Texas Winter 2020-2021

[rwfromkansas]

I’m not posting anything on social media on snow since I did so too early before. But, wow. My only concern is the CMC shows DFW the battle zone. But, it’s likely too warm. Roads fine in Keller but tomorrow may be different if there is any decent QPF. Almost got down to 28 IMBY...

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRR struggles to get DFW above freezing today but the 14z forecast is going to bust about 2F too warm. Likely that everything that falls across DFW from here on out will be some form of frozen.

[wxman57]

Make no mistake, this is going to be a very bad winter storm for Texas on Monday. Travel across the state may be shut down. Don't plan on going anywhere after Sunday afternoon. Once the main upper trof passes Monday, the real cold arrives. Even the EC sees it now (teens in Houston Tuesday). Glad I flew to Darwin.

[Ntxw]

NWS FW wording. You don't see this every day. LIkely more AFDs across Texas will start sounding the alarm.

Quick Summary: Arctic outbreak will last through early to mid
next week. The coldest conditions will be Sunday through Tuesday,
when lows in the single digits to teens, and highs in the 20s are
expected. There will be multiple opportunities for freezing or
frozen precipitation: Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday night-Monday.

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period, as
isentropic lift above the frontal layer persists out ahead of the
shortwave off to the west. The better lift and subsequent chances
for precipitation will shift south during the day as the shortwave
drops southeast across Mexico. Unfortunately it looks like rain
falling in areas that are below freezing may last as late as
midday Thursday, which means additional accumulations of freezing
rain will remain possible Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty as to exactly where the freezing line will lie and
will need to closely monitor temperature and precip timing trends
in later forecasts. Either way, there will likely be some ongoing
travel impacts on area roads on Thursday, particularly for areas
in the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.

The cold rain will move south of the Central Texas counties
Thursday evening and will be followed by the next push of arctic
air. Friday highs will hold mainly in the 30s, and will be
followed by lows from the teens in the northwest to right around
freezing across the south. The next shortwave will swing across
the region on Saturday, bringing a quick shot of sleet or snow to
the area. Limited moisture should preclude any accumulations. The
more significant outcome will be a stronger surge of arctic air,
dropping temperatures into the 20s Saturday evening. Sunday
morning lows will bottom out in the teens with some single digits
possible across the northwestern zones. North winds of 15-25 MPH
will yield wind chills from the single digits to below zero.

This will start the 3 or so day stretch of some of the most frigid
conditions this area has experienced in decades. Meanwhile, the
conveyor belt of mid level disturbances will continue as the next
wave passes overhead Sunday night through Monday. Run to run and
model to model consistency continues with regard to widespread
good chances for measurable snow with this system. Considerable
variability still exist, however, regarding accumulations, so will
continue holding off any mention of heavy snow at this time.
Whatever the case, another cold air push will follow as the system
exits to the east Monday night. This will keep the streak of teens
to single digit lows and sub-freezing highs going through at least
Tuesday. It looks like a gradual warming trend should commence mid
to late next week as the arctic high begins to finally shift east
of the Plains.Quick Summary: Arctic outbreak will last through early to mid
next week. The coldest conditions will be Sunday through Tuesday,
when lows in the single digits to teens, and highs in the 20s are
expected. There will be multiple opportunities for freezing or
frozen precipitation: Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday night-Monday.

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period, as
isentropic lift above the frontal layer persists out ahead of the
shortwave off to the west. The better lift and subsequent chances
for precipitation will shift south during the day as the shortwave
drops southeast across Mexico. Unfortunately it looks like rain
falling in areas that are below freezing may last as late as
midday Thursday, which means additional accumulations of freezing
rain will remain possible Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty as to exactly where the freezing line will lie and
will need to closely monitor temperature and precip timing trends
in later forecasts. Either way, there will likely be some ongoing
travel impacts on area roads on Thursday, particularly for areas
in the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.

The cold rain will move south of the Central Texas counties
Thursday evening and will be followed by the next push of arctic
air. Friday highs will hold mainly in the 30s, and will be
followed by lows from the teens in the northwest to right around
freezing across the south. The next shortwave will swing across
the region on Saturday, bringing a quick shot of sleet or snow to
the area. Limited moisture should preclude any accumulations. The
more significant outcome will be a stronger surge of arctic air,
dropping temperatures into the 20s Saturday evening. Sunday
morning lows will bottom out in the teens with some single digits
possible across the northwestern zones. North winds of 15-25 MPH
will yield wind chills from the single digits to below zero.

