Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38098
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4881 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:34 pm

:froze: :double: :cold:

EXTREMELY dangerous conditions will be possible during this time
period both due to precipitation and dangerously cold
temperatures. A truly arctic airmass will move into the region as
yet another shortwave approaches the region from the west. Early
morning temperatures on Sunday will likely be in the teens in the
northwest, 20-25 degrees along the I-35 corridor, and upper 20s in
the southeast. Increasing large scale forcing for ascent will
likely induce the development of light drizzle the first half of
Sunday, then as the cold airmass deepens, a transition to snow
appears likely by the late afternoon/evening hours Sunday.

Increasing forcing for ascent, along with a sufficiently deep
cold air will lead to all precipitation to fall as snow as we move
into Sunday evening and Monday morning. Heavy snowfall appears
likely during this time period, with widespread snow amounts of
2"-5" across Central and 3-7" inches across North Texas. In
addition to the snow, winds in excess of 25-30 mph could lead to
borderline blizzard conditions during the early Monday morning
hours.
Travel during this time period is highly discouraged as any
snow that falls will stick to any surface given the cold
temperatures. Wind chills during the day on Monday are forecast to
drop below -10F along and west of I-35 Monday morning, with -10
to zero degree wind chills east of I-35. The snowfall will be
ending from west to east late Monday morning into early Monday
afternoon but this does not mean that travel conditions will
improve. With breezy conditions remaining the rest of the day, the
threat of blowing snow will likely keep roads snow-packed through
the night.

With snowpack in place Monday night, overnight lows have been
decreased compared to previous forecast into the single digits for
much of the region. A few locations in far northwestern North
Texas were decreased to or slightly below 0 degrees. Of note,
those are forecast actual temperatures, not wind chill values.
These low temperatures will likely lead to several bursting pipes,
both exposed and underground. The proper precautions should be
taken now in preparation for these dangerously cold temperatures.

Tuesday Onward...

With a continued snowpack and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures
are not expected to warm above freezing anywhere across North and
Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. This will make it especially
difficult to see any improvement to area roadways after Monday`s
snowfall.

Yet another shortwave looms in the horizon as we move into the
day on Wednesday with temperatures flirting with the freezing
mark. Although there`s still some uncertainty regarding location
and timing, we`ll have to continue to monitor the potential for
accumulating snowfall once again on Wednesday. Additional impacts
are expected the latter half of the week, but more on that in the
coming days.
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22789
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4882 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:34 pm

It's an Arctic boundary reinforce. The other day I kept using the blizzard word. Winds (kts) are always involved in these tight baroclinic zone events. Only thing that might miss criteria is length of time those conditions are met.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2627
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4883 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:36 pm

I leave work and all heck breaks loose. Also geez it’s cold. I had two space heaters going in my classroom because it’s never warm in that building and a blanket. Lol.

Got the text of winter storm watch right as I got out of work. Seems bullish and issued very early, which I think implies confidence. Plus the B word... this could be something in weather lore.
1 likes   

User avatar
Quixotic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 729
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:27 am
Location: Frisco

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4884 Postby Quixotic » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:41 pm

Kind of wish I’d bought that brisket....
4 likes   

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4885 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:48 pm

Just a little tidbit when using modeled wind. They almost always UNDERESTIMATE wind (believe me, this kicked me in the butt multiple times for the forecasting challenge even when trying to adjust for it.). With that being said, if 25-30 mph winds are being modeled (and not actually being forecasted), then expect closer to 30-35mph, if not a bit higher.
4 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

jaguars_22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
Location: Victoria TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4886 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:52 pm

Ok so I’m beginning to worry that us along the coast may not get anything out of any of these storms. Gfs keeps moving north!! What do you all think
0 likes   

User avatar
SnowintheFalls
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 47
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:06 pm
Location: Burkburnett, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4887 Postby SnowintheFalls » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:53 pm

bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS lines up with the Euro and EPS

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021118/165/snku_acc.us_sc.png


This would definitely shut down parts of the state if this were to verify. I would assume this would be record setting snowfall for Wichita Falls but is there a site that I could verify that info? I have searched but cannot seem to find all time record data for the city.
0 likes   
There is no day like a snow day!

User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 703
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4888 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:54 pm

It’s still icing here, not a single person on the highway. Absolutely shocking
2 likes   
Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4889 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:56 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS lines up with the Euro and EPS

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021118/165/snku_acc.us_sc.png


This would definitely shut down parts of the state if this were to verify. I would assume this would be record setting snowfall for Wichita Falls but is there a site that I could verify that info? I have searched but cannot seem to find all time record data for the city.


