Texas Winter 2020-2021

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sphelps8681
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5001 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:07 pm

cstrunk wrote:
AubreyStorm wrote:Owner says firewood is hard to find in parts of north Texas as people prepare for more winter weather. :eek: :eek:


Very thankful for a natural gas stove/oven and a fireplace and plenty of chopped wood outside... In case I lose power I can at least make some heat.


Yep. Have propane for my gas stove and fireplace so heat won't be a problem. Gotta love gas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5002 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:09 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Of note per the 0z GFS sometime between late evening Sunday to morning Monday pressure gradient is tightest over the I-35 corridor. GFS has the highest winds as height rises and temperatures rapidly fall to single digits. This is the period where blizzard conditions looks to be. That corridor is where the strongest winds are from DFW to San Antonio (mixing to the south).


How soon do they call a blizzard watch or warning? I assume the WSW will already be called. Probably would need some prompting from the national guys.


Yeah I think the call would have to be from the national guys. WSW is automatic they can call it tomorrow if they wanted :lol:. My guess is if they do go for it, will be real time when whiteout conditions is happening to the west like Abilene.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5003 Postby utweather » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:10 pm

Haris wrote:I’m gonna put it bluntly, if that 0z HRRR verifies. Austin is screwed. 27F thru sat and freezing rain 24/7. Disaster unfolding


Whats it showing for Austin? I just made a quick trip to Kyle and on the way back it started raining again. I stopped to get gas and ice was on wipers and side mirrors.

Temp is down to 31.8 by the airport. You were right on those short term models last night.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5004 Postby Shoshana » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:13 pm

utpmg wrote:Hm, here on the east side, most of my surfaces (except for trees/bushes) had thawed. Now we've dipped just below freezing again, and everything in my yard is coated again. Pretty decent precip falling too. They've just close 183 from here to Cedar Park.




Took the pup out and was surprised to see fog ... this is getting worse every forecast...
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5005 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:13 pm

The icon for the Wednesday storm has the rain line over Dallas but temps are well into the 20s

Let's just hope that is snow :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5006 Postby Brandon8181 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:15 pm

It is now down to 28 in Tyler. (and it is still early in the evening) It looks like models are continuing to bust. The colder trend continues.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5007 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:17 pm

Often they just upgrade directly to blizzard warnings from winter storm warnings as needed. I don’t recall ever having a blizzard watch first either in Kansas or when I lived west in Midland. It just upgraded as they realized criteria would be met.

Sad news: neighbor’s sister-in-law died in the car pileup. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5008 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:19 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Often they just upgrade directly to blizzard warnings from winter storm warnings as needed. I don’t recall ever having a blizzard watch first either in Kansas or when I lived west in Midland. It just upgraded as they realized criteria would be met.

Sad news: neighbor’s sister-in-law died in the car pileup. :(


I've read about other blizzard warnings before(example Oklahoma in 2011) and that seems like how it goes.

Oh and that sucks :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5009 Postby Brandon8181 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:19 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Often they just upgrade directly to blizzard warnings from winter storm warnings as needed. I don’t recall ever having a blizzard watch first either in Kansas or when I lived west in Midland. It just upgraded as they realized criteria would be met.

Sad news: neighbor’s sister-in-law died in the car pileup. :(


Sorry to hear about the sad news. As we move into this "fun", but serious conditions we must all realize we aren't promised tomorrow. I hope everyone is prepared.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5010 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:23 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:It is now down to 28 in Tyler. (and it is still early in the evening) It looks like models are continuing to bust. The colder trend continues.

26 in Hideaway, thankfully it is already a holiday for the kids and wife's work said stay home tomorrow. I-20 and Loop 49 will be bad if we have much drizzle tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5011 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:23 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Often they just upgrade directly to blizzard warnings from winter storm warnings as needed. I don’t recall ever having a blizzard watch first either in Kansas or when I lived west in Midland. It just upgraded as they realized criteria would be met.

Sad news: neighbor’s sister-in-law died in the car pileup. :(


That's very sad news prayers out to family and friends.

