Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4981 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:0z ICON starts the Storm faster than 18z, but slightly drier . . .


It's definitely a little drier especially to the North. DFW is still doing good on this run, that leading feature early on is starting to become a player if this is a trend.


The snowless streak is already broken by Sunday afternoon on the icon

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4982 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:31 pm

Snowstorm #2 breaking out Tuesday evening to the west, ICON.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4983 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:33 pm

:froze:

this is just through Monday

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4984 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:36 pm

Brent wrote::froze:

this is just through Monday

https://i.ibb.co/1LFPHSr/icon-asnow-scus-31.png


Keep in mind that it's the 10:1 Ratio, the totals are MUCH higher in Oklahoma with up to 20:1 Ratio . . .
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4985 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:36 pm

Brent wrote::froze:

this is just through Monday

https://i.ibb.co/1LFPHSr/icon-asnow-scus-31.png


Gets everyone close to 0, some below -0.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4986 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:40 pm

0z ICON now through Next Wednesday . . . :froze:

NOTE: This is the 10:1 Ratio snowfall, it's likely 12-15 inches with the 20:1 Ratio over Oklahoma

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4987 Postby AubreyStorm » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:41 pm

Owner says firewood is hard to find in parts of north Texas as people prepare for more winter weather. :eek: :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4988 Postby Cerlin » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:46 pm

The progression on that system on the ICON is just beautiful. I know it’s slightly drier but the 00z looks better than the 18z for DFW IMO. AND the Wednesday storm just coming into view also looks really nice.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4989 Postby ZeroGee » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:48 pm

Thank you. I appreciate the expertise and enthusiasm here. I hope to be able to contribute in my own meager way.

Iceresistance wrote:
ZeroGee wrote:There’s a lot of moisture and low clouds - it’s almost fog/mist conditions. I could see it happening.


First post for you, Welcome to the Team! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4990 Postby cstrunk » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:49 pm

AubreyStorm wrote:Owner says firewood is hard to find in parts of north Texas as people prepare for more winter weather. :eek: :eek:


Very thankful for a natural gas stove/oven and a fireplace and plenty of chopped wood outside... In case I lose power I can at least make some heat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4991 Postby Quixotic » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:50 pm

AubreyStorm wrote:Owner says firewood is hard to find in parts of north Texas as people prepare for more winter weather. :eek: :eek:

I had that problem a few weeks ago. A supplier had a major fire. Found a guy in Lewisville that only charged 225 for a half cord plus 10 for delivery. That wood is good. I don’t think they let it season. Three logs lasted about 6 hours last night.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4992 Postby Texas Snow » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:50 pm

That FINAL ICON total accumulates snow total looks low for DFW and east and south due to the icon considering the beginning of it rain. I like the overall setup however.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4993 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:50 pm

0z ICON just finished . . .

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio snowfall, likely up to 20:1 in Oklahoma

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4994 Postby JDawg512 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:53 pm

Just thought I'd chime in. The situation in Austin is worsening. More freezing rain has moved through and looks like more is on the way. Listening to the emergency scanner, multiple roads are being closed including elevated interchanges and bridges. Several accidents ongoing. Hope everyone is staying safe and in place tonight..
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4995 Postby Texas Snow » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:54 pm

We should be careful saying “likely” just to show the highest possible totals as that too is also just a forecast. Sometimes we need a reality check. Speaking of, where is WXman57 tonight :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4996 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:55 pm

Iceresistance wrote:0z ICON now through Next Wednesday . . . :froze:

NOTE: This is the 10:1 Ratio snowfall, it's likely 12-15 inches with the 20:1 Ratio over Oklahoma

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/icon_asnow_scus_41.png

Important note: totals south of the red river are subdued because the icon sees everything that isn’t snow as rain, no sleet, ice etc. Additionally, with such cold air in place, there may be more snow and less mixed precip in actuality if this setup verifies
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4997 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:56 pm

JDawg512 wrote:Just thought I'd chime in. The situation in Austin is worsening. More freezing rain has moved through and looks like more is on the way. Listening to the emergency scanner, multiple roads are being closed including elevated interchanges and bridges. Several accidents ongoing. Hope everyone is staying safe and in place tonight..


Things are not looking good down there. I hope you guys have all made preps to be stuck inside for some time. It's likely not get above freezing again for a long time. Forget what the models say.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4998 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:00 pm

Of note per the 0z GFS sometime between late evening Sunday to morning Monday pressure gradient is tightest over the I-35 corridor. GFS has the highest winds as height rises and temperatures rapidly fall to single digits. This is the period where blizzard conditions looks to be. That corridor is where the strongest winds are from DFW to San Antonio (mixing to the south).
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4999 Postby Quixotic » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:Of note per the 0z GFS sometime between late evening Sunday to morning Monday pressure gradient is tightest over the I-35 corridor. GFS has the highest winds as height rises and temperatures rapidly fall to single digits. This is the period where blizzard conditions looks to be. That corridor is where the strongest winds are from DFW to San Antonio (mixing to the south).


How soon do they call a blizzard watch or warning? I assume the WSW will already be called. Probably would need some prompting from the national guys.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5000 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:06 pm

5,000 Posts! :D

0z GFS is starting to show Storm #2
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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