Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snow]

That's a Karl Malden warm nose right there.

Classic freezing rain setup. The QPF >1/2" could lead to some icing issues.

https://i.ibb.co/ZL6JVkh/nam3km-2021021012-fh27-sounding-32-91-N-95-99-W.png

Is that warm nose enough to raise the forecasted ground temps however (assuming the 30 itself verifies)?

[Quixotic]

No, it is not graupel. This is like drizzle that is already frozen before it hits. Long thin frozen particles like a nowflake, but without the elaborate crystal formation. Looking it up, looks like they are actually called snow grains.

I think it's the drizzle form of sleet. I saw it this morning and it's already frozen when it lands. This is a new one for me.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Make no mistake, this is going to be a very bad winter storm for Texas on Monday. Travel across the state may be shut down. Don't plan on going anywhere after Sunday afternoon. Once the main upper trof passes Monday, the real cold arrives. Even the EC sees it now (teens in Houston Tuesday). Glad I flew to Darwin.

Even Houston? I get that this thread is centered around DFW.

75% sleet falling on SE Tx for Monday storm. Possibly another on thursday

[Cerlin]

That's a Karl Malden warm nose right there.

Classic freezing rain setup. The QPF >1/2" could lead to some icing issues.

https://i.ibb.co/ZL6JVkh/nam3km-2021021012-fh27-sounding-32-91-N-95-99-W.png

Is that warm nose enough to raise the forecasted ground temps however (assuming the 30 itself verifies)?

Sounding is nearly identical to what it looked like here in Oklahoma on Monday when we got drizzle at 30°. We have been below freezing since then so I imagine if it were below freezing, especially given higher lapse rates, the temperature wouldn’t warm as a result of the warm nose.

[EnnisTx]

No, it is not graupel. This is like drizzle that is already frozen before it hits. Long thin frozen particles like a nowflake, but without the elaborate crystal formation. Looking it up, looks like they are actually called snow grains.

I think it's the drizzle form of sleet. I saw it this morning and it's already frozen when it lands. This is a new one for me.

Snow grains are a form of precipitation. Snow grains are characterized as very small (<1 mm), white, opaque grains of ice that are fairly flat or elongated. Unlike snow pellets, snow grains do not bounce or break up on impact.[1] Usually, very small amounts fall, mostly from stratus clouds or fog, and never fall in the form of a shower.

[Quixotic]

No, it is not graupel. This is like drizzle that is already frozen before it hits. Long thin frozen particles like a nowflake, but without the elaborate crystal formation. Looking it up, looks like they are actually called snow grains.

I think it's the drizzle form of sleet. I saw it this morning and it's already frozen when it lands. This is a new one for me.

Snow grains are a form of precipitation. Snow grains are characterized as very small (<1 mm), white, opaque grains of ice that are fairly flat or elongated. Unlike snow pellets, snow grains do not bounce or break up on impact.[1] Usually, very small amounts fall, mostly from stratus clouds or fog, and never fall in the form of a shower.

Then that might be it. That's usually after a winter event has passed so I never got a good look at the structure. Did this morning. Like frozen needles on the windshield.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ruining into some moderate rain and 34 degrees in Mineola, hoping roads are good in northern DFW.

[Ntxw]

Blizzard on the 12z ICON and record cold for the I-35 corridor. WoW.

[Haris]

error png

Lol

[dhweather]

That's a Karl Malden warm nose right there.

Classic freezing rain setup. The QPF >1/2" could lead to some icing issues.

https://i.ibb.co/ZL6JVkh/nam3km-2021021012-fh27-sounding-32-91-N-95-99-W.png

Is that warm nose enough to raise the forecasted ground temps however (assuming the 30 itself verifies)?

Unlikely, especially with light precip. Most other guidance has QPF around .10".

[Ralph's Weather]

NAM is initializing 5 or so degrees too warm for NE and N TX. GFS also too warm by a few degrees. I expect WAA or even ISW for eastern FW and northwestern SHV warning areas for tonight and tomorrow. This is not good at all leading up to a historic Arctic outbreak and snow storm.

[EnnisTx]

Ruining into some moderate rain and 34 degrees in Mineola, hoping roads are good in northern DFW.

Drive with caution, been many accidents around DFW due to ice, especially the bridges.

[dhweather]

Blizzard on the 12z ICON and record cold for the I-35 corridor. WoW.

That's one way to put it. SUPER DISCLAIMER: This is the German ICON model, which I have little experience with, and its 5 days out. MODEL ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY LARGE THIS FAR OUT.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Genuine question: does DFW even own snowplows? I’ve seen them around in the north but I can’t say I’ve ever seen a snowplow in Dallas. If the next week were to verify, their availability would be extremely vital.

There are about 29 snow plows for txdot in dfw, ntta has 20 more plows and dfw aiport has 25. I'm not sure how many plows the individual cities have purchased since the infamous Super Bowl issue that ntxw was referring to.

[Texas Snowman]

[url]Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
2m
quite frankly. if the GFS is right and I think it has a shot, in terms of extremes meteorologically. this is the winter equal to a cat 5 hurricane hit in the hurricane season for Texas and the deep south.[/url]

With the usual caveat that this is my opinion and people should base their decisions on official forecasts and information, I think Joe B might be right.

If we get what some of these model runs are showing, it could be once in a lifetime stuff, a Cat 5 in the Gulf wintertime event that really happens. This isn't your garden variety event (at the moment, at least) where Brent finally gets his long awaited DFW snowstorm.

With the threat of an icing event looming (maybe significant in places), we could see power supply problems mount across one of the most heavily populated corridors of our state.

And that's before the severe arctic cold fully arrives and along with it, a potentially big snowstorm too. If we do get significant ice that causes problems, repairing any of the power grid would be difficult, maybe even impossible for a few days. And we could easily see government orders for schools and businesses to shut down to conserve power and get it to homes for heating (I remember that happening a few times in the 1980s).

If it gets as cold as some model runs have suggested, and it has the staying power being suggested, we're in for a siege of winter weather that will not only break records, but could prove deadly due to power loss and all of the travel nightmares.

While I understand local mets conservatively easing into their forecasts for something so extreme and possibly even historical, IMO we're quickly reaching critical mass of a possible multi-day event that will have a huge impact in our part of the world.

Again, IMO, they'll need to start sounding the alarm bells very soon so people can do whatever they need to do in order to be prepared. This is increasingly ominous and if it all verifies, I'd bet by the end of next week, this thread is nearing 500 pages or more.

[Ntxw]

Blizzard on the 12z ICON and record cold for the I-35 corridor. WoW.

That's one way to put it. SUPER DISCLAIMER: This is the German ICON model, which I have little experience with, and its 5 days out. MODEL ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY LARGE THIS FAR OUT.

https://i.ibb.co/SRyzCQY/icon-asnow-scus-43.png

QPF wise the ICON tends to be the dry side of the guidance. But it's been trending wetter. I can't imagine what the GFS will have here in a few.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi — Not often you say maps similar to the set up for the worst winter weather event in Texas history, Feb 11-12 1899, show up, even on a model

[Ntxw]

[url]Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
2m
quite frankly. if the GFS is right and I think it has a shot, in terms of extremes meteorologically. this is the winter equal to a cat 5 hurricane hit in the hurricane season for Texas and the deep south.[/url]

With the usual caveat that this is my opinion and people should base their decisions on official forecasts and information, I think Joe B might be right. If we get what some of these model runs are showing, it could be once in a lifetime stuff, a Cat 5 in the Gulf wintertime event that really happens. This isn't your garden variety event (at the moment, at least) where Brent finally gets his long awaited DFW snowstorm. With the threat of an icing event looming (maybe significant in places), we could see power supply problems mount across one of the most heavily populated corridors of our state. And that's before the severe arctic cold fully arrives and along with it, a potentially big snowstorm too. If we do get significant ice that causes problems, repairing any of the power grid would be difficult, maybe even impossible for a few days. And we could easily see government orders for schools and businesses to shut down to conserve power and get it to homes for heating (I remember that happening a few times in the 1980s). If it gets as cold as some model runs have suggested, and it has the staying power being suggested, we're in for a siege of winter weather that will not only break records, but could prove deadly due to power loss and all of the travel nightmares. While I understand local mets conservatively easing into their forecasts for something so extreme and possibly even historical, IMO we're quickly reaching critical mass of a possible multi-day event that will have a huge impact in our part of the world. IMO, they'll need to start sounding the alarm bells very soon so people can do whatever they need to do in order to be prepared. This is increasingly ominous and if it all verifies, I'd bet by the end of next week, this thread is nearing 500 pages or more.

This has potential to go 1899 and 1983 tier category at least for us. It may not beat the hours below freezing or -8 but you are hovering with that group.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS even more Aggressive with the Storms, Storm #1 dies over Texas, but Storm #2 is bigger & more potent.

(GIF Animation will come out soon, waiting on what the GFS is going to say about Storm #3)

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Blizzard on the 12z ICON and record cold for the I-35 corridor. WoW.

That's one way to put it. SUPER DISCLAIMER: This is the German ICON model, which I have little experience with, and its 5 days out. MODEL ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY LARGE THIS FAR OUT.

https://i.ibb.co/SRyzCQY/icon-asnow-scus-43.png

Portastorm finally got to Lucy... and so did the rest of us!