Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ralph's Weather]

Elevated surfaces are icy here but roads seem ok. 28 with light most falling. Thankfully heavier precip fell before temps did. We will have to watch the Central TX precip shield as a small shift north would put us in freezing rain after lunch.

[Texas Snow]

A few sleet showers this morning but nothing too bad as far as freezing rain/drizzle IMBY.

Pretty good agreement between the Euro & GFS of a low near 0F for DFW next Tuesday

GEFS cut back snow totals for N. Texas and is now more n line with the EPS. Both are pointing at two potential events next week.

What is EPS showing across DFW, 4” or so?

[WacoWx]

Thundersleet west of Austin.

[Iceresistance]

GFS-Para is having issues again, only up to 96 hours on the 0z Run & stopped at 36 hours on the Current 6z run . . .

[cstrunk]

33F here in Longview
32F in Mount Pleasant
31F in Gilmer
30F in Tyler

My backyard is probably right at 32F or a hair above. I checked the patio furniture which is still wet, but no ice. I don't think any of the models had us getting down to 33F. I think most were in the 35F+ range.

NWS Shreveport says perhaps some freezing rain/sleet and then 3-5" of snow likely for the Sunday night/Monday system.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Thundersleet west of Austin.

[cstrunk]

NWS has Longview reaching 40F today. The latest HRRR and NAM NEST runs only have us reaching 35F and 37F, respectively. Models have been consistently underestimating the cold air. We'll see if that continues today.

[cheezyWXguy]

In case anyone in dfw thinks that due to last nights models
the chance for snow next week has decreased, the 6z gfs depicts 11-16” (10:1 ratio) between the two storms next week. 10:1 is probably a reasonable depiction of accumulations, because it shows some mixed precip that would cut accumulation, but kuchara would bump it back up

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1359758034390704129

[G'TownGirl]

27.1 on the weather station - rural western Williamson County. Icy. Had freezing rain/thunder early this morning around 5-ish. Most things above-ground are glazed over. Icy road reports are starting to come in for the roadways (195/2243/29/Ronald Reagan -- maybe 183A) heading south toward Austin. Icicles hanging from the roof.

[rwfromkansas]

No icy patches driving 20 minutes from north FW area to Keller. Nice and dry. If we have school I am glad since I don’t want kids hurt. Saw no accidents. Dallas County looks bad though and Weatherford west. I don’t see us above freezing today since it’s still 25.

[gboudx]

Update from Jeff Lindner.

A memorable arctic outbreak that may rival some of the historic cold air outbreaks in TX history is increasingly likely.

Very cold temperatures and several rounds of winter precipitation will result in prolonged hazards and challenges for the region and state.

Maximum cold weather preparations and precautions should be underway to mitigate property damage.

Surface boundary of modified arctic air has now progressed to the coast bringing much of SE TX into the 40’s Freezing line is close to the Brazos valley area and freezing rain has been in progress this morning over portions of central and north Texas right up to our northwest counties where temperatures are running 32-34 degrees. Think any freezing rain will remain just outside our counties, but will need to watch trends closely. TXDOT and DPS is report significant ice on roadways on both I-45, I-35, and HWY 6 just north of our area making travel to those areas difficult.

With lift increasing over the area today expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 40’s. Rain will continue into the evening and overnight and maybe even into Friday south of I-10 where drizzle and light rain could linger as the dry air has a hard time moving in. Temperatures through Saturday will be in the 30’s and 40’s and largely above freezing over much of the area. Air mass should dry out in the low level Friday afternoon and night.

Saturday:
A quick moving disturbance will move across SE TX and models are generating some light QPF. Think some of this may fall has a mix of light rain and sleet. Most of the area will be above freezing, so not expecting any impacts, but will need to watch these trends closely for any wet bulb effects or evaporative cooling that could cool the low level air mass.

Sunday:
Massive 1050mb+ arctic high builds southward into the Midwest and central plains pushing a strong “true” arctic air mass into the region. Upstream air mass in western Canada and Montana is in the -30’s and much of this air is coming down the plains. Arctic boundary should move off the coast late Sunday and the entire area will likely fall below freezing Sunday night with dangerous wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s. Expect 0 degree line to move into NW and NC TX on Monday with core of the arctic high over the Midwest and upstream temperatures into the -10’s and maybe even -20’s into OK…this is about as cold as one will ever see in the southern plains.

Monday:
Confidence is increasing that an upstream disturbance over the western US will move across TX. This disturbance will result in the formation of a coastal surface low that will bring moisture northward into the very cold air mass. Profiles continue to point toward a freezing rain and sleet event for all areas on Monday, even the coastal areas and down into portions of SC and S TX. Still a bit early to talk accumulations, but confidence is there that we will see accumulating ice from freezing rain and temperatures in the 20’s. Ground will be preconditioned by ongoing cold ahead of the precipitation onset and expect a rapid deterioration of travel conditions to the point of extreme difficulty during the day.

