Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

Strange oddball going on in Alva, OK according to NWS-Norman.

Temperature of 12°F

North winds of 28, gusting to 53, making the Wind Chill of -7°F

[rwfromkansas]

If we end up just getting cold and no snow, ice, sleet and or snow days for school out of this I'm off the board for good. This is not good for my health.

Not blaming you all, just this is looking too good to be true.

Sometimes a break is needed. I had not posted for a long time frankly because of that reason. I apparently joined in 2005 but then left for awhile. Back then I actually lived in Kansas. Lol. I also joined another forum way back when in high school, but there are virtually no posts on Texas there. The back and forth stress gets to me as well. There's a reason I don't like watching soap operas. This winter is starting to bring back some of the joy of following winter weather, even if we get missed. But, if we get missed to the south again, I'm done for awhile probably. Until more reliable severe weather season. Lol.

I am loving the enthusiasm of Iceresistance. Reminds me of how I was in high school.

I already told my students in Keller ISD to please be careful if it gets icy. Don't want to play it up too much, but I had a really bad accident in Midland when I lived out there. There was not a drop of snow or even a hint of ice until I hit one off-ramp off I-20. It was the weirdest thing. That one off-ramp was just ice and snow-covered. I slid off that thing with no ability to stop and slammed into a car below that also slid off.

[Ntxw]

Snowing pretty decent now in WF.

These snow reports from various places is definitely so odd! But like we said in an Arctic air mass it can snow with very little lift. DGZ must be close to the ground. 850mb freezing temps is way to the north in Central Oklahoma and Childress area.

[HockeyTx82]

Snowing pretty decent now in WF.

These snow reports from various places is definitely so odd! But like we said in an Arctic air mass it can snow with very little lift. DGZ must be close to the ground. 850mb freezing temps is way to the north in Central Oklahoma and Childress area.

Is is showing on radar?

[Ntxw]

Snowing pretty decent now in WF.

These snow reports from various places is definitely so odd! But like we said in an Arctic air mass it can snow with very little lift. DGZ must be close to the ground. 850mb freezing temps is way to the north in Central Oklahoma and Childress area.

Is is showing on radar?

Nada. Snow production must be near the surface like freezing fog.

[Cerlin]

Light flakes in norman, almost no radar returns.

[Iceresistance]

If we end up just getting cold and no snow, ice, sleet and or snow days for school out of this I'm off the board for good. This is not good for my health.

Not blaming you all, just this is looking too good to be true.

Sometimes a break is needed. I had not posted for a long time frankly because of that reason. I apparently joined in 2005 but then left for awhile. Back then I actually lived in Kansas. Lol. I also joined another forum way back when in high school, but there are virtually no posts on Texas there. The back and forth stress gets to me as well. There's a reason I don't like watching soap operas. This winter is starting to bring back some of the joy of following winter weather, even if we get missed. But, if we get missed to the south again, I'm done for awhile probably. Until more reliable severe weather season. Lol.

I am loving the enthusiasm of Iceresistance. Reminds me of how I was in high school.

I already told my students in Keller ISD to please be careful if it gets icy. Don't want to play it up too much, but I had a really bad accident in Midland when I lived out there. There was not a drop of snow or even a hint of ice until I hit one off-ramp off I-20. It was the weirdest thing. That one off-ramp was just ice and snow-covered. I slid off that thing with no ability to stop and slammed into a car below that also slid off.

29-Car Pileup on I-40 WB Onramp from Agnew Ave from Black Ice Yesterday did not look real (No, I was in School when it happened), it did not looks like there was Ice there at all, be VERY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES WHEN IT'S BELOW FREEZING & MISTING!

[funster]

Funnyish fading frizzle animation from NWS Fort Worth. Temps not really budging yet.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1359173690747981824

[rwfromkansas]

I love having a weather station in my backyard since I can check it anywhere. It's up to 32.4, so slowly climbing, but VERY slowly. It stalls a lot. I think it's still likely we will get above freezing, but above 35 is...iffy. That will help push temps colder tonight if there's enough CAA.

[vbhoutex]

This is SE TX centric from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control:

Prolonged cold air event increasingly likely for much of TX late this weekend into early next week.

Some winter precipitation will be possible in the post frontal cold air mass this weekend into early next week.

1064mb arctic high pressure cells has formed over the northern slopes of Alaska and is ridging southward along the front range of the Canadian Rockies into Montana where 1052mb surface pressures are found. The arctic boundary has spread deep into TX overnight with temperatures of 23 at Wichita Falls and near freezing at Dallas. Boundary has continued to slide southward under the cold and dense air mass against model projections that stalled it over N TX. Boundary will clear N TX this morning and slowly move over at least the NW portions of our area today. Expect a strong temperature gradient to develop along the front as a very warm air mass south of the boundary warms into the 70’s and temperature behind the boundary fall into the 40’s and 50’s. Some of the high resolution guidance show the front moving as far south and east as the US 59 corridor by this evening. Front will likely stall somewhere in the HWY 105 to US 59 corridor today with cold air filtering into the north of the front and warmth to its south. Boundary will remain stalled over the area on Wednesday and with increasing moisture and disturbances approaching from the SW/WSW rain chances will be increasing Wednesday into Thursday.

