Texas Winter 2020-2021

[WinterMax]

Glacial Onslaught from both the GFS and Euro for the Lower 48 next 10 days, Incredible!!! About as wild of a 7-10 days you'll find during any season!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/total_snow_kuchera/1612958400/1613822400-fKTH898e0T8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/total_snow_kuchera/1612958400/1613822400-fZ3qDdADSjU.png

Do those maps also show ice accumulations?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1359580704150089738

[Ntxw]

GFS MOS extended for DFW (statistical) afternoon high of 7 on Monday (12 early in the day after midnight) and a low of 4 Tuesday morning. NWS loves MOS, will they tag along with it?

Code: Select all

KDFW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/10/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192     
      THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17|THU CLIMO
 N/X  28  38| 24  31| 21  25| 20  24|  6   7|  3  20| 11  27| 20 38 60
 TMP  30  35| 26  27| 23  23| 22  20| 12   7|  4  19| 13  25| 21     
 DPT  22  25| 17  13| 14  14| 15  12|  1  -2| -2   7|  8  14| 15     
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV     
 WND  17  17| 18  18| 16  16| 15  21| 24  22| 16   9|  9  10| 12     
 P12  70  17|  9  11| 22  34| 29  39| 68  57| 13  17| 21  27| 32 15 14
 P24      70|     15|     34|     48|     69|     17|     49|       21
 Q12   1   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   1|  4   2|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       1|      0|      1|      1|      3|      0|       |         
 T12  15   3|  2   2|  2   2|  2   3|  3   2|  1   2|  3   4|  5     
 T24        |  3    |  2    |  2    |  3    |  2    |  5    |  5     
 PZP  53  24| 28  34| 40  39| 39  22| 26   5|  7   9| 14  14| 11     
 PSN   0  17|  4  52| 59  46| 60  68| 66  81| 78  65| 57  49| 42     
 PRS  18   0| 25   2|  0  15|  0  10|  6   5|  2   0|  3   7|  5     
 TYP   Z   R|  Z   Z|  Z   Z|  Z   S|  Z   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S     
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      1|      2|      0|       |         

Just as wild for Austin.

Code: Select all

KAUS   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/10/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192     
      THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17|THU CLIMO
 N/X  36  41| 33  38| 30  37| 26  33| 11  11|  3  30| 20  34| 26 42 65
 TMP  40  38| 35  35| 32  32| 28  27| 19   9|  7  29| 21  33| 27     
 DPT  31  32| 29  26| 24  23| 23  22|  8   0|  3  18| 19  25| 22     
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV     
 WND  15  18| 15  16| 15  16| 14  13| 29  29| 14  12| 12  10| 19     
 P12  21  82| 54  23| 18  41| 21  25| 75  51| 11  11| 17  38| 42999999
 P24      82|     59|     41|     35|     75|     11|     43|       27
 Q12   0   3|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  4   2|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       3|      1|      1|      1|      4|      0|       |         
 T12  30  17|  4   4|  2   3|  3   3|  4   4|  1   3|  4   5|  5     
 T24        | 19    |  4    |  3    |  4    |  4    |  6    |  8     
 PZP   9   9|  7  22| 23  38| 36  36| 36  11|  8  15| 21  26| 18     
 PSN   0   0|  2   7|  9  12| 18  22| 15  65| 67  48| 45  35| 25     
 PRS   4   3|  4   5| 11  19| 16   2| 19   6|  0   0|  0   1|  4     
 TYP   R   R|  R   R| RS   Z|  Z   Z|  Z   S|  S   S|  Z   Z|  Z   

[Rgv20]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1359580704150089738

Yeap I believe the GFS and ECMWF will be playing catch up on the Arctic Front down here...Kind of hard to believe on Sunday we will warm up to the mid 60s. Both 12z Models do have lows in the mid to upper 20s for Tuesday Morning.

Will be interesting when the NAM gets in range as it usually does very well with Arctic Fronts down here.