This will start the 3 or so day stretch of some of the most frigid
conditions this area has experienced in decades. Meanwhile, the
conveyor belt of mid level disturbances will continue as the next
wave passes overhead Sunday night through Monday. Run to run and
model to model consistency continues with regard to widespread
good chances for measurable snow with this system. Considerable
variability still exist, however, regarding accumulations, so will
continue holding off any mention of heavy snow at this time.
Whatever the case, another cold air push will follow as the system
exits to the east Monday night. This will keep the streak of teens
to single digit lows and sub-freezing highs going through at least
Tuesday. It looks like a gradual warming trend should commence mid
to late next week as the arctic high begins to finally shift east
of the Plains.

[rwfromkansas]

That 6 GFS would surpass all my childhood snowstorms except one, especially since it would not start melting immediately. Road crews here would not know what to do with snow that immediately accumulated on roads.

[Iceresistance]

Last Model post before 12z (Except for NAM & ICON)

0z GFS-Para


24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall


6z GFS-Para


24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[SoupBone]

Make no mistake, this is going to be a very bad winter storm for Texas on Monday. Travel across the state may be shut down. Don't plan on going anywhere after Sunday afternoon. Once the main upper trof passes Monday, the real cold arrives. Even the EC sees it now (teens in Houston Tuesday). Glad I flew to Darwin.

Even Houston? I get that this thread is centered around DFW.

[bubba hotep]

All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

Remember way back almost a 100 pages ago when the 1st potential system we were tracking busted and we were mocking the models? Oh wait, that was last week!

[Iceresistance]

All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

Remember way back almost a 100 pages ago when the 1st potential system we were tracking busted and we were mocking the models? Oh wait, that was last week!

I remember that very well, the models were surprisingly consistant for winter weather for the last 1-2 weeks!

[Ntxw]

The latest AO reading has reached -5. This is going in the books along with 1978 and 1985 featuring cold on our side of the world with the severe AO dive.

[Iceresistance]

The latest AO reading has reached -5. This is going in the books along with 1978 and 1985 featuring cold on our side of the world with the severe AO dive.

https://i.imgur.com/H9aRgUm.gif

WOW! What about 1989?

[Ntxw]

The latest AO reading has reached -5. This is going in the books along with 1978 and 1985 featuring cold on our side of the world with the severe AO dive.

https://i.imgur.com/H9aRgUm.gif

WOW! What about 1989?

1989 only hit -3.4 or so as far as delivery pattern it was not that impressive. The air mass was really cold in 1989 is likely what delivered with optimal radiational cooling.

[Iceresistance]

The latest AO reading has reached -5. This is going in the books along with 1978 and 1985 featuring cold on our side of the world with the severe AO dive.

https://i.imgur.com/H9aRgUm.gif

WOW! What about 1989?

1989 only hit -3.4 or so as far as delivery pattern it was not that impressive. The air mass was really cold in 1989 is likely what delivered.

Not very low at all considering the amount of chill that my Grandparents remembered

The NAO is also Negative right now, & the PNA is Neutral despite models saying it's trending more Negative/Positive

[Cerlin]

Freezing Mist ouside, thin sheets of Ice on the Road & Driveway, school is Online today.

19°F outside

School’s online for me today too. I’m supposed to be in calculus but there’s small flakes flying around. How am I supposed to concentrate?

[Ntxw]

WOW! What about 1989?

1989 only hit -3.4 or so as far as delivery pattern it was not that impressive. The air mass was really cold in 1989 is likely what delivered.

Not very low at all considering the amount of chill that my Grandparents remembered

The NAO is also Negative right now, & the PNA is Neutral despite models saying it's trending more Negative/Positive

1977 is another one I forgot about. There are others but they don't usually feature cold on this side of the globe.

[Ralph's Weather]

Glad I held strong on Sunday with my forecast. Can we please just bench the once great Euro for the rest of the season ala Carson Wentz?

[gboudx]

Make no mistake, this is going to be a very bad winter storm for Texas on Monday. Travel across the state may be shut down. Don't plan on going anywhere after Sunday afternoon. Once the main upper trof passes Monday, the real cold arrives. Even the EC sees it now (teens in Houston Tuesday). Glad I flew to Darwin.

