Texas Winter 2020-2021

[SoupBone]

The ICON has "rain" in the 20s which means that it is either ice or a mix (since it doesn't show anything other than rain and snow).

We don't want any damn ice in Houston, it better either snow or bust.

[Ntxw]

Hey maybe another snow storm for Texas and Oklahoma next Thursday? But that's way out there for now.

[gpsnowman]

Regardless of what actually occurs, from a model analysis perspective seeing the latest GFS Op forecast 4 separate winter weather events for Texas inside a 9 day period is something to behold!!

It also snows anywhere from the low teens to low 20s, another thing we don't see around here often.

Instant accumulations. Not one flake lost from melting on contact. You love to see it!!!

[HockeyTx82]

Regardless of what actually occurs, from a model analysis perspective seeing the latest GFS Op forecast 4 separate winter weather events for Texas inside a 9 day period is something to behold!!

It also snows anywhere from the low teens to low 20s, another thing we don't see around here often.

Instant accumulations. Not one flake lost from melting on contact. You love to see it!!!

I remember that in 2011 in Denton. It was later in the week after the first dump of sleet and snow. That was the purest powder I've ever seen in my life. I might have a video somewhere of it.

[Ntxw]

12Z ICON is warmer than 00Z. From the 00 run with 13F in Houston Tuesday, it's up to 24F. Only a light freeze on Monday. It was way too extreme before. Maybe it's coming to its senses.

Sir the ICON was yesterday's news. Today GFS and Canadian are IN .

Real note though we'll know the magnitude of temps by late this week. It's going to be convergence of the guidance to a middle ground blend.

[Iceresistance]

Almost all 12z GEFS Ensembles has a MAJOR snowstorm in the Southern Plains at Hour 144!

[cheezyWXguy]

Almost all 12z GEFS Ensembles has a MAJOR snowstorm in the Southern Plains at Hour 144!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_ptypens_144d2cc2baaac774ca0.png

Man, what’s the accumulation map on ensemble 14?

[Texas Snowman]

It's the one model that is trying to snow on Saturday along with the deeper Arctic surge/shortwave. The other models have the disturbance but is dry except for ICON squeezing out a line.

This is going to be a tough forecast . . .

(Also noticed that the Strength of the other storms are dependent on the First Storm on the Models, very hard to forecast with this!)

We could be dealing with 4 shortwaves between today and middle of next week. I mean lets go for 1978!

That might propel February 2021 into the hushed tones category reserved for 1899, 1978, 1983, 1989, and 2011.

[bubba hotep]

For the Saturday disturbance, the 12z GFS brings it out across Texas setting off widespread winter wx. The 00z Euro is slower with it and drops it down in Mexico. That will be something to watch on the 12z Euro.

[Iceresistance]

Almost all 12z GEFS Ensembles has a MAJOR snowstorm in the Southern Plains at Hour 144!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_ptypens_144d2cc2baaac774ca0.png

Man, what’s the accumulation map on ensemble 14?

Up to 2 feet in Texarkana!

[rwfromkansas]

Man, that is juiced up. May it be.

I will honestly take an inch of dry powder that will not melt instantly, which would happen in this situation. But, if we could get a real storm and then be cold for a few days to minimize melting, that would make up for all years of nothing.

[HockeyTx82]

If we end up just getting cold and no snow, ice, sleet and or snow days for school out of this I'm off the board for good. This is not good for my health.

Not blaming you all, just this is looking too good to be true.

[Ntxw]

For the Saturday disturbance, the 12z GFS brings it out across Texas setting off widespread winter wx. The 00z Euro is slower with it and drops it down in Mexico. That will be something to watch on the 12z Euro.

This was the discussion we had a few days ago. The first question is would the cold come. We've answered that mostly (how low can it go? singles?) and then we would try to resolve the shortwaves and snow potential. At first it was chances within the ripples but we are trending to more and more sig systems involved and that we may not see it until closer to the events.

[South Texas Storms]

For the Saturday disturbance, the 12z GFS brings it out across Texas setting off widespread winter wx. The 00z Euro is slower with it and drops it down in Mexico. That will be something to watch on the 12z Euro.

This was the discussion we had a few days ago. The first question is would the cold come. We've answered that mostly (how low can it go? singles?) and then we would try to resolve the shortwaves and snow potential. At first it was chances within the ripples but we are trending to more and more sig systems involved and that we may not see it until closer to the events.

Yep it continues to look likely that potentially a large part of the state will see some type of frozen precipitation over the next week. Several chances with a series of disturbances forecast to move through with cold air in place. UKMET coming in now is setting up a big winter storm at the end of the run early next week.

[bubba hotep]

12z hi-res models are going to bust by 5-7F for portions of N. TX for the 17z readings. Now to see what that does to the 18z runs.

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET with a very nice set up on the 500mb chart for folks in Central and North Texas.....Winter Wonderland

[orangeblood]

12z GEFS coming in much more aggressive with Sunday night/Monday system compared to 6Z

24 hr QPF 6Z


24 hr QPF 12Z

[Iceresistance]

Snowing outside again, 17°F.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z hi-res models are going to bust by 5-7F for portions of N. TX for the 17z readings. Now to see what that does to the 18z runs.

It’s interesting to watch the HRRR run hourly and still have to play catch up. Coming in colder for tomorrow morning before the onset of precip

[Yukon Cornelius]

Snowing pretty decent now in WF.