Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

Looks like the GFS-P's plug has been pulled again . Stuck at hr90.

[Ntxw]

Helpful explanation. It has happened before this winter that the solution reverts back to prior solutions.

See some showers developing west of Denton on radar.

Nothing is getting pushed back. If anything, the timing for the Monday storm is being moved up, which is actually what we don’t want. To maximize snow totals, we want a slower, more amplified system, like what the 6z gfs showed. Expect changes to the depictions as the models start to sense different variables of the pattern. The track and evolution is starting to be impacted by the models sensing a leading disturbance before Monday’s main event. Given the complexity of the event, there will assuredly be some variation, and it would not surprise me at all to see the insane totals from this morning come back into play.

Plus, more showers are popping up to the south and southwest. This event isn’t done yet.

One other thing to consider is that we won’t know anything about mesoscale features, like convective potential or banding, until like a day before the event. Despite the inevitable variability, this is still the closest thing to a shoe-in we’ve seen in a long time

Some light precip just came by the airport. It wasn't sleet or graupel it's been a light drizzle/rain so there is glazing on things not held to the ground.

[txtwister78]

UKMET really likes Austin on this run.

[D_longhorn]

?????!!?
Which weather app is that? I like the display
https://i.imgur.com/zZhcNLT.jpg

[Lagreeneyes03]

That ICON. Wow. Would like a slight shift south to feel more secure, as it could easily screw DFW still.

Latest GFS is alarming. Major shift north. Major.

I swear if we get screwed.....

[TropicalTundra]

?????!!?
Which weather app is that? I like the display
https://i.imgur.com/zZhcNLT.jpg

It’s accuweather, should be on the App Store. Oh and also there are flurries outside my house.

[Brent]

UKMET really likes Austin on this run.

https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2021021100/144/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

those lower amounts around northern DFW...

[utweather]

UKMET really likes Austin on this run.

https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2021021100/144/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

I'd be happy with 4 inches and temps below freezing the following day. 8 inches would be amazing. I guess Friday we will know alot more.

[captainbarbossa19]

UKMET really likes Austin on this run.

https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2021021100/144/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

It really likes Southeast Texas and Louisiana too. It's even snowing in the Gulf on this run. Honestly, since it's going to be so cold, I would rather have snow than freezing rain or sleet.

[cheezyWXguy]

For what it’s worth, the 0z 12k NAM 500mb pattern looks nearly identical in 500mb pattern and timing to the 6z GFS yesterday morning (everyone’s favorite run)

[Brent]

The euro still looks great

Unfortunately the euro has been absolute trash this week

[cheezyWXguy]

The euro still looks great

Unfortunately the euro has been absolute trash this week

https://i.ibb.co/y4G9NvS/sn10-acc-us-sc-10.png

Let me guess, slower on timing than the gfs?

[Brent]

The euro still looks great

Unfortunately the euro has been absolute trash this week

https://i.ibb.co/y4G9NvS/sn10-acc-us-sc-10.png

Let me guess, slower on timing than the gfs?

Yeah nothing during the day Sunday it's all late evening to early morning Monday

Euro around zero or just below zero Tuesday morning

[Haris]

31 now W of Austin

Legit worried what happens by morning, will update yallm

[txtwister78]

Late post or "early" but the NAM coming in further south with freezing rain for San Antonio during the day tomorrow. This would really create havoc for travel across Austin and SA Metros. Most people completely unaware. Hopefully doesn't occur.

[TexasSam]

I was looking at the traffic cameras in Little Rock. getting slammed with something white, and lots of lightning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Starting to see a glaze of ice on elevated surfaces now. Temps now down to 30 from a NWS forecast of 34, we may see 27 or 28 so roads could get rough. I an betting the band in Van Zandt and Wood Counties right now is causing issues with temps 27-28 there.

[EnnisTx]

Moderate sleet in Arlington. Driveway and street is glazed over.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi — No changes on Texas Hype. I have spoken my piece, now lets see what the weather does. Sunday/Monday and the kind of ideas described.
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@BigJoeBastardi — 06z continues southward correction toward our ideas on next week storm. Latest snow/sleet/Freezing rain totals. What the heck is SE Texas going to do with 2 inches of ball bearings that wont melt next week

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@BigJoeBastardi — All time record low for Texas is -23. The Euro has a -22 showing up on it in NE Panhandle, This should be interesting

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@BigJoeBastardi — when we get to the. 45 days ending after Jan 15, and compare to the. 45 before, this is likely to have been one o the great stratwarm turn to colder correlations on record, The magnitude of US temp flip from when 50 mb vortex got over the pole will be amazing

[Texas Snowman]

@TxStormChasers — 346AM: Spotty heavy sleet/freezing rain cell moving northeast across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and portions of North and Northeast Texas. Rapid ice accumulations are occurring under these isolated cells - and bridges/roads will be hazardous in those spots. #txwx #ctxwx
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@NWSMidland — Local reports at 330 AM indicate very slick roads across the Midland and Odessa area. Morning travelers should use caution and allow extra time to reach their destinations. #txwx
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@TravisCOSW — Radarscope precipitation mode is showing a large area of pretty intense precipitation, possibly frozen, falling over western parts of the county. Driving likely becoming hazardous.
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@MedStarEMSInfo — MedStar @FortWorthFire and @fortworthpd working numerous crashes on area highways. 35W NB @ Western Center CLOSED due to icy conditions and crashes. Roads are dangerous! Please be very careful and consider NOT going out if you don’t have to!
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@GrantJNBC5 — Getting reports of lots and lots of accidents across the DFW metroplex. Please be careful. This latest round of freezing rain has coated the roads with a thin glaze of ice. Roads have become slick and hazardous in many locations. Precip is moving northeast. #NBCDFWWeather
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@NWSFortWorth — 4:20 AM: Scattered moderate/heavier (freezing rain & sleet) showers continue to move across parts of North & Central TX. Ice acum of a tenth+ of an inch will be possible. We’re seeing many reports of ice on the roads! Take it easy out there. #dfwwx #ctxwx
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