Even Houston? I get that this thread is centered around DFW.

This is from Jeff Lindner so I hope it helps you with your question.

Potential for a winter storm late weekend into early next week

Today-Thursday:
Surface frontal boundary has been stalled along US 59 for much of the night with temperatures NW of this boundary in the 40/50’s and SE of the boundary in the 60’s. Dense sea fog has spread inland south of the front and recently a few showers have begun to develop along and north of the boundary. This front will remain nearly stationary for much of the day along US 59 and then begin moving southward tonight. A strong upper level disturbance will approach the region tonight into Thursday and pull moisture up and over the surface cold dome resulting in widespread showers and some thunderstorms on Thursday. Most of the rainfall today will be showers, drizzle, and light rain and that will become more widespread and increase in intensity Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures will fall on Thursday into the 50’s for the entire region with 40’s over the NW counties as the front moves offshore.

The upper level disturbance will move east of the area and Friday and a cold Canadian air mass will settle over the region with cold air advection ongoing. Expect all rainfall to end by Friday morning, but clouds may hang tough much of the day. Will go with lows in the upper 30’s and highs in the upper 40’s on Friday…but this is just a small taste of what is to come.

Weekend:
Impressive arctic high pressure dome over NW Canada surges southward down the US central plains with global forecast models showing 1040-1050mb arctic high centered over the Midwest by Sunday morning. Expect the arctic front to arrive in SE TX Saturday afternoon and already cool temperatures will fall. Strong cold air advection increases again Saturday night and will likely drive much of the area below freezing. This will likely be an advective freeze which tends to be highly damaging to sensitive plants as the concept of using the ground warmth with covering materials is reduced in strong surface wind situations. Highs on Sunday will struggle to reach 40 for much of the area and the entire area will fall below freezing Sunday evening and likely remain below freezing into midday Tuesday. Lows Monday morning will likely range in the 20’s for the entire area with wind chills in the teens…this is still warmer than some of the coldest guidance and some downward adjustments may be needed as the time period nears.

Winter Storm Potential:
Arctic air masses are notorious for their cold and potential for winter storms with some of our most memorable events of the past happening with the upper air setup of this weekend into next week. As the arctic cold dome becomes entrenched on Sunday, an upper level storm system will approach from the western US and move into TX Sunday night and Monday. This upper level system will induce surface low pressure over the lower TX coast that will bring moisture northward into the very cold air mass. Precipitation is increasingly possible Sunday night into Monday night. Forecast soundings indicate all precipitation types would be possible (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) at various times during the period as the shallow arctic air mass deepens over the area.

There is still a lot of uncertainty on how much moisture will be available, but there is increasing confidence in some sort of winter precipitation during this period

Preparation:
Residents should make cold weather preparations for an extended period of very cold weather (4 P’s) and this will have to include pipes for this event. Most events in this area are mild and short duration and do not effect pipes, but pipes will need to be protected for the intensity of the cold and long duration of sub-freezing conditions.

Monitor forecasts closely for updates over the next few days.

[Cerlin]

Genuine question: does DFW even own snowplows? I’ve seen them around in the north but I can’t say I’ve ever seen a snowplow in Dallas. If the next week were to verify, their availability would be extremely vital.

[Ntxw]

Genuine question: does DFW even own snowplows? I’ve seen them around in the north but I can’t say I’ve ever seen a snowplow in Dallas. If the next week were to verify, their availability would be extremely vital.

There are a few (handful) after the super bowl incident in 2011. With the extreme cold conditions and snow that could happen no one should be leaving their home Sun-Tues as wxman57 mention. A few plows won't help much. Plan to be stuck for a few days, get your supplies (safely) as soon as you can if you haven't already.

[Haris]

Genuine question: does DFW even own snowplows? I’ve seen them around in the north but I can’t say I’ve ever seen a snowplow in Dallas. If the next week were to verify, their availability would be extremely vital.

There are a few (handful) after the super bowl incident in 2011. With the extreme cold conditions and snow that could happen no one should be leaving their home Sun-Tues as wxman57 mention. A few plows won't help much. Plan to be stuck for a few days, get your supplies (safely) as soon as you can if you haven't already.

YALL.... the coldest model had 44F right now for me near Austin . I’m at 37 and dropping !!!