Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Brandon8181
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5261 Postby Brandon8181 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:58 pm

jasons2k wrote:An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.


Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5262 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:00 pm

NWS-Amarillo

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches. Winds chills as low as -15 to -30 degrees.

* WHERE...Southern Texas Panhandle.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
could impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills as low as
25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 30 minutes.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5263 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:00 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Winter Storm Watches have just been hoisted for southeast Texas!


SHV still napping.

I hate to be snarky about NWS but they are slow with every winter storm historically especially here on the western edge. Thankfully we have FW CWA coverage a few miles to our west.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5264 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:02 pm

NWS-San Angelo

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
NOON CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow accumulations and dangerous wind chills. Total
snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Blowing and drifting
snow is expected Sunday night.

* WHERE...All of West Central Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Near whiteout conditions. Power outages. Blowing and
drifting snow will drop visibility to near zero at times. Travel
could become impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely
impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills as low as 20
below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as
30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Air temperatures in the single digits and
colder may burst pipes. Pets and livestock will need extra
protection. Use extra caution when using fireplaces, stoves, and
space heaters.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5265 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:04 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.


Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?


Texas term for a really strong arctic blast. Usually without clouds, you could see the incredible deep blue skies approaching from the north before we had pollution. Usually we'd go from 70 to below freezing in a matter of hours. Locals are familiar with it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5266 Postby Brandon8181 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:05 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Winter Storm Watches have just been hoisted for southeast Texas!


SHV still napping.

I hate to be snarky about NWS but they are slow with every winter storm historically especially here on the western edge. Thankfully we have FW CWA coverage a few miles to our west.


What? Everyone deserves a good nap. Just kidding :) I guess, well, I grew up in Grayson County and followed the NWS FW very closely. In the vast majority of cases they always seemed exceptional. I know it is of course easy to be the Monday morning quarter back; I guess overall I believe the performance of Fort Worth is just about as good as it gets especially some of their extremely detailed AFD’s. Hopefully we will hear from our local NWS soon with good information for the public. I can’t imagine the difficulty being in their position having to warn and try to properly prepare the public.
Last edited by Brandon8181 on Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5267 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:07 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.


Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5268 Postby jasons2k » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5269 Postby Brandon8181 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.


Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?


Texas term for a really strong arctic blast. Usually without clouds, you could see the incredible deep blue skies approaching from the north before we had pollution. Usually we'd go from 70 to below freezing in a matter of hours. Locals are familiar with it.


I may be too young. I’m 37 and I’ve heard the term norther, but not blue norther.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5270 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.


Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.


Interesting that the FW NWS is going with 3-6", this looks more like a 5-10" plus with these ratios
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5271 Postby Brandon8181 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:13 pm

jasons2k wrote:My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...


Ha, yes sir! My high is 29 assuming I don’t warm anymore which I don’t think we will. The forecast and low tonight is 30°.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5272 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.


Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.


The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5273 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:14 pm

jasons2k wrote:My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...


You and I don't live far apart ... I just got above freezing at 2 pm in Magnolia and now it's dropping again.

Methinks we could see lows near zero Tuesday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5274 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:16 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.


Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.


The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.


It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5275 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:17 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.


Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.


Interesting that the FW NWS is going with 3-6", this looks more like a 5-10" plus with these ratios


Start conservative and then raise totals, if necessary.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5276 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:18 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.


Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.


Interesting that the FW NWS is going with 3-6", this looks more like a 5-10" plus with these ratios


They used 12:1 in the AFD
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5277 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:18 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5278 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.


The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.


It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/QqtKYHj.gif


Who does this favor for snow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5279 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.


The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.


It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/QqtKYHj.gif


Does the model not notice the SE ridge? You’d think that would slow it down?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5280 Postby benrayrog » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:21 pm

As a kid, I remember hearing the great Harold Taft say when a blue norther was on the way: "There's nothing but a barb wire fence in between here and Oklahoma to stop it."
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