Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snowman]

KFOR is calling for a low after the Big Storm to be -15°F!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/7dayb72bcc1386d74510.jpg

Mike Morgan has seen enough, he’s all in.

[Ntxw]

2021 Cold Outbreak lore Part 1: OKC and DFW beat guidance after forecasting above freezing temperatures that didn't materialize. What trended as a mild week became a nearly weeklong cold snap staying many hours below freezing.

[Brent]

Oh try me Pete

[Texas Snowman]

Oh try me Pete

https://i.ibb.co/c24QDrJ/Screenshot-20210210-173219-422.png

Ha! That wins the local Internet universe today!

[Ralph's Weather]

For Tuesday morning Euro is the warmest for Tyler with 9 degrees and GFS is lowest with -9. Most are around 0 or below. Tyler had been below 0 once in history with -1 in 1930. 1899 got down to 0 on consecutive nights.

[Tammie]

Wxman57 has me concerned I should buy a generator. Lowes already picked up all of their heaters, none in stock.

We picked one up at Harbor Freight today. Lowe’s, Depot, etc sold out in our area.

[Iceresistance]

COD Meterology 18z GEFS still stuck at +138 hours . . .

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Potential freezing rain starting to show up on radar south of DFW. Branches please stay in your trees tonight.

I have a 70+ year old live oak that I had thoroughly trimmed the week after Thanksgiving. Hoping that investment saves me some heartbreak.


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[rwfromkansas]

Luckily I have planted a fire dragon maple a few years ago. Rated one of the best for ice storms. It’s an amazing red color in fall.

[Haris]

2021 Cold Outbreak lore Part 1: OKC and DFW beat guidance after forecasting above freezing temperatures that didn't materialize. What trended as a mild week became a nearly weeklong cold snap staying many hours below freezing.

https://i.imgur.com/JDepVeR.gif

Down to 35 in WAustin. May not get above freezing now too thru Sat

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS has a high of 10 for Tyler on Monday which would tie the all time record low high. Euro shows high in the upper 20s with other models in between.
For snow Canadian keeps things south giving Tyler 3 or so inches while ICON and GFS show a foot.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm going to sound like a brat, but i want two winter weather events in the same week to really make this a historic event. Monday seems to be a given, but Thursday is going to be close for SE TX. I think if the snow pack is large enough to our north, and in our area, i think temps will remain low enough for snow. I was thinking maybe Sunday is a possibility as well, but the models disagree. We need temps to drop around 5 degrees.

Thanks to all the mets here for their feedback. Historic event taking place, which none of us will ever forget. Let's just do our best to stay safe, and help others around us stay safe as well.

[orangeblood]

Latest GEFS continues to get more aggressive as we get closer to these “events”, big confidence builder when making forecasts

[Iceresistance]

Latest GEFS continues to get more aggressive as we get closer to these “events”, big confidence builder when making forecasts

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1612980000/1614168000-UxoxwnswzHs.png

What about the Ensemble snow totals? COD Meteorology is having issues & is slower with the 18z GEFS . . .

[Ntxw]

Latest GEFS continues to get more aggressive as we get closer to these “events”, big confidence builder when making forecasts

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1612980000/1614168000-UxoxwnswzHs.png

NWS FW mentioned in the AFD 2-4 area wide (basically guaranty for the region) but noted variability and possible higher axis due to ratio. For North Texas it simply doesn't get any easier to forecast snow this far in advance. No less wind whipped, low visibility, powdery snow.

Remember how we love to say "why is it never easy around here." Well here you go, it's fairly easy relatively speaking so far with this one.

[EnnisTx]

2021 Cold Outbreak lore Part 1: OKC and DFW beat guidance after forecasting above freezing temperatures that didn't materialize. What trended as a mild week became a nearly weeklong cold snap staying many hours below freezing.

https://i.imgur.com/JDepVeR.gif

This has some lightning in it to the Southeast around Richland Chambers and to the East.

[Wntrwthrguy]

What are the chances the amount of mix prior to the transition to all snow isn’t as much around the Austin area as currently modeled? Would hate to lose inches of snow to it starting as sleet/freezing rain.

[txtwister78]

What are the chances the amount of mix prior to the transition to all snow isn’t as much around the Austin area as currently modeled? Would hate to lose inches of snow to it starting as sleet/freezing rain.

My take is there will be more snow back toward the Austin and San Antonio areas than models currently show. It could be more of a nowcast situation down here but I think if we get some heavier precip/sleet at first that should help transition faster to all snow.

[fendie]

18Z GFS Winter Weather Summaries... that wind is going to make this feel brutal.

Dallas/Fort Worth:



Austin:



Houston (IAH):

[fendie]

18Z GEFS individual member snow totals:

Through noon Tuesday: