Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Haris]

Euro is like 20F warmer for the weekend compared to the rest of guidance , lol. Highs near 50

[Iceresistance]

Euro is like 20F warmer for the weekend compared to the rest of guidance , lol. Highs near 50

Heat Miser (Wxman57) is trying to keep control of the Euro for as long as possible . . .

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1216 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

Cold and cloudy conditions continue across North and Central Texas
today in the wake of a strong cold front that moved through
overnight. Forecast models have struggled immensely with the
temperatures. It looks like much of North Texas will remain in the
30s for the rest of the day, which is on the cold end of the
entire guidance envelope.

For tonight, isentropic ascent will increase across the region
within a region of strong low-level frontogenesis. This type of
setup would tend to support drizzle over heavier precipitation as
mid and upper-level ascent will be a bit more limited. Forecast
soundings show dry air above the frontal inversion, including
within the dendritic growth zone, but very saturated profiles
beneath the inversion. This means supercooled rain droplets will
be the predominant hydrometeor type, leading to drizzle and
perhaps light rain at the surface (with ice accumulation
occurring wherever temperatures fall below freezing). Forecast
models keep the QPF on the lighter side, but HREF guidance
suggests that freezing rain accumulations of up to one-tenth of an
inch may not be out of the question north and northwest of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area. For this reason, another
Winter Weather Advisory will likely be needed this evening,
starting at 04Z (10 p.m. CST) and running through at least 18Z
(noon CST) Wednesday.

There is some question about how long into Wednesday precipitation
may last. Right now, it looks like precipitation may wane a bit
during the afternoon hours with temperatures warming to near or
just above freezing, but it should be stressed that this is highly
uncertain at this time and that the Winter Weather Advisory could
need to be extended beyond 18Z. Heavier and more widespread
precipitation may be on tap just beyond the short-term forecast
period as a more pronounced upper-level shortwave trough
approaches from the west.

[txtwister78]

Lol! Not too big of a difference.

]

[Ntxw]

Not that it really matters at this point, but I don't think I've ever seen the Euro this bad. Just absolute worthless and pointless at this point for any met to be relying on this model in the short term in my opinion.

I've side brushed its temp forecast. We're better off using short range guidance anyway and looking at ground truth.

That said, snow storm on the Euro for much of the state P-Day!

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Ensembles have just finished, ALL of the Ensembles are calling for snow in Central Oklahoma



Only Members 3 & 4 did not have very much over me. (Member #8 has a very strange snow hole over me as well)

Mean Snowfall is 4-6 inches in DFW & 8-10 inches in Central Oklahoma

[captainbarbossa19]

Lol! Not too big of a difference.

]https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1612872000/1613325600-flGnhxMY1gI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1612872000/1613325600-U36Fa2RkpII.png

Considering how cold it has been in many areas so far, I am beginning to think that it will be colder this weekend. That's really cold when it's around freezing at noon in Southeast Texas. January 2018 featured one day at my location with a high of 33. I really do not see why this could not happen again. We have temperatures like this usually at least once every 2-5 years.

[txtwister78]

Not that it really matters at this point, but I don't think I've ever seen the Euro this bad. Just absolute worthless and pointless at this point for any met to be relying on this model in the short term in my opinion.

I've side brushed its temp forecast. We're better off using short range guidance anyway and looking at ground truth.

That said, snow storm on the Euro for much of the state P-Day!

Oh yeah completely agree, however many mets/offices still rely on it and so just shocked by it's poor initialization and performance in the short term.

[gpsnowman]

Not that it really matters at this point, but I don't think I've ever seen the Euro this bad. Just absolute worthless and pointless at this point for any met to be relying on this model in the short term in my opinion.

I've side brushed its temp forecast. We're better off using short range guidance anyway and looking at ground truth.

That said, snow storm on the Euro for much of the state P-Day!

Depending on my daughter's school situation, I could be off that day. Hmmmm.

[Ntxw]

Not that it really matters at this point, but I don't think I've ever seen the Euro this bad. Just absolute worthless and pointless at this point for any met to be relying on this model in the short term in my opinion.

I've side brushed its temp forecast. We're better off using short range guidance anyway and looking at ground truth.

That said, snow storm on the Euro for much of the state P-Day!

Depending on my daughter's school situation, I could be off that day. Hmmmm.

The models have been ramping up this system and if it goes negative, could be something special starting Sunday evening.

[Iceresistance]

How is the 12z CMC Ensembles looking?

[rwfromkansas]

I am glad Friday is a teacher work day in case there is icing from Thursday and Monday is a holiday. But, Thursday could be dicy if it stays below freezing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

My favorite historical analysis site is no longer working I asked before but never found anything promising. Do you guys have another site that can provide 500 mb, 850 mb, sfc, and 250 mb analysis? So mad when these sites suddenly stop working. Thanks!

Try this as the HPC is now the WPC.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

I LOVE YOU!!!!!!

[Ntxw]

Not that it really matters at this point, but I don't think I've ever seen the Euro this bad. Just absolute worthless and pointless at this point for any met to be relying on this model in the short term in my opinion.

I've side brushed its temp forecast. We're better off using short range guidance anyway and looking at ground truth.

That said, snow storm on the Euro for much of the state P-Day!

Oh yeah completely agree, however many mets/offices still rely on it and so just shocked by it's poor initialization and performance in the short term.

Something about it is off too. It's not performed the best at 500mb for this situation and several times this year it struggled. It's definitely not the Euro of old.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro does have a winter storm in the same General Timeframe (Saturday to Next Tuesday) for the Southern Plains



(Btw, does anyone here have Pivotal Weather Plus? It contains the Kuchera Ratio (Higher Accuracy for Snowfall) for the Euro Model.)

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I am glad Friday is a teacher work day in case there is icing from Thursday and Monday is a holiday. But, Thursday could be dicy if it stays below freezing.

My wife works as a teacher in Keller ISD as well. Hoping there is enough freezing drizzle for school to be called on Thursday for her! At this point it looks like school may be iffy for Tuesday as well.

[orangeblood]

Several GEFS members now showing low single digit and even some below zero readings Tuesday morning for DFW. Obviously seeing fresh snow on the ground with clear skies after the storm passage!

[Ralph's Weather]

I've side brushed its temp forecast. We're better off using short range guidance anyway and looking at ground truth.

That said, snow storm on the Euro for much of the state P-Day!

Oh yeah completely agree, however many mets/offices still rely on it and so just shocked by it's poor initialization and performance in the short term.

Something about it is off too. It's not performed the best at 500mb for this situation and several times this year it struggled. It's definitely not the Euro of old.

I read somewhere, I do not know the quality of the source, that Covid has wreaked havoc on the amount of input data it receives. Though that seems like it should affect most all models equally. There is something about the Euro that is making it not near as resilient to lack of data inputs vs other models.

[gboudx]

I read somewhere, I do not know the quality of the source, that Covid has wreaked havoc on the amount of input data it receives. Though that seems like it should affect most all models equally. There is something about the Euro that is making it not near as resilient to lack of data inputs vs other models.

Yes, there's less data due to less flights is what I remember.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean and Control runs are showing snowfall amounts over 1 inch, with the potential for a major winter storm across much of the northern half of the state on Monday.