Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

Another piece is as precip ramps up will it bring some warmer air down from above? The sub-freezing air is close to the ground and shallow, if it holds firm then there is potential for an impactful icing event.

When would be the potential impactful icing event? I'm at work in Plano near Coit/West Plano Pkwy and it's 30 degrees here. And a WWA. If it might get worse later today then I'll want to plan to leave early and finish the day from home. For us Cajuns, ice is something we put in our drinks and freeze into daiquiri's and snoballs(snow cones/shaved ice for everyone else).

Mostly just drizzle today. Heavier qpf is likely to move in later tonight into tomorrow morning is when the issues may start. Temperatures are critical when this happens.

[wxman57]

This is just the first push of modified Arctic air. The real cold air arrives Sunday afternoon/evening. Coldest will be Mon-Tue.

Why'd you kill the snow/sleet for the Houston area? I see the models have backed off of it, where it was previously showing a Monday night flurry possibility. You're not supposed to do that if you're in Australia.

Sorry, I'll turn it back on in a day or two. I can control it with my phone.

[rwfromkansas]

Temp starting to go up at my backyard station. I think we hit 35-39 or so in DFW.

Edit: That was premature. Dropped back down almost to 30 again. 31.1.

[weatherdude1108]

It was supposed to be in the upper 60s today for a high. Woke up to 53. It is now 47 at 8:30am.

Me thinkey bust. Models and Arctic air masses don't mix.

[SoupBone]

This is just the first push of modified Arctic air. The real cold air arrives Sunday afternoon/evening. Coldest will be Mon-Tue.

Why'd you kill the snow/sleet for the Houston area? I see the models have backed off of it, where it was previously showing a Monday night flurry possibility. You're not supposed to do that if you're in Australia.

Sorry, I'll turn it back on in a day or two. I can control it with my phone.

BTW, I plan on cycling as many miles as I can on the coldest morning just to do it. I don't know how many miles I'll get, the coldest I've ever cycled yet is 45 degrees.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville morning discussion...Dusting off the Winter Weather Advisories if needed


LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): This portion of the
forecast continues to be REALLY interesting. The passage of a cold
front is still anticipated for Thursday. A decent shot of liquid
precipitation will accompany the frontal passage. Afterwards, and
aided by the passage of yet another cold front on Saturday, a
steady decline of daytime high and overnight low temperatures will
occur through the end of the period. Temperatures may reach the
freezing mark, and a few degrees below, during the overnight hours
of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. With precipitation forecast
during those times, the precipitation may be in solid form,
especially as freezing rain. Wind chill and freeze products (Wind
Chill Advisory, Wind Chill Warning, Freeze Warning, Hard Freeze
Warning) may also be needed. Stay tuned to this developing
weather situation, and expect refinement of exact product
necessity as the weekend draws closer.

[TropicalTundra]

News channels are rising the possibility of some snow on Monday. They went from 30% to 45%. Not much but now we almost have a 50/50 chance of snow or not.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, I think we will hit 200 pages today. Wow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For SE Tx folks:
It seems the coldest push of air will be on Sunday, when a lobe of the PV phases with the northern stream, it slings the HP down the Plains. This push of cold air bring the temps into frozen precip territory. Mon/Tuesday looks key for some funk to come to town.

I'll have some fun, I think Sugar Land will reach 16 degrees. DFW will be 5. Let's see.

As a wealth manager, I'm buying nat gas this morning since it really isn't moving much. Most traders use the Euro as their barometer on energy usage.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3K NAM is close to a major ice event for DFW with 0.25 - 0.75" qpf across the area. This run bounces the freezing line around, so it's tricky.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM initialized a few degrees too warm in dfw, but shows meager warming of a degree or two during the day. If that trend applies to what temps actually are, we may struggle to get above freezing. On to what the other models show...

[tolakram]

Finally we have more snow than TX. 9.8 inches after a forecast of 1 to 3 inches.

[bubba hotep]

12z NAM initialized a few degrees too warm in dfw, but shows meager warming of a degree or two during the day. If that trend applies to what temps actually are, we may struggle to get above freezing. On to what the other models show...

FWD just lowered point forecast highs dropping MBY forecast high down from 39 to 35F.

[Quixotic]

Freezing line continues to slowly slosh through DFW. When does the retreat start? Or does it hold strong? Given the extremely shallow nature of the cold, any breaks in the clouds would probably be enough to start some modification.

https://i.ibb.co/PZ6wXRm/IMG-20210209-081004.jpg

You made this morning’s call first. Congrats.

[Ntxw]

Finally we have more snow than TX. 9.8 inches after a forecast of 1 to 3 inches.

Congrats on the surprise bust! TheProfessor was posting last night about the Cincy area overperforming.

[Haris]

48 and dropping at casa.

May not ever reach 50 again for the foreseeable future

[Iceresistance]

Light Snow outside right now in Tecumseh, 16°F right now with a wind chill of 4°F.

[funster]

12z 3K NAM is close to a major ice event for DFW with 0.25 - 0.75" qpf across the area. This run bounces the freezing line around, so it's tricky.

It's a bit alarming to have a freezing rain threat already. Prefer to enjoy the tiny ice age event from a heated room.

[rwfromkansas]

MBY temp has actually dropped to the lowest it's been, 30.8. It got down to 30.9 earlier, so the cold is definitely trying to fight the day.

[gpsnowman]

A thin layer of ice has formed on cars and outdoor objects outside my work. East Fort Worth area near the big airport.