Texas Winter 2020-2021

[rwfromkansas]

I would think a deeper cold air mass might force the storm to ride further south due to the temperature gradient, but not sure if that's true. Overall, just give me at least 2 inches in this setup. As fluffy as it would be, it would cover the ground pretty well compared to compressed, heavy snow.

[Haris]

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This air mass has a mind of its own, regardless of the models. Going to be a long several days! Everyone needs to be careful and plan accordingly!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...Winter Storm Warning for portions of the the Hill Country in
south central Texas...

.The combination of an upper level disturbance and cold
temperatures will allow for freezing rain through most of this
evening. While some residents will see a very cold rain, some
areas that drop to freezing in the Hill Country will start to see
an accumulation of freezing rain on roadways and exposed surfaces.
Residents are urged to use caution while driving today and be
aware of possible ice and slick spots on area roads.

TXZ189-190-192-120000-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210211T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0002.210211T1445Z-210212T0600Z/
Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Boerne, Blanco, and Austin
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Ice accumulations up to one quarter of
an inch.

* WHERE...Kendall, Blanco and Travis Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...Winter Storm Warning for portions of the the Hill Country in
south central Texas...

.The combination of an upper level disturbance and cold
temperatures will allow for freezing rain through most of this
evening. While some residents will see a very cold rain, some
areas that drop to freezing in the Hill Country will start to see
an accumulation of freezing rain on roadways and exposed surfaces.
Residents are urged to use caution while driving today and be
aware of possible ice and slick spots on area roads.

TXZ171>173-184-186-188-120000-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210212T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0002.210211T1445Z-210212T0600Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Kerr-Gillespie-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Rocksprings,
Kerrville, and Fredericksburg
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Ice accumulations up to one quarter of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

How things change.... A few days ago both NWS SA/Austin and Corpus were kind of blah about the cold.... We were not supposed to be in the low 40's down here this morning and it's at 40 right now.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

[Tammie]

From Brian Etherton on Twitter:

MARCH 17TH! The NOAA global model known as Global Forecast System (GFS) is getting an upgrade! More or less doubling the number of vertical levels - should help with the shallow cold air events among other things. Details:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notificat ... _v16.0.pdf

[orangeblood]

Coming into NAM strike zone for Sunday/Monday system...nothing too drastically different from the globals

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/instant_ptype/1613044800/1613347200-gMOL8Z1rayA.png

Actually I disagree. The 500mb pattern more closely resembles yesterday’s earlier runs of the gfs with the system slower, deeper, and more amplified, while the lobe ahead of it shears out to the south instead of riding up north in front. I think the gfs might be giving into its overly progressive bias right now

Side by Side 500 mb comparison b/w 06Z GFS and 12Z NAM. Yeah, NAM looks slightly more amplified but from this far out it's a good sign regardless for a significant Winter Storm

[bubba hotep]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_024h.us_sc2856347bc535719c.png

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

[rwfromkansas]

The NAM seems to show a bigger connection also with the northern stream if I'm reading it correctly. Good to see these comparisons and learn more of the why behind the model shifts and changes over time. Usually, I act like an adult of 37 here, but there are times I revert to the teen wish caster of 18. Just hope people to the south don't have too bad an ice storm today seeing that accident.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_024h.us_sc2856347bc535719c.png

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

Speaking of Ensembles . . . COD Meteorology has the GEFS completely shut down since 18z Yesterday! What are the Members & Mean Snowfall showing on GEFS 0z vs 6z?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

WINTER storm warning now for Austin

I hope Portastorm got his supply of Grey Goose in.... I have to ask... Why not Tito's? Texas made!

[Haris]

[Ntxw]

Austin area is about to get slammed with icing with the batch of precip coming in. Stay safe!

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1359884075146821634




Also I find interesting the NWS used radarscope vs the in house one. I have beef (nws version) with their recent update as the radar is almost unusable. It's like the wunderground overlay stuff that is hard to utilize and is s low especially on mobile. I hope they change this or at least allow the legacy version.

[orangeblood]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_024h.us_sc2856347bc535719c.png

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

QPF is still there though....I believe they're having trouble figuring out the upper air column, forecast soundings are showing a warmer layer around 700-800 mb level causing some of the ensembles to go over to sleet for a period/cutting down on snow totals. They're more than likely overestimating that warm layer, would expect this to be a high ratio snowfall event for most of North Texas

[gboudx]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_024h.us_sc2856347bc535719c.png

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

This will not be a popular statement I'm thinking.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 at 9:22 AM

Storm #1: Up to 1 inch

Storm #2: 6-12 inches

Storm #3: Too far out

[JDawg512]

Was a WWA when I went to bed... Just woke up and with a Winter Storm Warning in effect... I need to contact work to see what the status is...