Thursday:

Arctic boundary will begin to move southward and off the upper TX coast and this will bring all of SE TX into the post frontal cold air mass. Expect temperatures to fall during the day from morning highs in the 50’s and 60’s into the 40’s by early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue before ending in the evening hours.

Friday:

Generally a cold, but dry post frontal regime will be in place with lows in the 30’s and highs struggling to reach the mid to upper 40’s under cold air advection.

Weekend:

Another surge of arctic air arrives on Saturday and this surge will likely be very cold. Temperatures may fall into the 30’s during the day on Saturday and then below freezing Saturday night over much of the area. Clouds will be increasing Saturday night into Sunday as a disturbance approaches from the W and a coastal low begins to form over the NW Gulf. Cold air will be firmly locked in across the region by this point and precipitation may develop across the region Sunday into Monday. Height cross sections support the potential for freezing rain and sleet given the shallow depth of the cold air mass with warm air “overrunning” the surface cold pool aloft. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday may struggle to reach the mid 30’s for highs given clouds and cold air advection and it is possible some areas may remain below freezing from Saturday night through Tuesday morning, especially north and west of Houston.

Uncertainty:

How low overnight lows go along with the duration of any freezing temperatures remain uncertain. While the threat for winter precipitation is showing a signal in the guidance, it is unclear when, how much, and to some degree what kind of precipitation may fall (generally leaning toward freezing rain and sleet vs. snow) as well as the amount of moisture that will be available.

Preparations:

Residents should be aware of the potential for prolonged cold including the threat for extended freezing temperatures and have cold weather measures ready…including plants, pets/livestock, pipes, and people. Generally for most cold air events in SE TX we do not have to worry about pipes, but this could be an event that pipes (especially any outside exposed pipes will need protection). Monitor trusted weather sources frequently and avoid basing decisions on individual operational model runs that are showing wild variability currently.

[HockeyTx82]

I love having a weather station in my backyard since I can check it anywhere. It's up to 32.4, so slowly climbing, but VERY slowly. It stalls a lot. I think it's still likely we will get above freezing, but above 35 is...iffy. That will help push temps colder tonight if there's enough CAA.

You are above freezing. 32.0 is freezing

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS Model showing 3 Snowstorms across the Southern Plains



24-hour Kuchera Ratio

[rwfromkansas]

I love having a weather station in my backyard since I can check it anywhere. It's up to 32.4, so slowly climbing, but VERY slowly. It stalls a lot. I think it's still likely we will get above freezing, but above 35 is...iffy. That will help push temps colder tonight if there's enough CAA.

You are above freezing. 32.0 is freezing

Lol. Good point.

[Iceresistance]

AO is now at -4.5, and still dropping. (Acutal Observation is at the very top.)

[Cpv17]

I love having a weather station in my backyard since I can check it anywhere. It's up to 32.4, so slowly climbing, but VERY slowly. It stalls a lot. I think it's still likely we will get above freezing, but above 35 is...iffy. That will help push temps colder tonight if there's enough CAA.

You are above freezing. 32.0 is freezing

32.4 is still 32 degrees. 31.5 is the same thing as 32.4. It’s rounded to 32.

[AubreyStorm]

Let’s go snow ❄️

[HockeyTx82]

I love having a weather station in my backyard since I can check it anywhere. It's up to 32.4, so slowly climbing, but VERY slowly. It stalls a lot. I think it's still likely we will get above freezing, but above 35 is...iffy. That will help push temps colder tonight if there's enough CAA.

You are above freezing. 32.0 is freezing

32.4 is still 32 degrees. 31.5 is the same thing as 32.4. It’s rounded to 32.

But when talking the freezing point of water 32.0 is when it freezes, right? Water would not freeze at 32.4. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[Ntxw]

You are above freezing. 32.0 is freezing

32.4 is still 32 degrees. 31.5 is the same thing as 32.4. It’s rounded to 32.

But when talking the freezing point of water 32.0 is when it freezes, right? Water would not freeze at 32.4. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

It gets really complicated but for the sake of record keeping, it's simply rounded is what Cpv was getting at. Log as 32F or freezing, but that's a simple take. It can freeze at 32 and melt at 32. Depending on what state the "water" is in solid or liquid.

[txtwister78]

Not that it really matters at this point, but I don't think I've ever seen the Euro this bad. Just absolute worthless and pointless at this point for any met to be relying on this model in the short term in my opinion.

[HockeyTx82]

32.4 is still 32 degrees. 31.5 is the same thing as 32.4. It’s rounded to 32.

But when talking the freezing point of water 32.0 is when it freezes, right? Water would not freeze at 32.4. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

It gets really complicated but for the sake of record keeping, it's simply rounded is what Cpv was getting at. Log as 32F or freezing, but that's a simple take. It can freeze at 32 and melt at 32. Depending on what state the "water" is in solid or liquid.

I was just messing around on my first post and went full on nerd.