Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS model



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall



Vs 6z GFS



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[orangeblood]

Avoid I 35 @ 28th Street in Fort Worth. A 50 + mass casualty accident has occurred. Reports of 20 + ambulances on scene with victims trapped in vehicles.

Prayers for all.

Yea, I’m in my office on the 20th floor of the old pier one building looking right at it from a distance. I’d post a pic but that seems in bad taste.

Fort Worth is particularly dangerous right now due to the spotty nature of the precip that moved through....dry for several miles, drivers get overconfident, then you'll hit really dangerous icy spots driving way too fast!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

In case anyone in dfw thinks that due to last nights models
the chance for snow next week has decreased, the 6z gfs depicts 11-16” (10:1 ratio) between the two storms next week. 10:1 is probably a reasonable depiction of accumulations, because it shows some mixed precip that would cut accumulation, but kuchara would bump it back up

For the Euro huggers, in terms of snow it was one of the best runs yet for north Texas and Oklahoma. It was a bad set of runs for those to the south. Some different solutions will likely continue for some more runs.

Bitter cold still there.

I trust the Euro upper analysis more. To go with that, i think the amount of snow on the ground is why the GFS has temps as low as it did all week. It's the best of both worlds for us snow lovers, but i like a blend between the two.

For SE Tx folks, the models are starting to look like the thursday event will not happen. It seems to be due to a gulf low forming and shortly changing the wind flow from the SE for a short period of time. We shall see how this plays out, still a few degrees warm according to models to produce snow for Thursday. Upper levels look good but the surface needs to be cooler

[funster]

Road conditions not good. 26 degree temps not helping...

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1359869914627133442

[gpsnowman]

Winter Storm Warning coming up for the activity to the South.

That is a pretty good size blob of moisture west of Austin and San Antonio. Looks to be headed our way but dry air mixing in could scour it out.

[Iceresistance]

0z UKMET (Full totals are unknown because it goes only as far as +144 hours)

[Ntxw]

Road conditions not good. 26 degree temps not helping...

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1359869914627133442

DFW airport is currently sitting at 24F. A few days ago models had today as a mild warm up into the 40s, a song we have heard all week that never comes.

[Iceresistance]

0z CMC



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[Iceresistance]

Road conditions not good. 26 degree temps not helping...

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1359869914627133442

DFW airport is currently sitting at 24F. A few days ago models had today as a mild warm up into the 40s, a song we have heard all week that never comes.

Some models currently want clearing out & up to 33°F in Tecumseh, but it's snowing & 15°F right now . . .

[bubba hotep]

Avoid I 35 @ 28th Street in Fort Worth. A 50 + mass casualty accident has occurred. Reports of 20 + ambulances on scene with victims trapped in vehicles.

Prayers for all.

Yea, I’m in my office on the 20th floor of the old pier one building looking right at it from a distance. I’d post a pic but that seems in bad taste.

Fort Worth is particularly dangerous right now due to the spotty nature of the precip that moved through....dry for several miles, drivers get overconfident, then you'll hit really dangerous icy spots driving way too fast!!

Overnight qpf totals were less than expected and that maybe gave people a false sense of security, "road is dry here, must be good to go!" Freezing rain/drizzle is by far the worst of the winter wx options.

[gpsnowman]

The Weather Channel is showing footage of the now 100 vehicle pile-up in Fort Worth. Just awful.

[Ntxw]

FW and San Angelo WFO for their southern counties. EWX may do something similar for their northern counties but that's just a guess for me.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
825 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

TXZ155-168>170-120000-
/O.UPG.KSJT.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210211T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KSJT.WS.W.0002.210211T1425Z-210212T0000Z/
San Saba-Menard-Kimble-Mason-
Including the cities of Chappel, Cherokee, Harkeyville, San Saba,
Erna, Fort Mckavett, Hext, Menard, Cleo, Junction, London,
Roosevelt, Segovia, Telegraph, Fredonia, Katemcy, Koockville,
Loyal Valley, Mason, Pontotoc, and Streeter
825 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Additional ice accumulations of up to
a quarter of an inch expected.

