3812 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:32 am

wxman57 wrote:Remember, the models never handle the arrival of Arctic air correctly. It always gets colder faster than the models can handle. Don't assume that because a location is colder than a model predicted that the difference has any bearing on the eventual coldest temperature. I think the Euro is just not handling the cold air well at all. I'm expecting a day or two of continuous sub-freezng air in Houston from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning. The ICON cold air forecast may be like a Canadian hurricane forecast. I don't buy it.

I've always said that when I REALLY see cold air coming (and ice) that I would let you know. I see it...

Beautiful sunset on the crocodile-free beach in Darwin earlier this evening. It's 11:20pm now. High was in the upper 80s. May spend the day on the beach tomorrow, enjoying the warm sun and sound of the waves crashing. My shoulder is doing much better. No pain pills for over 36 hrs. Doctor says I can do whatever I can handle. Beach volleyball sounds fun.

http://wxman57.com/images/Darwin.jpg


Our posts to you are often in jest. But on a serious note we appreciate you for sharing with us your insights. So many of our board members take notice when you post warnings, rightfully so!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3813 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:34 am

DFW Stormwatcher wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Snow on the Ground in Town right now (My house only had a few flakes on the ground!), up to .25 inch in some spots (Also a good amount of wind too).

16°F right now, expected to get only up to 24°F.


So you're in eastern suburbs of Oklahoma City, for some reason I was thinking Tecumseh was in the Tulsa area.

Tecumseh is east of Norman on OK-9, my home is around 4 miles west of town. (No, I'm not telling you exactly where!)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3814 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:35 am

Forecasts are about to be chaotic over the next week. Mets cant step out of their boundaries to 'scare' the public, but they have to also go with their gut. Interesting next few days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3815 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:36 am

Iceresistance wrote:
DFW Stormwatcher wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Snow on the Ground in Town right now (My house only had a few flakes on the ground!), up to .25 inch in some spots (Also a good amount of wind too).

16°F right now, expected to get only up to 24°F.


So you're in eastern suburbs of Oklahoma City, for some reason I was thinking Tecumseh was in the Tulsa area.

Tecumseh is east of Norman on OK-9, my home is around 4 miles west of town. (No, I'm not telling you exactly where!)


Wherever it is east of the OKC keep posting! We welcome and value our friends from Oklahoma even here in the Texas thread. Often you guys foreshadow what we can look forward to seeing when these cold blasts come from the North.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3816 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:42 am

These temp bust are critical for me as my aunt's funeral is tomorrow afternoon in McKinney. I will be advising my family on if travel will be possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3817 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:46 am

Left my truck out of the garage last night and it's iced over here in Arlington South of 20. I checked it around 6:30 this morning and it was still wet, so the temperature is falling.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3818 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:50 am

Remember when the models actually had this cold blast coming on Tuesday and they kept pushing it back? Well it’s Tuesday and look what’s happening...
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3819 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:55 am

Iceresistance wrote:
DFW Stormwatcher wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Snow on the Ground in Town right now (My house only had a few flakes on the ground!), up to .25 inch in some spots (Also a good amount of wind too).

16°F right now, expected to get only up to 24°F.


So you're in eastern suburbs of Oklahoma City, for some reason I was thinking Tecumseh was in the Tulsa area.

Tecumseh is east of Norman on OK-9, my home is around 4 miles west of town. (No, I'm not telling you exactly where!)


HaHa! You shouldn't tell me exactly where:) Temp down to 29 degrees at my house in Alliance area, I live in a Keller zip code in the city of Fort Worth so the area is known more as Keller. I'll just start saying I live in the Alliance area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3820 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:55 am

Ntxw wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Remember, the models never handle the arrival of Arctic air correctly. It always gets colder faster than the models can handle. Don't assume that because a location is colder than a model predicted that the difference has any bearing on the eventual coldest temperature. I think the Euro is just not handling the cold air well at all. I'm expecting a day or two of continuous sub-freezng air in Houston from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning. The ICON cold air forecast may be like a Canadian hurricane forecast. I don't buy it.

I've always said that when I REALLY see cold air coming (and ice) that I would let you know. I see it...

Beautiful sunset on the crocodile-free beach in Darwin earlier this evening. It's 11:20pm now. High was in the upper 80s. May spend the day on the beach tomorrow, enjoying the warm sun and sound of the waves crashing. My shoulder is doing much better. No pain pills for over 36 hrs. Doctor says I can do whatever I can handle. Beach volleyball sounds fun.

http://wxman57.com/images/Darwin.jpg


Our posts to you are often in jest. But on a serious note we appreciate you for sharing with us your insights. So many of our board members take notice when you post warnings, rightfully so!


Thanks. When I leave the country for Australia - be warned.
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