If you absolutely want to know and can't find the data online, you can call the Norman office if you don't mind pestering them. They're likely very busy right now though so it probably isn't a good time for that. They may not have the info available but could probably point you in the right direction. These questions are better in the Summer time though when things are quite and the only thing to forecast is sunshine and heat lol.
3 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4890 Postby SoupBone » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:59 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Ok so I’m beginning to worry that us along the coast may not get anything out of any of these storms. Gfs keeps moving north!! What do you all think



There's a heavy Houston area posters list here. Notice it's fairly quiet? That's about all I need to know right now. :lol:
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4891 Postby jasons2k » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:00 pm

In 2011, it had stopped raining here almost a year before that summer from hell. This fall and winter has been plenty moist in this part of SE Texas, so we shouldn't see anything like that.

It's been holding steady at about 39F here all day long, and finally starting to drop-off again. On Tuesday - just two days ago, my NWS pinpoint forecast for today was for a high of 65F. Only a 25-degrees.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SnowintheFalls
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 47
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:06 pm
Location: Burkburnett, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4892 Postby SnowintheFalls » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:01 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS lines up with the Euro and EPS

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021118/165/snku_acc.us_sc.png


This would definitely shut down parts of the state if this were to verify. I would assume this would be record setting snowfall for Wichita Falls but is there a site that I could verify that info? I have searched but cannot seem to find all time record data for the city.


If you absolutely want to know and can't find the data online, you can call the Norman office if you don't mind pestering them. They're likely very busy right now though so it probably isn't a good time for that. They may not have the info available but could probably point you in the right direction. These questions are better in the Summer time though when things are quite and the only thing to forecast is sunshine and heat lol.


I appreciate the suggestion but I will assume they have their hands full right now! You would think it would be a little easier to find online.
1 likes   
There is no day like a snow day!

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4893 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:03 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Ok so I’m beginning to worry that us along the coast may not get anything out of any of these storms. Gfs keeps moving north!! What do you all think

Pro Mets correct me if I’m wrong, but the gfs has a problem with underestimating the sticking power of Arctic air like this. As a result, it may be falsely shifting the storm track north. This is one of the reasons I think it will shift back south with time.

Also, the Saturday system will be onshore in a few hours. This may allow us to get a more accurate picture into what we should expect in terms of its evolution and impact in future runs.
2 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4231
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4894 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:05 pm

SoupBone wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:Ok so I’m beginning to worry that us along the coast may not get anything out of any of these storms. Gfs keeps moving north!! What do you all think



There's a heavy Houston area posters list here. Notice it's fairly quiet? That's about all I need to know right now. :lol:


Not much new to add based on the 18z models so far. GFS is likely too warm. Favoring a blend of the Euro, Canadian, and ICON right now, which bring some ice and snow accumulations down to Victoria and Houston.
3 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4895 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:06 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Ok so I’m beginning to worry that us along the coast may not get anything out of any of these storms. Gfs keeps moving north!! What do you all think


You're fine. GFS moved south with the 18z and came in slower.

Your probably won't see snow, but you'll see ice.

My area is looking at a couple inches of sleet followed by 2-5 of snow.

Houston proper is probably an inch or two of sleet and an inch of snow.
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4896 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:07 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:Ok so I’m beginning to worry that us along the coast may not get anything out of any of these storms. Gfs keeps moving north!! What do you all think



There's a heavy Houston area posters list here. Notice it's fairly quiet? That's about all I need to know right now. :lol:


Not much new to add based on the 18z models so far. GFS is likely too warm. Favoring a blend of the Euro, Canadian, and ICON right now, which bring some ice and snow accumulations down to Victoria and Houston.


Yeah, the defeatist or trolling posts are annoying when they can't back up claims. This board is DFW centric with a lesser focus on Austin/Houston.
3 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3445
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4897 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:10 pm

38 with crazy thunder outside my house. Literally just jumped lol. This is wild
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9290
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4898 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:10 pm

18z GFS still going crazy with snow. :eek:

Image

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

Image
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

BigD938
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:32 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4899 Postby BigD938 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:13 pm

Quixotic wrote:Kind of wish I’d bought that brisket....

100% got one last night and got the smoker up under the patio. If I’m gonna be stuck I’m gonna eat lol
3 likes   

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4900 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:16 pm

GFS Op going towards what some of it's Ensemble members have been adamant about, 2 high QPF events within 48 hours of each other.... given this airmass and the 500mb pattern, the potential is on the table for the extreme

Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests