Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Portastorm]

[url]Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
2m
quite frankly. if the GFS is right and I think it has a shot, in terms of extremes meteorologically. this is the winter equal to a cat 5 hurricane hit in the hurricane season for Texas and the deep south.[/url]

With the usual caveat that this is my opinion and people should base their decisions on official forecasts and information, I think Joe B might be right. If we get what some of these model runs are showing, it could be once in a lifetime stuff, a Cat 5 in the Gulf wintertime event that really happens. This isn't your garden variety event (at the moment, at least) where Brent finally gets his long awaited DFW snowstorm. With the threat of an icing event looming (maybe significant in places), we could see power supply problems mount across one of the most heavily populated corridors of our state. And that's before the severe arctic cold fully arrives and along with it, a potentially big snowstorm too. If we do get significant ice that causes problems, repairing any of the power grid would be difficult, maybe even impossible for a few days. And we could easily see government orders for schools and businesses to shut down to conserve power and get it to homes for heating (I remember that happening a few times in the 1980s). If it gets as cold as some model runs have suggested, and it has the staying power being suggested, we're in for a siege of winter weather that will not only break records, but could prove deadly due to power loss and all of the travel nightmares. While I understand local mets conservatively easing into their forecasts for something so extreme and possibly even historical, IMO we're quickly reaching critical mass of a possible multi-day event that will have a huge impact in our part of the world. IMO, they'll need to start sounding the alarm bells very soon so people can do whatever they need to do in order to be prepared. This is increasingly ominous and if it all verifies, I'd bet by the end of next week, this thread is nearing 500 pages or more.

This has potential to go 1899 and 1983 tier category at least for us. It may not beat the hours below freezing or -8 but you are hovering with that group.

As someone who works in state government and emergency management, I can assure you that the State of Texas already is working this potential series of events. Assets are being pre-positioned and planning is well under way. There are some good, savvy meteorologists that advise the state and they've been all over this thing.

[Ntxw]

With the usual caveat that this is my opinion and people should base their decisions on official forecasts and information, I think Joe B might be right. If we get what some of these model runs are showing, it could be once in a lifetime stuff, a Cat 5 in the Gulf wintertime event that really happens. This isn't your garden variety event (at the moment, at least) where Brent finally gets his long awaited DFW snowstorm. With the threat of an icing event looming (maybe significant in places), we could see power supply problems mount across one of the most heavily populated corridors of our state. And that's before the severe arctic cold fully arrives and along with it, a potentially big snowstorm too. If we do get significant ice that causes problems, repairing any of the power grid would be difficult, maybe even impossible for a few days. And we could easily see government orders for schools and businesses to shut down to conserve power and get it to homes for heating (I remember that happening a few times in the 1980s). If it gets as cold as some model runs have suggested, and it has the staying power being suggested, we're in for a siege of winter weather that will not only break records, but could prove deadly due to power loss and all of the travel nightmares. While I understand local mets conservatively easing into their forecasts for something so extreme and possibly even historical, IMO we're quickly reaching critical mass of a possible multi-day event that will have a huge impact in our part of the world. IMO, they'll need to start sounding the alarm bells very soon so people can do whatever they need to do in order to be prepared. This is increasingly ominous and if it all verifies, I'd bet by the end of next week, this thread is nearing 500 pages or more.

This has potential to go 1899 and 1983 tier category at least for us. It may not beat the hours below freezing or -8 but you are hovering with that group.

As someone who works in state government and emergency management, I can assure you that the State of Texas already is working this potential series of events. Assets are being pre-positioned and planning is well under way. There are some good, savvy meteorologists that advise the state and they've been all over this thing.

God bless those folks for all the work they do and hours they have/will put in. Scope wise this is going to be something they likely have not dealt with on such a large scale in a long time, nearly every corner of the state could be effected.

[Cuda17]

Howdy folks!

Question... The "models" have, in the past, maybe now as well, been notorious for erring on the side of warm when an arctic front barrels down. So if all of these model posts verify, how much colder are we talking? A few degrees colder? 5-10 degrees colder? Asking for a SE Texas winter storm fan.

[TheProfessor]

The GFS starts off with a classic overrunning event but it actually kicks out that trough very quickly. Someone it's going to end up with a once in a lifetime event on this run as it goes neg-tilt.