[Ntxw]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_024h.us_sc2856347bc535719c.png

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

QPF is still there though....I believe they're having trouble figuring out the upper air column, forecast soundings are showing a warmer layer around 700-800 mb level causing some of the ensembles to go over to sleet for a period/cutting down on snow totals. They're more than likely overestimating that warm layer, would expect this to be a high ratio snowfall event for most of North Texas

We sit in a very fine line. Oklahoma gets very high ratios due to cold, not necessarily more qpf. If we shift south too much we risk getting cutoff from deep moisture (this was my concern a few days go) if there is a stronger gulf low and thunderstorms to the south (just look at this morning). Too much south can easily dry us up as well.

But we're discussing 2-4" vs 3-6" vs 4-8" . FW took the middle.

[cheezyWXguy]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_024h.us_sc2856347bc535719c.png

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

QPF is still there though....I believe they're having trouble figuring out the upper air column, forecast soundings are showing a warmer layer around 700-800 mb level causing some of the ensembles to go over to sleet for a period/cutting down on snow totals. They're more than likely overestimating that warm layer, would expect this to be a high ratio snowfall event for most of North Texas

This, and the 500mb track was shifted north and faster each run yesterday. With the NAM and euro hanging back, I think the gfs is being too progressive. We’ll see what 12z gfs shows

[weatherdude1108]

This air mass has a mind of its own, regardless of the models. Going to be a long several days! Everyone needs to be careful and plan accordingly!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...Winter Storm Warning for portions of the the Hill Country in
south central Texas...

.The combination of an upper level disturbance and cold
temperatures will allow for freezing rain through most of this
evening. While some residents will see a very cold rain, some
areas that drop to freezing in the Hill Country will start to see
an accumulation of freezing rain on roadways and exposed surfaces.
Residents are urged to use caution while driving today and be
aware of possible ice and slick spots on area roads.

TXZ189-190-192-120000-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210211T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0002.210211T1445Z-210212T0600Z/
Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Boerne, Blanco, and Austin
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Ice accumulations up to one quarter of
an inch.

* WHERE...Kendall, Blanco and Travis Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...Winter Storm Warning for portions of the the Hill Country in
south central Texas...

.The combination of an upper level disturbance and cold
temperatures will allow for freezing rain through most of this
evening. While some residents will see a very cold rain, some
areas that drop to freezing in the Hill Country will start to see
an accumulation of freezing rain on roadways and exposed surfaces.
Residents are urged to use caution while driving today and be
aware of possible ice and slick spots on area roads.

TXZ171>173-184-186-188-120000-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210212T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0002.210211T1445Z-210212T0600Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Kerr-Gillespie-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Rocksprings,
Kerrville, and Fredericksburg
845 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Ice accumulations up to one quarter of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

How things change.... A few days ago both NWS SA/Austin and Corpus were kind of blah about the cold.... We were not supposed to be in the low 40's down here this morning and it's at 40 right now.

I know, right? Been that way the past day or two (colder than the forecast). We were supposed to be in the mid 30s as of the last forecast I saw. But right now at my place, it started at 32 at 6am, dropped to 29, now back up to 30 at 9:30am. Not sure how far above freezing we will get. Pretty stiff north breeze out there. Still planning on covering some of my landscape tomorrow morning, weather permitting. Haven't had time to do it yet, and the weather suddenly turned sooner than it was supposed to for me. We'll see. I've covered my hose bibs in faucet covers in the past, but they still froze up with a cover. I still have a cover and a towel I can wrap them in. They hose bits are attached to the outside wall of the house. But pouring hot water (not boiling) has worked to thaw them out when I uncover them to check. Then I let them drip a nice flow. Then cover and check later.

[orangeblood]

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

QPF is still there though....I believe they're having trouble figuring out the upper air column, forecast soundings are showing a warmer layer around 700-800 mb level causing some of the ensembles to go over to sleet for a period/cutting down on snow totals. They're more than likely overestimating that warm layer, would expect this to be a high ratio snowfall event for most of North Texas

We sit in a very fine line. Oklahoma gets very high ratios due to cold, not necessarily more qpf. If we shift south too much we risk getting cutoff from deep moisture (this was my concern a few days go) if there is a stronger gulf low and thunderstorms to the south (just look at this morning). Too much south can easily dry us up as well.

But we're discussing 2-4" vs 3-6" vs 4-8" . FW took the middle.

Yep, agreed...it's pretty remarkable just to put 2-4" as low end this far out. Ironically, the Wednesday system may be stronger than this one!!

Edit: Right on cue, ICON coming in much weaker with 1st system, stronger with the 2nd LOL!