Sometimes it's being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Can't stress enough no matter how experienced one think one is, black ice is dangerous. That strip of lanes that happened was a toll expressway (I've traveled many times to DT FW using it) and was a stretch that was...a bridge/overpass.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5012 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:28 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Often they just upgrade directly to blizzard warnings from winter storm warnings as needed. I don’t recall ever having a blizzard watch first either in Kansas or when I lived west in Midland. It just upgraded as they realized criteria would be met.

Sad news: neighbor’s sister-in-law died in the car pileup. :(


Sorry to hear about the sad news. As we move into this "fun", but serious conditions we must all realize we aren't promised tomorrow. I hope everyone is prepared.


I’ve prepared as much as I can, and I hope others do. All of my students today said “it won’t really snow” and their parents are doing nothing, which scares me. I couldn’t convince the wife to get a generator so I will just hope power stays on with our buried lines and have contingencies if I had to move us for heat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5013 Postby Quixotic » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:28 pm

Brent wrote:The icon for the Wednesday storm has the rain line over Dallas but temps are well into the 20s

Let's just hope that is snow :double:


So, this is anecdotal, but it’s been my experience that when when we get outbreaks of arctic origin we get an initial event, a series of smaller events and the when the Highs are moving off east, we get the biggest storm of them all. I’m sure the cold across the column is being underestimated especially this far out. As awesome as Sunday/Monday looks, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Wednesday is even bigger.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5014 Postby Quixotic » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:28 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Often they just upgrade directly to blizzard warnings from winter storm warnings as needed. I don’t recall ever having a blizzard watch first either in Kansas or when I lived west in Midland. It just upgraded as they realized criteria would be met.

Sad news: neighbor’s sister-in-law died in the car pileup. :(

I am sorry to hear that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5015 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:36 pm

Anyone remember those Houston Chronicle articles I shared the other day? Joe Bastardi just tweeted out one of the same stories a little while ago.

I’m afraid that the effects of all this on some of our state’s vegetation, wildlife resources, and coastal fishing resources could be catastrophic again.

————-
@BigJoeBastardi — Well worth the read given what's coming for Texas. BTW after the Sunday Monday storm, another snow and ice event midweek, Only after that does warming come. Oklahoma and Texas facing a historic event.

https://www.chron.com/sports/outdoors/article/Effects-lessons-of-1983-freeze-evident-on-Texas-5092926.php
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5016 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:41 pm

CMC is still light(er) with the precip compared to the others (it doesn't like the first storm that much from the start) but still snows and is cold. It loves the 2nd storm.

note: it does the precip break out thing with the leading wave late Sat-Sun.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5017 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:44 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Often they just upgrade directly to blizzard warnings from winter storm warnings as needed. I don’t recall ever having a blizzard watch first either in Kansas or when I lived west in Midland. It just upgraded as they realized criteria would be met.

Sad news: neighbor’s sister-in-law died in the car pileup. :(


I’m so very sorry to hear this news. I will be praying for her family. :cry:

So much sadness in the world right now. Lost one of my best friends to CV-19 last month and it has honestly taken some of the “fun” out of this winter weather event for me.

Plus, I realize the real hardships this is going to bring to many. This kind of cold is going to hurt.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5018 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:52 pm

0z Ukmet gives DFW 1-2" snows by noon Sunday with the leading disturbance and ends the snow drought early.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5019 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:CMC is still light(er) with the precip compared to the others (it doesn't like the first storm that much from the start) but still snows and is cold. It loves the 2nd storm.

note: it does the precip break out thing with the leading wave late Sat-Sun.


:double: check out the band just east of the metro again almost all of this is Wednesday

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5020 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:00 am

Ntxw wrote:0z Ukmet gives DFW 1-2" snows by noon Sunday with the leading disturbance and ends the snow drought early.


10:1 gives everyone 2-4" for the UK so bump that up a little it with ratios. Surprisingly the best snows for system 1 isn't Texas or Oklahoma on it...Louisiana?

It's a cold run. DFW pushes all time record low and so does OKC.
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