[TropicalTundra]

Temps are warming up VERY slowly. It has only increased about 1-2F since 7 am. Is it supposed to reach the 40's here?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

[url]Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
2m
quite frankly. if the GFS is right and I think it has a shot, in terms of extremes meteorologically. this is the winter equal to a cat 5 hurricane hit in the hurricane season for Texas and the deep south.[/url]

With the usual caveat that this is my opinion and people should base their decisions on official forecasts and information, I think Joe B might be right.

If we get what some of these model runs are showing, it could be once in a lifetime stuff, a Cat 5 in the Gulf wintertime event that really happens. This isn't your garden variety event (at the moment, at least) where Brent finally gets his long awaited DFW snowstorm.

With the threat of an icing event looming (maybe significant in places), we could see power supply problems mount across one of the most heavily populated corridors of our state.

And that's before the severe arctic cold fully arrives and along with it, a potentially big snowstorm too. If we do get significant ice that causes problems, repairing any of the power grid would be difficult, maybe even impossible for a few days. And we could easily see government orders for schools and businesses to shut down to conserve power and get it to homes for heating (I remember that happening a few times in the 1980s).

If it gets as cold as some model runs have suggested, and it has the staying power being suggested, we're in for a siege of winter weather that will not only break records, but could prove deadly due to power loss and all of the travel nightmares.

While I understand local mets conservatively easing into their forecasts for something so extreme and possibly even historical, IMO we're quickly reaching critical mass of a possible multi-day event that will have a huge impact in our part of the world.

Again, IMO, they'll need to start sounding the alarm bells very soon so people can do whatever they need to do in order to be prepared. This is increasingly ominous and if it all verifies, I'd bet by the end of next week, this thread is nearing 500 pages or more.

I agree... This certainly has the potential to be our coldest period since the late 1980's

I was growing up in the RGV back in that time frame and the power issues were widespread during both the 83 and 89 events and even a few since then, but on a more temporary level. Back then the Winter Texan population was much larger and what trip the grid down there was all the sudden these snowbirds who taunted us natives about wearing long sleeves and jackets when temps got into the 50's actually had to turn on their electric heaters in their RV's and mobile homes.

The upside ( at least in the Corpus) with this event happening mostly this upcoming Monday it's a Federal/State Holiday. School will be out to as well.

[Ntxw]

This is unbelievable. It's like what happened to Oklahoma in 2011 except much further south. 1899.

The GFS starts off with a classic overrunning event but it actually kicks out that trough very quickly. Someone it's going to end up with a once in a lifetime event on this run as it goes neg-tilt.

[Iceresistance]

Snowing pretty good outside, 19°F

[Iceresistance]

This is unbelievable. It's like what happened to Oklahoma in 2011 except much further south. 1899.

https://i.imgur.com/qdWrFXc.png

Could this rival the 1983 & 1899 Polar blasts?

[TheProfessor]

Arkansas gets the storm of a lifetime on the GFS.


forum photo hosting

With the temperatures we're playing with there's a legit chance that someone sees 2 feet of snow in the southern plains. If the GFS is a little bit more amped(which could very well happen knowing the GFS' bias, then it could be north Texas and Oklahoma getting crushed.

[Ntxw]

Arkansas gets the storm of a lifetime on the GFS.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/VxmLSKc/Snow.png [/url]
forum photo hosting

With the temperatures we're playing with there's a legit chance that someone sees 2 feet of snow in the southern plains. If the GFS is a little bit more amped(which could very well happen knowing the GFS' bias, then it could be north Texas and Oklahoma getting crushed.

On the run it's snowing in the low single digits in the middle of the afternoon.

[orangeblood]

Arkansas gets the storm of a lifetime on the GFS.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/VxmLSKc/Snow.png [/url]
forum photo hosting

With the temperatures we're playing with there's a legit chance that someone sees 2 feet of snow in the southern plains. If the GFS is a little bit more amped(which could very well happen knowing the GFS' bias, then it could be north Texas and Oklahoma getting crushed.

On the run it's snowing in the low single digits.

And check out that mid-week storm further south, this is insane!!

[gpsnowman]

This is unbelievable. It's like what happened to Oklahoma in 2011 except much further south. 1899.

https://i.imgur.com/qdWrFXc.png

Could this rival the 1983 & 1899 Polar blasts?

