Texas Winter 2020-2021

[rwfromkansas]

Advisory issued. Excludes Tarrant/ Dallas.

[foulbeast]

WWA for northern and western North Texas.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

TXZ091>095-100>104-115>117-129-100600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.210210T0400Z-210210T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Eastland-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells,
Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman
331 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Areas of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are
expected to develop overnight and will cause light icing on
elevated roads, bridges, and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are
possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
commute.

[captainbarbossa19]

NWS Brownsville just updated the forecast for my area...Looks like they are discounting the ECMWF.

Code: Select all

Sunday Night
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Washington's Birthday
A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Why are they referring to Washington's birthday? His birthday is February 22 not the 15th.

Perhaps because that's when the National Holiday is for it this year?

That appears to be why, but most people refer to that day as "President's Day" now. Washington's real birthday is on February 22.

[Rgv20]

18zICON slightly colder compared to the earlier 12z run.

Midday Sunday

[captainbarbossa19]

Why are they referring to Washington's birthday? His birthday is February 22 not the 15th.

Perhaps because that's when the National Holiday is for it this year?

That appears to be why, but most people refer to that day as "President's Day" now. Washington's real birthday is on February 22.

I looked into it more and apparently it's formally referred to as "Washington's birthday." That is really confusing to me.

[bubba hotep]

WWA for northern and western North Texas.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

TXZ091>095-100>104-115>117-129-100600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.210210T0400Z-210210T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Eastland-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells,
Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman
331 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Areas of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are
expected to develop overnight and will cause light icing on
elevated roads, bridges, and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are
possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
commute.

[EnnisTx]

WWA for northern and western North Texas.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

TXZ091>095-100>104-115>117-129-100600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.210210T0400Z-210210T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Eastland-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells,
Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman
331 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Areas of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are
expected to develop overnight and will cause light icing on
elevated roads, bridges, and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are
possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
commute.

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1359253768345251842/LpGCSwJ_?format=jpg&name=small

I believe that will be extended by morning.

[Texas Snow]

Although the forecast discussion is not out yet, The new forecast has been posted. Lots to unpack but this is the one I love the most being a week out:

Washington's Birthday: Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[Frank P]

18z ICON run, appears a little colder and faster

[Ntxw]

Although the forecast discussion is not out yet, The new forecast has been posted. Lots to unpack but this is the one I love the most being a week out:

Washington's Birthday: Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

It's hard to get them to commit to a snow event 24-48 hours out no less a week but shows you the synoptic potential of the cold air quality involved. It's easy to snow when you sit in a cold dome with staying power. Anything that comes through is powder.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z ICON run, appears a little colder and faster

It also expands the precip sheild considerably tomorrow night, moving its main band north to just south of the metro. If that trend continues, icon is going to start looking like the hrrr pretty soon.

[Iceresistance]

More Ice on trees & powerlines since this Morning, Freezing Mist right now at 19°F

[bubba hotep]

Although the forecast discussion is not out yet, The new forecast has been posted. Lots to unpack but this is the one I love the most being a week out:

Washington's Birthday: Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

That is a high confidence call this far out, esp. for a rare weather event. However, ensemble support is rock solid right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking forward to the AFD and finding out why freezing rain and sleet was removed from the forecast in Dallas tomorrow night/Thursday. Not that I’m upset about it, but if some of these models are right, people are going to be in for a surprise.

[gpsnowman]

More Ice on trees & powerlines since this Morning, Freezing Mist right now at 19°F

One would think with that temp the precip would be sleet. The cold profile is very low with these Arctic airmasses.

[Ntxw]

GFS is still persistent with some precip on Saturday for some. It's consistently the furthest north of the OP guidance.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS trended warmer for Storm #1, but Storm #2 on the West Coast at +102 Hours has came onshore faster than the 12z Run.

[Haris]

getting closer

[Iceresistance]

GFS-Para now working again!

[Lagreeneyes03]

Advisory issued. Excludes Tarrant/ Dallas.

Y tho?