[gboudx]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1359580704150089738

Where's Beek's with that citrus crop report for the frozen concentrated orange juice futures?

[Iceresistance]

Keep in mind that ALL Winter Storm/Blizzard Watches are usually posted up to 60 hours before the storm so we can know where the most likely impacts are.

[Iceresistance]

12z CFS on Storm #2 (Storm #1 is becoming nonexistant at this rate), it's only 5 days away . . .



Vs 0z CFS

[orangeblood]

Precip type transition zones continue to shift southeast on latest NAM

[cheezyWXguy]

Precip type transition zones continue to shift southeast on latest NAM

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/total_precip_ptype_fourpanel/1612980000/1613109600-wrnjfvWiZ8Y.png

Which is concerning, since temps continue to be overestimated. But hopefully it means more sleet instead of ice for the densely populated areas

[Haris]

Precip type transition zones continue to shift southeast on latest NAM

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/total_precip_ptype_fourpanel/1612980000/1613109600-wrnjfvWiZ8Y.png

Austin and Hill Co region need to be under WWAs at this point IMO.

[Cerlin]

Man, I haven’t really been able to be active today but this forum has been electric. I’ve been on this forum since 2017 and this winter has far exceeded the excitement from the others. I’m still in school today but MAN I can’t wait to catch up on all of the model runs and the amazing changes. The blizzard setup for presidents’ day already looks historical and I’m extremely optimistic.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

What are y’all seeing for San Antonio/Bexar County? I’m guessing primarily ice, but no snow...

[orangeblood]

Precip type transition zones continue to shift southeast on latest NAM

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/total_precip_ptype_fourpanel/1612980000/1613109600-wrnjfvWiZ8Y.png

Austin and Hill Co region need to be under WWAs at this point IMO.

The only thing that may save the Hill Country/Austin to Waco is timing of precip...the main S/W is swinging through tomorrow afternoon, during the daylight hours. Could keep temps elevated somewhat

[cajungal]

What are y’all seeing for San Antonio/Bexar County? I’m guessing primarily ice, but no snow...

I been trying to keep up with San Antonio weather myself. Have a family vacation planned and was supposed to leave Monday morning from SE Louisiana. Right now it does not look good. And if things don’t change by Sat night, May have to cancel.

[South Texas Storms]

What are y’all seeing for San Antonio/Bexar County? I’m guessing primarily ice, but no snow...

Looks like SA could see some light snowfall accumulations on Monday. Primary precipitation type looks to be sleet right now, possibly ending as snow.

[cajungal]

What are y’all seeing for San Antonio/Bexar County? I’m guessing primarily ice, but no snow...

Looks like SA could see some light snowfall accumulations on Monday. Primary precipitation type looks to be sleet right now, possibly ending as snow.

Do you think it will be too hazardous to get to San Antonio from SE Louisiana? Have a hotel booked for the week. And we were planning to leave Monday morning at 6 a.m.

[jaguars_22]

Anyone think I could see any accumulation down here in Victoria?

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone think I could see any accumulation down here in Victoria?

I would be preparing for some ice accumulations in Victoria. The precipitation could briefly end as snow down there but for the most part it should be freezing rain and some sleet.

[Tammie]

Precip type transition zones continue to shift southeast on latest NAM

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/total_precip_ptype_fourpanel/1612980000/1613109600-wrnjfvWiZ8Y.png

So is DFW going to be dry?

[wxman22]

What are y’all seeing for San Antonio/Bexar County? I’m guessing primarily ice, but no snow...

Looks like SA could see some light snowfall accumulations on Monday. Primary precipitation type looks to be sleet right now, possibly ending as snow.

Do you think it will be too hazardous to get to San Antonio from SE Louisiana? Have a hotel booked for the week. And we were planning to leave Monday morning at 6 a.m.

At the way things look now, yes it will be too dangerous, in fact i wouldn't be surprised if they end up having to close down parts of the interstates.