Tuesday:
Models have come into better agreement that extreme cold lingers into Tuesday and Tuesday AM may result in rare temperatures in this area. GFS and ECMWF have narrowed their wide spread and are starting to converge toward a low in the low 10’s as far south as I-10 and 1’s north of HWY 105 with near 20-25 all the way to the beaches…this will be a devastating cold not experienced in SE TX since December 1989. Ice and snow covered grounds will linger into Tuesday with likely significant travel impacts.

Wednesday:
Very cold air remains locked into place and another upper level disturbance looks to move across the area resulting in additional precipitation.

The prolonged nature of the very cold conditions combined with the winter precipitation is going to result in significant hazards across not only SE TX but the entire state. Property and economic losses have the potential to be substantial and widespread.

Preparations:
To be clear…this is not our “normal” freeze and maximum preparations and precautions will be required for this outbreak.

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.



Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

Detailed Forecast for Harris County:

Today: Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures steady in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Friday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of drizzle and light rain (especially in the morning). Low in the mid to upper 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Saturday: Cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain or sleet. Low in the mid 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Sunday: Cloudy with a 30% of rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow by evening. Temperatures falling into the 20’s by evening. N wind 10-20mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s.
Monday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Ice and snow accumulation is likely. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 20’s. N wind 10-20mph. Wind chills 10’s.
Tuesday: Cloudy and very cold with near record lows. Low in the low to mid 10’s and high in the upper 20’s. N wind 5-10mph. Wind chill in the 1’s.
Wednesday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of precipitation. Low near 25 and high in the low 30’s. NE wind 5-10mph. Wind chill in the 1’s and 10’s.

[Ntxw]

In case anyone in dfw thinks that due to last nights models
the chance for snow next week has decreased, the 6z gfs depicts 11-16” (10:1 ratio) between the two storms next week. 10:1 is probably a reasonable depiction of accumulations, because it shows some mixed precip that would cut accumulation, but kuchara would bump it back up

For the Euro huggers, in terms of snow it was one of the best runs yet for north Texas and Oklahoma. It was a bad set of runs for those to the south. Some different solutions will likely continue for some more runs.

Bitter cold still there.

[jasons2k]

Checking-in just north of H-town.

I've noticed the wind has picked-up compared to yesterday. Models haven't changed much except the Euro is coming in-line with the GFS and the system is a little more progressive. It's something to watch because if we clear-out and calm down overnight Monday into Tue AM, those lows on the models may still be a touch too warm.

At this point, I'm rooting for the mother lode to come down. If I'm going to lose my garden, might as well make it worth it for the cold lovers. Plus, we were planning to finally put in the "Pool 2.0" this summer and totally landscape the back after five years of waiting. I don't have much to lose yet back there. I say let's get the cold blast of the century over with now and reset

It's going to be really sad when this is over though. The tropical plant/citrus/palm tree destruction is going to change the landscape, for sure here in Southeast Texas. It will take decades to recover. Just a reminder this is Southeast Texas, and not South Florida.

For that matter, areas to our north and west will be impacted too. Those brave souls who have planted Mexican Fan palms, etc., all up the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Denton and the I-45/US-75 corridor from Houston to McKinney....you can kiss them goodbye unfortunately. The tropicals had a good run for 30+ years and it was fun to watch while it lasted.

PS: for those who are curious - this kind of cold is going to roast all the queen and pygmy date palms. Mexican fan palms, dates, Canary Island dates (aka "Pineapple palms"), and sago palms are definitely at risk, too. Even pindo palms and other "cold hardy" palms are at risk. The only ones making north of I-10 may be sabal palms, windmill palms, European fan palms, and scrub/saw palmetto.

This is a good chart: https://realpalmtrees.com/knowledge-bas ... alm-trees/

[EnnisTx]

Avoid I 35 @ 28th Street in Fort Worth. A 50 + mass casualty accident has occurred. Reports of 20 + ambulances on scene with victims trapped in vehicles.

Prayers for all.

[ztshanklin]

Avoid I 35 @ 28th Street in Fort Worth. A 50 + mass casualty accident has occurred. Reports of 20 + ambulances on scene with victims trapped in vehicles.

Prayers for all.

Yea, I’m in my office on the 20th floor of the old pier one building looking right at it from a distance. I’d post a pic but that seems in bad taste.

[rwfromkansas]

That wreck sounds...horrible. Prayers for all involved. A few sleet pellets unmelted at work.

[Iceresistance]

Snowfall rate has gone upward a little bit, ground is turning white with the snow, 15°F.

[Ntxw]

Avoid I 35 @ 28th Street in Fort Worth. A 50 + mass casualty accident has occurred. Reports of 20 + ambulances on scene with victims trapped in vehicles.

Prayers for all.

Numerous accidents are being reported around the metro. People underestimate thinking it's only a little black ice, just little glaze or they simply can't see it.

 https://twitter.com/ArlingtonPD/status/1359847390149287940

[EnnisTx]

Winter Storm Warning coming up for the activity to the South.