* WHERE...San Saba, Menard, Kimble and Mason Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
830 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...Winter Storm Warning issued for portions of Central Texas...

Heavy freezing rain is expected to overspread parts of Central
Texas, including the Killeen-Temple-Waco area during the next few
hours. Widespread accumulations of more than one-tenth of an inch
are likely, with locally higher amounts in excess of one-quarter
inch possible. This freezing rain will lead to dangerous travel
conditions as well as some damage to trees and power lines.
Temperatures are likely to remain below freezing for much of the
day, which will prevent any significant improvement during the
day. People are urged to remain at home and avoid travel unless
necessary.

TXZ142-143-156>160-174-111800-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210212T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0002.210211T1430Z-210212T0000Z/
Mills-Hamilton-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Milam-
Including the cities of Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Lampasas,
Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco,
Marlin, Cameron, and Rockdale
830 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Additional ice accumulations of up to
one quarter of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are likely. The hazardous
conditions will impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to remain off the roads unless absolutely
necessary. If you must travel, reduce speed, keep an extra
flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[orangeblood]

Coming into NAM strike zone for Sunday/Monday system...nothing too drastically different from the globals

[rwfromkansas]

Photos of the accident are.....terrifying. I have to cross one bridge over 35 to get to Keller, and I was scared this morning, but luckily it was fine despite looking damp; I took it very slowly hoping nobody behind me would drive it full speed (I was rear-ended on this same bridge by somebody looking down at their phone once on a dry summer day...). But, I'm not much further north than that accident. If a patch of drizzle fell over the bridge, it would be a different story for me.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Did Delkus just give us the kiss of death!?? LOL!

Yeah anytime now I expect the snow to vanish j/k.. I think

Delkus doesn't have any idea what's going to happen unless he calls Steve McCauley.

He just does snarky post on Twitter....

[cheezyWXguy]

Coming into NAM strike zone for Sunday/Monday system...nothing too drastically different from the globals

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/instant_ptype/1613044800/1613347200-gMOL8Z1rayA.png

Actually I disagree. The 500mb pattern more closely resembles yesterday’s earlier runs of the gfs with the system slower, deeper, and more amplified, while the lobe ahead of it shears out to the south instead of riding up north in front. I think the gfs might be giving into its overly progressive bias right now

[Iceresistance]

News 9 Radar picking up Snowbands in the OKC Metro . . .

[Ntxw]

Great advice for those who think they feel brave.

 https://twitter.com/WRNAmbassadors/status/1359872081941381123

[weatherdude1108]

This air mass has a mind of its own, regardless of the models. Going to be a long several days! Everyone needs to be careful and plan accordingly!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...Winter Storm Warning for portions of the the Hill Country in
south central Texas...

.The combination of an upper level disturbance and cold
temperatures will allow for freezing rain through most of this
evening. While some residents will see a very cold rain, some
areas that drop to freezing in the Hill Country will start to see
an accumulation of freezing rain on roadways and exposed surfaces.
Residents are urged to use caution while driving today and be
aware of possible ice and slick spots on area roads.

TXZ189-190-192-120000-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210211T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0002.210211T1445Z-210212T0600Z/
Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Boerne, Blanco, and Austin
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Ice accumulations up to one quarter of
an inch.

* WHERE...Kendall, Blanco and Travis Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...Winter Storm Warning for portions of the the Hill Country in
south central Texas...

.The combination of an upper level disturbance and cold
temperatures will allow for freezing rain through most of this
evening. While some residents will see a very cold rain, some
areas that drop to freezing in the Hill Country will start to see
an accumulation of freezing rain on roadways and exposed surfaces.
Residents are urged to use caution while driving today and be
aware of possible ice and slick spots on area roads.

TXZ171>173-184-186-188-120000-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210212T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0002.210211T1445Z-210212T0600Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Kerr-Gillespie-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Rocksprings,
Kerrville, and Fredericksburg
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Ice accumulations up to one quarter of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

[Haris]

WINTER storm warning now for Austin