Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Cerlin]

I’m noticing very freezing drizzle all over the northern part of DFW on radar. For me, there’s some extremely light flakes here in Norman and certain parts of OKC got some brief lake effect snow earlier. Based on the soundings and radar data, it looks like the entire region is ripe with moisture. It wouldn’t surprise me if DFW got a head start on this ice event and, if over the next 48 hours, there was continuous moisture in ranging from freezing fog to heavy freezing rain. I don’t care what the models are saying, DFW won’t be above freezing at all tomorrow.

[iorange55]

No longer live in the area (Los Angeles now) but I’m following along. Hopefully this event is just as exciting as the foot of snow we had years ago.

Take lots of photos for those of us no longer in the area! LA weather is so boring.

[rwfromkansas]

At 29 now, so colder than I expected. Cold enough icing could become an issue if heavy.

[Brent]

No longer live in the area (Los Angeles now) but I’m following along. Hopefully this event is just as exciting as the foot of snow we had years ago.

Take lots of photos for those of us no longer in the area! LA weather is so boring.

LA has weather?

[Ralph's Weather]

Freezing rain will be a concern into western East Texas tomorrow night and maybe even before then. The freeze line stretches from near Sulphur Springs to Waxahachie and SW from there.

[Ntxw]

To put it into perspective.

GFS/ICON/CMC/Ukmet/Euro all have snow falling in North Texas while temps are either in the single digits or falling to the single digits Monday.

They all send frozen precip deep into Texas to the coast.

It's going to be fun read from the AFDs. At what point do they start using historical/near record outbreak wording?

[Ralph's Weather]

To put it into perspective.

GFS/ICON/CMC/Ukmet/Euro all have snow falling in North Texas while temps are either in the single digits or falling to the single digits Monday.

They all send frozen precip deep into Texas to the coast.

It's going to be fun read from the AFDs. At what point do they start using historical/near record outbreak wording?

I am sure they would prefer to wait until Saturday or at least Friday, but the evidence is becoming pretty overwhelming. They do have the advantage of being able to ease into the forecast with each forecast update because they still have 5 days before the event. If the Euro becomes consistent in the forecast then we can just about lock it in and just wait on the weekend to resolve the finer details of where banding may set up.

[Ntxw]

FWIW there is a second outbreak of cold coming late next week. CPC is highlighting potential that is a separate air mass than this one. I doubt it will be anything like the President's day outbreak/snowstorm but in itself is a pretty cold surge. There will probably be some kind of threat of a winter weather system with it.

[somethingfunny]

FWIW there is a second outbreak of cold coming late next week. CPC is highlighting potential that is a separate air mass than this one. I doubt it will be anything like the President's day outbreak/snowstorm but in itself is a pretty cold surge. There will probably be some kind of threat of a winter weather system with it.

https://i.imgur.com/bsuOMNL.png

This month could be a very long duration of below normal temperature

[Ntxw]

DFW airport has fallen to 29F with freezing drizzle/mist. Stay safe out there in the morning guys, black ice is dangerous.

[mcallum177]

Google Maps already has yellow spots showing up along Dallas North Tollway which matches up with the patchy drizzle on radar. DNT and George bush is red/yellow and so is 75 and 121 and DNT and 121 interchanges.

[Brent]

New FWD AFD

Quick Summary: Arctic outbreak will last through early to mid
next week. The coldest conditions will be Sunday through Tuesday,
when lows in the single digits to teens, and highs in the 20s are
expected. There will be multiple opportunities for freezing or
frozen precipitation: Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday night-Monday.

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period, as
isentropic lift above the frontal layer persists out ahead of the
shortwave off to the west. The better lift and subsequent chances
for precipitation will shift south during the day as the shortwave
drops southeast across Mexico. Unfortunately it looks like rain
falling in areas that are below freezing may last as late as
midday Thursday, which means additional accumulations of freezing
rain will remain possible Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty as to exactly where the freezing line will lie and
will need to closely monitor temperature and precip timing trends
in later forecasts. Either way, there will likely be some ongoing
travel impacts on area roads on Thursday, particularly for areas
in the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.

The cold rain will move south of the Central Texas counties
Thursday evening and will be followed by the next push of arctic
air. Friday highs will hold mainly in the 30s, and will be
followed by lows from the teens in the northwest to right around
freezing across the south. The next shortwave will swing across
the region on Saturday, bringing a quick shot of sleet or snow to
the area. Limited moisture should preclude any accumulations. The
more significant outcome will be a stronger surge of arctic air,
dropping temperatures into the 20s Saturday evening. Sunday
morning lows will bottom out in the teens with some single digits
possible across the northwestern zones. North winds of 15-25 MPH
will yield wind chills from the single digits to below zero.

This will start the 3 or so day stretch of some of the most frigid
conditions this area has experienced in decades. Meanwhile, the
conveyor belt of mid level disturbances will continue as the next
wave passes overhead Sunday night through Monday. Run to run and
model to model consistency continues with regard to widespread
good chances for measurable snow with this system. Considerable
variability still exist, however, regarding accumulations, so will
continue holding off any mention of heavy snow at this time.
Whatever the case, another cold air push will follow as the system
exits to the east Monday night. This will keep the streak of teens
to single digit lows and sub-freezing highs going through at least
Tuesday. It looks like a gradual warming trend should commence mid
to late next week as the arctic high begins to finally shift east
of the Plains.

[EnnisTx]

good chances for measurable snow with this system. Considerable
variability still exist, however, regarding accumulations, so will
continue holding off any mention of heavy snow at this time.

I BELIEVE HE MENTIONED HEAVY SNOW WITHOUT WANTING TO! LOL

[WinterMax]

Thank goodness for the Euro, for those of us in central Louisiana. Hoping this freezing rain threat is lessened by warming temps.

[gpsnowman]

Just checked outside and a thin layer of ice is on the cars. Ground seems ok but black ice can pop up anywhere. The commute today shouldn't be that bad, it is tomorrow morning I am worried about.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For SE Tx folks, this looks to be mostly a sleet event. Very large, prominent warm nose above the surface for most of the day Monday, so about 95% of what we see will be sleet. I think towards the end of the event, we could see some light snow. Other than that, all sleet according to the sounding.

Dallas sounding looks unreal. Saturated all the way to 300 MB and a sfc temp in the single digits.

Now the latest has Sugar Land at 4F Tuesday morning. This seems extreme, but is it? Im certainly no expert, but there is a very dry airmass moving in, with lots of snow/ice on the ground. This is very difficult to predict, but in my opinion, snow/ice cover could lead to temps plummeting this low. Whats the best way to predict this?

As a natural human being, I'm now being greedy and want winter precip on Sunday with frontal passage, hoping we can get temps to plummet a bit more with FROPA!! Hahaha

[gpsnowman]

Local TV mets are mentioning sleet more for Thursday morning. Although still dangerous, a much better and safer option than freezing rain. And then our beautiful snow on Saturday and Monday. Watching snow fall and stick while temps are in the teens will be amazing to witness. Cant wait!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

The freezing line has moved to over my head this morning. I'll be heading to McKinney later this morning so hoping roads are ok.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What does the Euro have for these 0z lows? Are they as wild as the GFS?

[WinterMax]

What does the Euro have for these 0z lows? Are they as wild as the GFS?

Not even close, the GFS is I drunk