Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

MBY temp has actually dropped to the lowest it's been, 30.8. It got down to 30.9 earlier, so the cold is definitely trying to fight the day.

Have a hard time believing temps will rise much at all....with this cloud deck and cold air advection continuing, the models are are almost useless. The only small warm up I might give credence to is on Friday before the Grand Daddy Arctic front arrives on Saturday....winds might shift around to the east, cold advection dies down and at that point could see a decent rise before the big plunge!!

[TropicalTundra]

48 and dropping at casa.

May not ever reach 50 again for the foreseeable future

Did the cold just get there? The cold got here last night and now it's slowly warming up.

[bubba hotep]

12z hi-res models pretty confident in a warm up today for DFW. RGEM - near 50, NAM 3k - low 40s, HRRR - slightly cooler than NAM. Was supposed to happen in OK yesterday but never did.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 Weather Forecast at 9:20 AM in OKC . . .

[HockeyTx82]

12z hi-res models pretty confident in a warm up today for DFW. RGEM - near 50, NAM 3k - low 40s, HRRR - slightly cooler than NAM. Was supposed to happen in OK yesterday but never did.

Are you thinking not happening?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

My favorite historical analysis site is no longer working I asked before but never found anything promising. Do you guys have another site that can provide 500 mb, 850 mb, sfc, and 250 mb analysis? So mad when these sites suddenly stop working. Thanks!

[Portastorm]

It was supposed to be in the upper 60s today for a high. Woke up to 53. It is now 47 at 8:30am.

Me thinkey bust. Models and Arctic air masses don't mix.

I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at ... but NWS last night said a high of 60 today and then early this morning they lowered today's highs in the mid 50s. Technically their forecast is accurate as the high for today likely occurred just after midnight when temps were in the low 60s.

[Ntxw]

12z hi-res models pretty confident in a warm up today for DFW. RGEM - near 50, NAM 3k - low 40s, HRRR - slightly cooler than NAM. Was supposed to happen in OK yesterday but never did.

We do have some warm air lifting above the cold from the system in the southwest (incoming precip) compared to OKC yesterday where they were just CAA the whole way. But if the CAA continues then warming may be muted. What's happening above vs below is just not making life easy for these models.

[Ntxw]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

My favorite historical analysis site is no longer working I asked before but never found anything promising. Do you guys have another site that can provide 500 mb, 850 mb, sfc, and 250 mb analysis? So mad when these sites suddenly stop working. Thanks!

Try this as the HPC is now the WPC.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

[wxman57]

BTW, I plan on cycling as many miles as I can on the coldest morning just to do it. I don't know how many miles I'll get, the coldest I've ever cycled yet is 45 degrees.

Go for it. In 1991 I rode 100 miles, starting at 7am. It was 29 at the start and in the mid 30s when I finished. Don't over-dress if you're riding fast (as I did in 1991). Better not to sweat. You won't see me out there with temps below 60 now, unless it's very sunny and there's no wind.

Looks like the front is pulling up stationary NW of Houston, as expected. The leading edge of the cold air down south is only a bit over 1000 ft deep.

[wxman57]

It was supposed to be in the upper 60s today for a high. Woke up to 53. It is now 47 at 8:30am.

Me thinkey bust. Models and Arctic air masses don't mix.

I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at ... but NWS last night said a high of 60 today and then early this morning they lowered today's highs in the mid 50s. Technically their forecast is accurate as the high for today likely occurred just after midnight when temps were in the low 60s.

Not just "technically", when forecasting high & low temps, we consider midnight to midnight. We're not just forecasting the temperature in mid-afternoon. Back to bed now, it's early Wednesday morning here.

[Ntxw]

It was supposed to be in the upper 60s today for a high. Woke up to 53. It is now 47 at 8:30am.

Me thinkey bust. Models and Arctic air masses don't mix.

I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at ... but NWS last night said a high of 60 today and then early this morning they lowered today's highs in the mid 50s. Technically their forecast is accurate as the high for today likely occurred just after midnight when temps were in the low 60s.

Not just "technically", when forecasting high & low temps, we consider midnight to midnight. We're not just forecasting the temperature in mid-afternoon. Back to bed now, it's early Wednesday morning here.

I'll play a little devil's advocate here while true, they have also put forecasts "rising to 45 by x time" or "falling to 47 by x time". That would cover that kind of confusion. Sometimes they just miss the ball when the forecast is off-track a little.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON trending warmer, but also a major snowstorm across the Northern Half of Texas & all of Oklahoma.

[Haris]

ICON much warmer but still frigid for the weekend with temps in the upper 20s. Looks like GFS is an outlier a bit

[Ntxw]

12z ICON trending warmer, but also a major snowstorm across the Northern Half of Texas & all of Oklahoma.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

The snow storm plays a role. Where it tracks it gets severely cold after with single digits for North Texas and northern Central Texas. This is another thing we have to watch, these systems can tinker with temps.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS trending colder again & Storm #1 has also trended MUCH farther South than 6z

[orangeblood]

12z ICON trending warmer, but also a major snowstorm across the Northern Half of Texas & all of Oklahoma.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

The snow storm plays a role. Where it tracks it gets severely cold after with single digits for North Texas and northern Central Texas. This is another thing we have to watch, these systems can tinker with temps.

Yep, the cold is coming but could vary 10 plus deg F depending on trajectory of PV as it swings through and any frozen precip that does or doesn't fall!! Still way too early to pin down details, just know that the coldest air in 5 years and maybe upwards of a 1/4 Century could be coming our way

[Rgv20]

12zICON much warmer for South Texas...Sunday has low 40s to upper 30s and Monday highs in the mid 50s. Big winners are in North Texas tho with some heavy snow.

[WacoWx]

I know its only 10a, but I have dropped from 32.7 at 7a to 31.7 currently in Dallas.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS trending colder again & Storm #1 has also trended MUCH farther South than 6z

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_16.png

It's the one model that is trying to snow on Saturday along with the deeper Arctic surge/shortwave. The other models have the disturbance but is dry except for ICON squeezing out a line.