Each year 1899 and 1983 come up in the winter conversations. Mostly just for fun because nothing ever comes close to those extremes. 2011 comes close, 1985 was frigid. IF the GFS temps verify, 2021 will be included forever in future conversations. Holy moly that is unbelievably cold.

[TropicalTundra]

I think the GFS is actually going insane. 12 Inches of snow depth and -4 degrees for me. Austin looks to be around -2 or -3 which would beat the record low of all time there by 4-5 degrees.

[Ntxw]

Arkansas gets the storm of a lifetime on the GFS.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/VxmLSKc/Snow.png [/url]
forum photo hosting

With the temperatures we're playing with there's a legit chance that someone sees 2 feet of snow in the southern plains. If the GFS is a little bit more amped(which could very well happen knowing the GFS' bias, then it could be north Texas and Oklahoma getting crushed.

On the run it's snowing in the low single digits.

And check out that mid-week storm further south, this is insane!!

Yeah CPC was highlighting a second risk of dangerous cold, it's likely involved with this system but that's a long way away still.

[Lptx]

What is the timeframe for the storm Sunday/Monday? Planning to come home from Colorado early Sunday to hopefully beat the storm..

[Ntxw]

This is unbelievable. It's like what happened to Oklahoma in 2011 except much further south. 1899.

https://i.imgur.com/qdWrFXc.png

Could this rival the 1983 & 1899 Polar blasts?

Each year 1899 and 1983 come up in the winter conversations. Mostly just for fun because nothing ever comes close to those extremes. 2011 comes close, 1985 was frigid. IF the GFS temps verify, 2021 will be included forever in future conversations. Holy moly that is unbelievably cold.

I mean go back in the thread. We thought the models were crazy throwing a few single digit lows around and some 10F highs but now it's gone even more extreme since.

[Quixotic]

[url]Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
2m
quite frankly. if the GFS is right and I think it has a shot, in terms of extremes meteorologically. this is the winter equal to a cat 5 hurricane hit in the hurricane season for Texas and the deep south.[/url]

With the usual caveat that this is my opinion and people should base their decisions on official forecasts and information, I think Joe B might be right.

If we get what some of these model runs are showing, it could be once in a lifetime stuff, a Cat 5 in the Gulf wintertime event that really happens. This isn't your garden variety event (at the moment, at least) where Brent finally gets his long awaited DFW snowstorm.

With the threat of an icing event looming (maybe significant in places), we could see power supply problems mount across one of the most heavily populated corridors of our state.

And that's before the severe arctic cold fully arrives and along with it, a potentially big snowstorm too. If we do get significant ice that causes problems, repairing any of the power grid would be difficult, maybe even impossible for a few days. And we could easily see government orders for schools and businesses to shut down to conserve power and get it to homes for heating (I remember that happening a few times in the 1980s).

If it gets as cold as some model runs have suggested, and it has the staying power being suggested, we're in for a siege of winter weather that will not only break records, but could prove deadly due to power loss and all of the travel nightmares.

While I understand local mets conservatively easing into their forecasts for something so extreme and possibly even historical, IMO we're quickly reaching critical mass of a possible multi-day event that will have a huge impact in our part of the world.

Again, IMO, they'll need to start sounding the alarm bells very soon so people can do whatever they need to do in order to be prepared. This is increasingly ominous and if it all verifies, I'd bet by the end of next week, this thread is nearing 500 pages or more.

I'll go you one better than both of those events: the NYE Ice Storm of 78-79 in Dallas. Thunderstorms in low 20s. 600,000 people without power in single degree weather. With all the sparking powerlines we were trapped for 6 days in the house until power got restored. That might be the most impactful weather event I've ever been through. Monster icicles hanging from the third floor to the ground.

[iorange55]

Geez. Currently warning all my family back home. There is a part of me (a large part) that's jealous and would love to experience this record-breaking event, but the rational side of me is like, "Uh, people need to be prepared because this might be ugly."

This seems like it's transitioning from a fun winter storm to a potentially dangerous situation.

[gpsnowman]

Could this rival the 1983 & 1899 Polar blasts?

Each year 1899 and 1983 come up in the winter conversations. Mostly just for fun because nothing ever comes close to those extremes. 2011 comes close, 1985 was frigid. IF the GFS temps verify, 2021 will be forever included in future conversations. Holy moly that is unbelievably cold.

Double post, sorry about that. I am not able to remove it.